March 24th, 2017 at 12:21:42 PM
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I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low

Optimize Survival

Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return

Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.

2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.

3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.

4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).

You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low

Optimize Survival

Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return

Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE | RTN |
---|---|

2 | 30 |

3 | 15 |

4 | 15 |

5 | 20 |

6 | 20 |

7 | -100 |

8 | 20 |

9 | 15 |

10 | 15 |

11 | 15 |

12 | 30 |

AVG R | 19.5 |

ROLL R | 5.13 |

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE | RTN |
---|---|

2 | 20 |

3 | 10 |

4 | 10 |

5 | 11 |

6 | 11 |

7 | -61 |

8 | 11 |

9 | 10 |

10 | 10 |

11 | 10 |

12 | 20 |

AVG R | 12.3 |

ROLL R | 4.96 |

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll | AVG R | Risk | Survival |
---|---|---|---|

1 | $- | $- | 1.000000 |

2 | $20 | $100 | 0.888889 |

3 | $20 | $100 | 0.772119 |

4 | $12 | $61 | 0.667353 |

5 | $12 | $61 | 0.576129 |

Total | $64 | $61 |

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.

2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.

3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.

4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).

You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of | Don't Come Strategy | Come Strategy | House Edge |
---|---|---|---|

4 | Max Odds on DC | No Odds | 0.83 |

5 | No Odds | Max Odds on Come | 0.85 |

6 | No Odds | Max Odds on Come | 0.85 |

8 | No Odds | Max Odds on Come | 0.85 |

9 | No Odds | Max Odds on Come | 0.85 |

10 | Max Odds on DC | No Odds | 0.83 |

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein

March 24th, 2017 at 12:39:48 PM
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An excellent idea. I will consider it thrown out.Quote:JoelDezeI just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps

March 24th, 2017 at 1:48:29 PM
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Craps strategies make my brain hurt.

March 24th, 2017 at 3:20:54 PM
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Quote:JoelDezeI just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low

Optimize Survival

Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return

Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE RTN 2 30 3 15 4 15 5 20 6 20 7 -100 8 20 9 15 10 15 11 15 12 30 AVG R 19.5 ROLL R 5.13

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE RTN 2 20 3 10 4 10 5 11 6 11 7 -61 8 11 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 20 AVG R 12.3 ROLL R 4.96

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll AVG R Risk Survival 1 $- $- 1.000000 2 $20 $100 0.888889 3 $20 $100 0.772119 4 $12 $61 0.667353 5 $12 $61 0.576129 Total $64 $61

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.

2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.

3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.

4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).

You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of Don't Come Strategy Come Strategy House Edge 4 Max Odds on DC No Odds 0.83 5 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 6 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 8 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 9 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 10 Max Odds on DC No Odds 0.83

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

You put a lot of thought into this.. I wouldn't say it is a winning strategy however. Tell me where you find the 7 to come every 8.5 rolls... please! You are lucky if you get 3 numbers before the 7.

'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'

March 24th, 2017 at 3:42:40 PM
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Quote:JoelDezeI just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

<snip>

The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

Thank you, Joel. for your bravery given the almost certain of attack by multiple mathaholics who proudly point out that hedged bets don't work as well as pass line + odds, notwithstanding your comment that the system works "rather well" based on your experience. And, thank you for all your effort creating the many tables to explain your system so completely. Much appreciated.

The system you describe in this post is far less aggressive than the Iron Cross strategy you shared earlier this month. I tried that system (at home) and -- as one might expect -- had some results up and some results down. As a tried-and-true Bottom-Feeder, I find the system in this post a bit more "comfortable." I think it makes sense to "regress" your bets after several rolls, as you do. Then, it's just a question of whether or not the 7-out comes home early, catching your hand in all the other candy jars.

Quote:JoelDezeYou can also attempt to take advantage of streaks

Hmmm... I don't suppose anyone ever suggested you thrive on risk. But, why not wave the red flag in front of bull when the point is a 4 or 10 by max odds on your DC bet? You fearlessly wave the red flag in front of the bet-systems-don't-work crowd. On a hot table, systems like yours sure pull in the money.

IMHO, discussions like yours are some of the things that makes craps the fun-happy-sad-brutal game it is. I hope you will continue to share your ideas about craps betting strategies and to report how the systems are working out for you.

March 24th, 2017 at 6:18:56 PM
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Okay, I have been taken to task for what some feel was a very rude rejection of the 'system' under discussion. Part of this is motivated by my infamous inability to deal with mathematics. I do realize that certain 'real world' strategies work very well against the 'math' from time to time. Every dealer has seen weird things happen. So have the players.Quote:FleaStiffAn excellent idea. I will consider it thrown out.

Its just Damon Runyon seems to be right most of the time...that's the way to bet.

March 24th, 2017 at 9:22:20 PM
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Are you selling this system?

March 24th, 2017 at 10:07:58 PM
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I can only thank gooddness people like you don't spend so much time and effort on actual AP. Yes that's a compliment . Half assed compliment, but one all the same.Quote:JoelDezeI just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low

Optimize Survival

Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return

Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE RTN 2 30 3 15 4 15 5 20 6 20 7 -100 8 20 9 15 10 15 11 15 12 30 AVG R 19.5 ROLL R 5.13

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE RTN 2 20 3 10 4 10 5 11 6 11 7 -61 8 11 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 20 AVG R 12.3 ROLL R 4.96

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll AVG R Risk Survival 1 $- $- 1.000000 2 $20 $100 0.888889 3 $20 $100 0.772119 4 $12 $61 0.667353 5 $12 $61 0.576129 Total $64 $61

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.

2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.

3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.

4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).

You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of Don't Come Strategy Come Strategy House Edge 4 Max Odds on DC No Odds 0.83 5 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 6 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 8 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 9 No Odds Max Odds on Come 0.85 10 Max Odds on DC No Odds 0.83

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

March 24th, 2017 at 11:27:29 PM
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Have fun with your strategy.

I love to play with different strategies also (on <100% and >100% games).

They are a way of making your own custom game and redistributing probabilities and payouts.

Some people complain that they don't create a "winning" game out of a "losing" game,

however this is somewhat misguided. None of us plays infinitely long.

------

How can we win?

(1) We can get lucky.

Win enough money to (a) quit a winner (b) invest the money somewhere else, where interest pays for more than 100% of our gambling losses (c) shift to a winning strategy (d) play a losing strategy but at small enough stakes, that we can play for a very long time.

Strategies (probability redistrbution, and money-management) may lower the odds of going broke right away, while raising the odds of a "big win" and getting lucky in the beginning, while slightly lowering the payouts of the intermediate results.

e.g. Reverse martingale gives more small losses, while raising the odds of a "big win" when you win 10-20 times in a row.

If you have 1,000 units, start at 1 unit, and only increase after wins, decreasing back to 1 until after a loss...you will play at least 1,000 times (all losses) before you go broke.

If you have 1,000 units, and do a 2-unit flat bet, you might only last 500 bets before going broke.

...regardless of what the odds are on the game. 101% or 99%.

(2) We can play for enough hours, days, weeks, months, years that we are happy. Our (CE) Certainty Equivalent is positive, even though our eventual EV is negative.

(3) We can pay a "winning" strategy with enough bankroll for long enough, that (barring ectremely bad luck; e.g. dying in a car crash) we expect to be winning $X (say $10,000/yr or $100,000/yr) with 95-99% probability.

(4) ....or we play long enough to get a stock tip which allows us to make a fortune.

(5) ...etc, etc...

I get a little tired of people who think that #3 is the ONLY way to win.

In reality, I think most successful gamblers do #1 before #3... Just as most successful entrepreneurs will tell you that they got butt-lucky on their first company, when they were clueless as sh**, and got enough money to make the mistakes later in life (on their 2nd, 3rd, etc... companies) without going broke.

-----

I often play "stupid losing games" with $100-10,000. Sometimes I have winning streaks for many months...or even a year. On one game, I've been stupid lucky for about 1 year now.

Mathematically my overall profit is "sound", because the amount I play is less than 1% of my profit.

e.g. if you make $1,000/month and gamble a maximum $10/month, it can't drop your profits by more than 1%.

One of my AP friends gambles $20-30 at the end of each day on random stuff. One time he won almost $20K...enough to cover 700-1,000+ more days of gambling.

I love to play with different strategies also (on <100% and >100% games).

They are a way of making your own custom game and redistributing probabilities and payouts.

Some people complain that they don't create a "winning" game out of a "losing" game,

however this is somewhat misguided. None of us plays infinitely long.

------

How can we win?

(1) We can get lucky.

Win enough money to (a) quit a winner (b) invest the money somewhere else, where interest pays for more than 100% of our gambling losses (c) shift to a winning strategy (d) play a losing strategy but at small enough stakes, that we can play for a very long time.

Strategies (probability redistrbution, and money-management) may lower the odds of going broke right away, while raising the odds of a "big win" and getting lucky in the beginning, while slightly lowering the payouts of the intermediate results.

e.g. Reverse martingale gives more small losses, while raising the odds of a "big win" when you win 10-20 times in a row.

If you have 1,000 units, start at 1 unit, and only increase after wins, decreasing back to 1 until after a loss...you will play at least 1,000 times (all losses) before you go broke.

If you have 1,000 units, and do a 2-unit flat bet, you might only last 500 bets before going broke.

...regardless of what the odds are on the game. 101% or 99%.

(2) We can play for enough hours, days, weeks, months, years that we are happy. Our (CE) Certainty Equivalent is positive, even though our eventual EV is negative.

(3) We can pay a "winning" strategy with enough bankroll for long enough, that (barring ectremely bad luck; e.g. dying in a car crash) we expect to be winning $X (say $10,000/yr or $100,000/yr) with 95-99% probability.

(4) ....or we play long enough to get a stock tip which allows us to make a fortune.

(5) ...etc, etc...

I get a little tired of people who think that #3 is the ONLY way to win.

In reality, I think most successful gamblers do #1 before #3... Just as most successful entrepreneurs will tell you that they got butt-lucky on their first company, when they were clueless as sh**, and got enough money to make the mistakes later in life (on their 2nd, 3rd, etc... companies) without going broke.

-----

I often play "stupid losing games" with $100-10,000. Sometimes I have winning streaks for many months...or even a year. On one game, I've been stupid lucky for about 1 year now.

Mathematically my overall profit is "sound", because the amount I play is less than 1% of my profit.

e.g. if you make $1,000/month and gamble a maximum $10/month, it can't drop your profits by more than 1%.

One of my AP friends gambles $20-30 at the end of each day on random stuff. One time he won almost $20K...enough to cover 700-1,000+ more days of gambling.

March 25th, 2017 at 5:30:33 AM
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to simply bet less and not much on odds will achieve thatQuote:JoelDezeThe goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low

that's one thingQuote:Optimize Survival

quite another! This statement, although not claiming to be 100% "plus" , is rather disappointing not only to "mathletes" but those of us who knew way back in 4th grade that the House has an edge.Quote:Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return

a player needs no special strategy for thatQuote:Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

And then I look at the charts and see that the results are not tied to weighted probabilities.

Joel, you are smarter than the average bear so I won't claim there isn't some sense somewhere in your strategy, but I long ago vowed to not waste time on any such as you've posted.

"No, I will weep no more. In such a night
To shut me out! ...
O, that way madness lies; let me shun that;
No more of that" - King Lear deciding he has to accept bad Variance