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ssscj80
ssscj80
Joined: Jul 7, 2017
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July 7th, 2017 at 9:09:37 PM permalink
Thank you all in advanced.

I have been reading and learning from this website for quite some time but I had a pretty bad run today and I just want some advice for the future reference of when to cut my losses and run. I followed the strategy of playing strictly Don't Pass/Don't Come and maxing out the odds with a base bet of $5 and 6x (for the odds). The whole thing took about 3 1/2 hours which by the end I had zero. I followed all the steps and I believe there were no obvious mistake made during the period (other than losing everything).

Initial Bank role $640
Steps I took:
$5 Don't Pass, then, after point set, $30 on Odds
$5 Don't Come, then, $30 on Odds

The highest the "winnings" got was about $740 (including the original $640) and that was after going down about half. As I previously alluded to I lost everything. Any recommendations?


Thank you
sabre
sabre 
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DeMango
July 7th, 2017 at 9:16:07 PM permalink
Stop gambling?
RisingDough
RisingDough
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DeMango
July 8th, 2017 at 1:09:36 AM permalink
Quote: ssscj80

Thank you all in advanced.

I have been reading and learning from this website for quite some time but I had a pretty bad run today and I just want some advice for the future reference of when to cut my losses and run. I followed the strategy of playing strictly Don't Pass/Don't Come and maxing out the odds with a base bet of $5 and 6x (for the odds). The whole thing took about 3 1/2 hours which by the end I had zero. I followed all the steps and I believe there were no obvious mistake made during the period (other than losing everything).

Initial Bank role $640
Steps I took:
$5 Don't Pass, then, after point set, $30 on Odds
$5 Don't Come, then, $30 on Odds

The highest the "winnings" got was about $740 (including the original $640) and that was after going down about half. As I previously alluded to I lost everything. Any recommendations?


Thank you




There is no way to beat craps since it is a negative expectation game. Every bet you make on a craps table costs you money over the long run so it is inevitable that you will go broke. How quickly that happens is just a matter of variance. You could last quite a long time or you might lose it very quickly but the only thing we know for sure is eventually you will lose it all if you continue to play this game.

So if your going to continue to play craps just understand that it cannot be beat in the long run and treat it as an entertainment cost. Some games can be beaten craps is not one of them. (Unless you cheat)

Hope this helps!

RD
What is life if not a gamble?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 8th, 2017 at 1:18:33 AM permalink
Quote: ssscj80

I have been reading and learning from this website for quite some time but I had a pretty bad run today and I just want some advice for the future reference of when to cut my losses and run.



it would not be meaningful to cut your losses and run since i am assuming you mean that you would come back on another day to play. if you play the same amount of time it doesn't matter which days you play on. however, if cutting your losses for the day means that you would spend less time overall playing then that would be a good idea. leave with the smallest win that is acceptable to you. you are playing a negative expectancy house game and even though you are playing against a very small house edge because you are taking free odds it is not possible to devise a money management or bet selection system that will win in the long run. anyone who says otherwise is mistaken. if you are having fun and not losing too much overall and enjoying the game because you sometimes win that's great. it's very important to be realistic.
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
NokTang
NokTang
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July 8th, 2017 at 1:30:43 AM permalink
If you play the don't pass, and don't lay any odds....

followed by the don't come, and again, don't lay any odds...

followed by a second don't come(if the above two not resolved), and again, don't lay any odds...

Stop at that point, with three points established, and wait for the seven out....(if one of the three hits, you start again with another don't come/pass)..the magic number is three points in action.

You can indeed make a living at craps. It's incredibility boring but money is money, food is food, shelter is shelter.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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ontariodealer
July 8th, 2017 at 1:36:06 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

If you play the don't pass, and don't lay any odds....

followed by the don't come, and again, don't lay any odds...

followed by a second don't come(if the above two not resolved), and again, don't lay any odds...

Stop at that point, with three points established, and wait for the seven out....(if one of the three hits, you start again with another don't come/pass)..the MAGIC number is three points in action.

You can indeed make a living at craps. It's incredibility boring but money is money, food is food, shelter is shelter.



"that which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."

your bogus claims are dismissed. you are unbelievably touting MAGIC numbers. why don't you give everybody a break dude.
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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odiousgambit
July 8th, 2017 at 9:00:24 AM permalink
Quote: ssscj80

.. I just want some advice for the future reference of when to cut my losses and run...


I think reflecting on your "goals" would be helpful:
1) Make an obscene amount of money / Break the bank.
2) Make my gambling money last as long as possible while I soak up free drinks and qualify for comps.
3) What is "gambling money"... If I don't win, the rent doesn't get paid.
4) Make x dollars.
5) Have fun.

So depending on where you match up above (or what mix of the above suits you), the advice would be:
1) Never stop. In fact, you should continue to place more Come bets with max odds, or put the whole nut on the line, and parlay it until the owner comes down with the deed to the joint.
2) Establish a session loss limit (e.g. $500) and stick to it. Only make a line bet without odds to stretch your bankroll.
3) Stop gambling and get help. Addiction is real and destroys lives.
4) Establish a session loss limit to go with your win goal. Your two bets are among the best the casino offers, but as has been mentioned above, are still tilted in the house's favor. Consider switching to >100% pay
back video poker, sports wagering or live poker if you want to take the edge back. Sports wagering and poker take skill and bankrolls to be positive, and even then luck could still gut you.
5) 3.5 hours for $640? That's on par with two rounds of resort golf or a helicopter ride to the Grand Canyon. All in all, did you have "fun" (Fun of winning time + free drinks + comps + admiration from inexperienced players as you explain why the Don'ts are a better wager than the Pass + excitement) > (Having to eat Subway instead of Lawry's + "ATM Walk of Shame")? If so, you may consider the money well spent. If not, consider other leisure activities like golf or sightseeing.
Last edited by: Ayecarumba on Jul 8, 2017
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 8th, 2017 at 10:33:28 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Only make a line bet without odds to stretch your bankroll.



Good advice in the post, and this line is good advice too, but I would modify it to say "you don't have to do full odds" ... that includes all the way up to "no odds", sure.

The only thing is though, is the line bets in Craps have very low variance. If you do no odds at all it is very boring. For myself I gamble less often instead so I can put something on the odds.

My 2 cents for the OP is take the better advice here - if you can figure out what is good and what is bad, maybe that is just a rite of passage you need to undertake. But you can also go to the Wizard of Odds site and compare the advice.

As for losing $6-700, get used to that or quit if the money is meaningful to you. The way you bet does say the day is coming when you'll win that sometimes too. It's the amount on average you lose that matters. Most of us wind up down in the long run, in my case it is roughly the amount I've been tipping over the years.
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." .......... Mark Twain
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
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July 8th, 2017 at 2:05:37 PM permalink
You were crushed by a wide variance.

You are in good company. The original Nick the Greek played Craps on the Dark side, but he had much better sense than you have regarding bankroll exposure per outcome.

You must control your variance by limiting your exposure per outcome. Wild swings of fortune are normal even with naked Flat bets. When you are also laying Odds and risking more than you can win, the swings are much wilder. You were laying a huge five percent on each number. Only 20 net losses wiped you out. Your exposure per outcome should have been less than half that percentage.

With a table stake of $640 and a Dark preference, your patience and endurance technique calls for Flat bets of $5 and Odds bets of $6 or $12. Not until you have won an appreciable amount, at least half of your starting stake, should you consider boosting your exposure.

Think of yourself as awaiting your personal luck. You can play all day and go nowhere dramatic, waiting for your wagon to finally arrive. After it arrives, then you can begin to really play.
ssscj80
ssscj80
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July 8th, 2017 at 2:06:17 PM permalink
Thank you all for the guidance and I will keep it in mind as well as the commandment that the Wizard has which says to be ready to loose (paraphrasing).

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