Don't pass and Iron Cross

I can't believe I've stumbled upon such a great and informative site. Going to be in Vegas next week and I've been practicing craps/blackjack for a few weeks now. In working on different strategies, money management etc for craps I've noticed my best results from the simulators have come from playing the DP/odds with the IC after CO. My money management has been $50 on DP at CO then full odds. $25 each on the 5,6, 8 & field. Each win I take winnings and leave original bet. In this scenario a 7/11 on CO I lose my DP bet and then lose everything without winning anything if point is made on 2nd roll. Utilizing multiple simulators this strategy has been successful to varying degrees, but the simulators are not live action and don't factor in the skill (or lack thereof) of a real shooter.

I wanted to get you're opinions on this strategy and if anyone has done something similar with tweaks. Are there simulation calculators out there that can be run to determine house advantage of this over the long run. I know the house advantage of DP with odds is .273% (MGM Grand) and IC alone is about 3%, but haven't been able to find the house advantage of this combination of long term.

Thanks,

Jim

EV is linear. E(X+Y) = E(X) + E(Y). Just add the edges up.

Edit: Add the dollars, not the percentages.

every bet on the craps table (aside from odds bets) is negative expectation. adding more negative bets together will always be worse than sticking to one of those bets individually. all this hedging you're doing comes at a cost of higher expected loss in the long run.

if you want to enjoy craps, stick to the lowest house edge bets.

determine how much you want to bet, and then bet the minimum on the line that lets you get that entire amount in play by taking or laying odds. that's all there is to it. in this way, your combined house edge for your desired bet amount will be minimized.


example: you want to put $40 in play every shooter.

bet $10 on the line and $30 odds. that way you're only paying house edge on $10, not the whole $40.

Quote: imaterpsfan

...and don't factor in the skill (or lack thereof) of a real shooter.

There is no "skill" involved in playing craps.

Quote: Beethoven9th

There is no "skill" involved in playing craps.

the only skill involved in playing craps is understanding payouts to make sure you don't get short-changed, which happens almost every session if you don't correct it.

Quote: imaterpsfan

I can't believe I've stumbled upon such a great and informative site. Going to be in Vegas next week and I've been practicing craps/blackjack for a few weeks now. In working on different strategies, money management etc for craps I've noticed my best results from the simulators have come from playing the DP/odds with the IC after CO. My money management has been $50 on DP at CO then full odds. $25 each on the 5,6, 8 & field. Each win I take winnings and leave original bet. In this scenario a 7/11 on CO I lose my DP bet and then lose everything without winning anything if point is made on 2nd roll. Utilizing multiple simulators this strategy has been successful to varying degrees, but the simulators are not live action and don't factor in the skill (or lack thereof) of a real shooter.

I wanted to get you're opinions on this strategy and if anyone has done something similar with tweaks. Are there simulation calculators out there that can be run to determine house advantage of this over the long run. I know the house advantage of DP with odds is .273% (MGM Grand) and IC alone is about 3%, but haven't been able to find the house advantage of this combination of long term.

Thanks,

Jim

It is your choice if you want to bet that way, but do keep in mind that for every shooter you put at risk:
1) $25/5, $24/6, $24/8 and also $25/field. total wager $98.00 every roll.
2) Even though it's exciting to collect money from every roll, you still need to win profit to make up for the $98.00 in wagers.
3) Beware of those PSO (Point, 7-Out)shooters (There are at least 4:14 that will PSO per round) that is $98x4/loss = $392 per table round.
4) There is 2:14 shooters will roll 2 and 12 to give you "Double the bubble" wins resulting in profit.
5) The remaining 8:14 will randomly roll 5's, 6's & 8's followed by 7 giving you close to 50/50 chance to win/lose your wager.

I tried a strategy back in the day betting $10/5, $12/6, $12/8 and $5/Field.
strategy was to press each place bet 1 unit after a win and parley the $5 Field for 5 wins in a row. (Pays $160.00) or in your case ($800 betting $25/Field)
(The reason I chose 5 wins in a row on the field was because that's the average win on a field bet even though I've seen the field numbers come in at most 12 times in a row)

Problem is it catches up to you before the weekend is over you are chasing your losses even without the parley and pressing.

I personally do not recommend the "Iron Cross" to anyone, well maybe my worst enemy.

Great information from everyone and I really appreciate it. Part of your response CG is why I posed this question. In this scenario, my DP bet before CO is double what my place/field bets would be. After the point is established, I back up with odds and move with my IC bets. If the shooter PSO's then I lose the $98, but win the DP/Odds. The point determines my odds and payouts, but it's more than the $98. I agree that the IC by itself is not a good way to play, but it was something I noted over multiple simulators and thought I'd reach out to get thoughts

From watching this strategy play out on the simulators I get killed on 7/11 CO's and Point/Point rolls and works best with a shooter who goes on an extended roll

Typically, I follow what SodaWater suggested, stick to the PL/DP with odds and enjoy the night. Occasionally I'll lay/place, but that just depends how I'm playing.

If you are so hedged that you will not lose much, then surely you can not make all that much at all.

Make your decision... accept the consequences. Don't hedge.

Quote: imaterpsfan

I can't believe I've stumbled upon such a great and informative site.
Utilizing multiple simulators this strategy has been successful to varying degrees, but the simulators are not live action and don't factor in the skill (or lack thereof) of a real shooter.

Welcome!
sounds like lots of action on every roll!
hard to place a $ amount on the value of such fun!

Quote: imaterpsfan

Are there simulation calculators out there that can be run to determine house advantage of this over the long run. I know the house advantage of DP with odds is .273% (MGM Grand) and IC alone is about 3%, but haven't been able to find the house advantage of this combination of long term.
Thanks,
Jim

yes. try WinCraps
I get just under 1% HE for 3X Field pay
here is 1 million dice rolls
it shows the expected HE to be 1.44% with 2x Field pays
HE is per bets resolved and not per roll


you can also change the dice probability distribution and the on-axis percentages for your (others) current DI abilities too.

I be in Las Vegas over the March 23rd week
Please leave some money for me to win.

Nice first post Sugar,
Sugar


Sally