Don't pass and come bets
So has anyone ever done the don't pass with odds, and then regular come bets with odds. Then the seven-out has one bet win, but hitting the come bet also results in a win. So it isn't a bonehead pass/don't pass situation, but it still kind of feels wrong to me.
Has anyone played around with that? I have seen don't pass and place bets, don't pass and don't come, but never don't pass and come.
Mathematically, betting a DP with odds and then come with odds is the same as betting pass with odds and then come with odds, but the first one sounds way less fun to me.
The point of craps is to have fun, so if that sounds fun to you, do it. It will lose at exactly the same rate, though, as pass with odds + come with odds. The wins and losses will just take on different patterns.
Quote: ChampagneFireballI usually bet the pass line and 1-2 come bets, or if I'm doing well, continually place the come bet. I like the extra action instead of waiting for one number to show. But the when I get several come bets out there, the seven-out can hurt.
So has anyone ever done the don't pass with odds, and then regular come bets with odds. Then the seven-out has one bet win, but hitting the come bet also results in a win. So it isn't a bonehead pass/don't pass situation, but it still kind of feels wrong to me.
Has anyone played around with that? I have seen don't pass and place bets, don't pass and don't come, but never don't pass and come.
This is done quite a bit actually as the DP is more like a hedge to protect against your come bets. Just the same as playing 100 on DP and then placing 96 across.
The odds on the DP is a smart move because thats where the good money comes from but the come bets w/odds... not as good.
But if you were to try example: 100DP and after point is established. Place all the rest of the numbers with 15/18 each along with a 5 or 10.00 come, then play the "come bet/ goes to / down w/max odds/ then you have something going on that will turn heads toward your ever growing chip tray.
I play this way many times but I also incorporate the field bet just for kicks. Oh and don't forget the 5.00 fire bet.
Pure "genious", I tell you.Quote: CrapsGeniouscome bets w/odds... not as good.
Pure freaking "genious"!Quote: CrapsGeniousBut if you were to try example: 100DP and after point is established. Place all the rest of the numbers with 15/18 each along with a 5 or 10.00 come, then play the "come bet/ goes to / down w/max odds/ then you have something going on that will turn heads toward your ever growing chip tray.
Yeah, don't forget to make a bet that has one of the highest house advantages in the casino.Quote: CrapsGeniousOh and don't forget the 5.00 fire bet.
Quote: Beethoven9thPure "genious", I tell you.
Pure freaking "genious"!
Yeah, don't forget to make a bet that has one of the highest house advantages in the casino.
Hey I've won 2x 6 number firebets for 5k each, 5x 5number for 1250 each totaling 16k and i probably lost $5.00 at least 2000 times. But I've also hedged that firebet at least 100 times at the 4th point and won @ 100.00 each thats another 10k so yeah... Don't forget to bet the firebet.
So its Dont Pass, followed by two Come Bets, followed by DontCome bets. All with odds.
Why are people here seeing hedging the wrong way? It is guarantee money from both sides.Quote: 98ClubsActually, hedging is not a good idea, unless you happen to think the next roll is a 7-out, so you make the lowest H.A. bet on a 7-win. In that case it IS a COME bet, but I would not take the odds. Just a thought.
Quote: CrapsGeniousWhy are people here seeing hedging the wrong way? It is guarantee money from both sides.
Pure freakin "genious", I tell you!
Quote: CrapsGeniousHey I've won 2x 6 number firebets for 5k each, 5x 5number for 1250 each totaling 16k and i probably lost $5.00 at least 2000 times. But I've also hedged that firebet at least 100 times at the 4th point and won @ 100.00 each thats another 10k so yeah... Don't forget to bet the firebet.
If we believe your numbers, you are a winner on the fire bet overall. Fine. Some people may win overall in craps (though probably not too many) because there is a chance of winning but a lot better chance of losing. The fire bet has a high house advantage but can put you ahead pretty quickly if it hits big for you. Congratulations! Just being ahead doesn't make how you bet any better than the next guy...you've just had a good go of it. That's it. No genius. Nothing extra.
Quote: CrapsGeniousWhy are people here seeing hedging the wrong way? It is guarantee money from both sides.
Your hedging, to my knowledge, involves locking in a win on the fire bet, at least some of the fire bet hedging you do is this. Frankly, I'm not sure what the Wizard would think of that. He's for Arbitrage in sports betting, where you look for a situation where you can lock in a profit.
Of course, one problem would be that he would be against involving yourself into the initial high HE fire bets in the first place. I'm not sure we could get him to comment on the similarity of what you are doing to Arbitrage.
PS: we can say for sure that he is against hedging in general, having commented on that many times.
These are separate bets on separate events.
As to whether or not it is a smart play is up for debate.
IMHO, if you are playing a bet with a 25% HE, because it comes with the chance for a monster payout, why would you then remove the chance for the big win, by taking a guaranteed lesser amount? I understand this is very much a personal decision, but I personally am playing it for the big payout all the way.
An exercise for any of the bored math experts.....
If a person was to ALWAYS arbitrage the 6th Fire point, LAYING the 6th number to always guarantee the same amount whether the point is hit, or the 7 out occurs, what would that do to the HE of the Fire bet? Wouldn't this guaranteed payout amount, and the higher frequency of hit, change the HE of the Fire bet?
Quote: FleaStiffI don't see why anyone is even using the term hedging.
These are separate bets on separate events.
Well, not quite Flea. They are separate bets, but they would be resolved by the same event, with one bet a winner and the other bet a loser. Either a 7 or the number will result in both bets resolving at the same time.
But I agree, this is not a hedge. As odious said, it should be considered arbitrage.
Quote: RaleighCrapsAn exercise for any of the bored math experts.....
If a person was to ALWAYS arbitrage the 6th Fire point, LAYING the 6th number to always guarantee the same amount whether the point is hit, or the 7 out occurs, what would that do to the HE of the Fire bet? Wouldn't this guaranteed payout amount, and the higher frequency of hit, change the HE of the Fire bet?
Should we assume that they hedge only once the 6th point is established or on every point after the 5th is made (including the duplicates)?
Quote: RaleighCrapsWell, not quite Flea. They are separate bets, but they would be resolved by the same event, with one bet a winner and the other bet a loser. Either a 7 or the number will result in both bets resolving at the same time.
But I agree, this is not a hedge. As odious said, it should be considered arbitrage.
I think Flea was talking about my original query (don't pass and come) instead of the Firebet thing that has hijacked this thread.
With a don't pass and a come out there, both will resolve on a 7, so that's kind of like hedging, but the come bet can resolve (positively) without affecting the don't pass by hitting the come number. Similarly, the don't pass can resolve (negatively) without affecting the come by hitting the point.
Seems like the same situation as a pass and a come. They both resolve on a seven, and they individually resolve on different point numbers. The only thing is that instead of being both losing on a 7, one loses and one wins. The downside being that the pass/come bet combo only wins during a shooter's roll until the eventual seven-out, while the don't pass/come bets will win some and lose some.
Quote: endermikeShould we assume that they hedge only once the 6th point is established or on every point after the 5th is made (including the duplicates)?
Only the 6th point.
I know some people will arbitrage on the 5th point, but I really don't understand that one at all. A $10 bet gets $250 after the 4th point, and stands to win $1250 if the 5th point is made (there are many other payout schedules). If you decide to arbitrage on the 5th point, and the number hits, that is even less of a win you can guarantee on your arbitrage of the 6th point.
Quote: ChampagneFireballI think Flea was talking about my original query (don't pass and come) instead of the Firebet thing that has hijacked this thread.
With a don't pass and a come out there, both will resolve on a 7, so that's kind of like hedging, but the come bet can resolve (positively) without affecting the don't pass by hitting the come number. Similarly, the don't pass can resolve (negatively) without affecting the come by hitting the point.
Seems like the same situation as a pass and a come. They both resolve on a seven, and they individually resolve on different point numbers. The only thing is that instead of being both losing on a 7, one loses and one wins. The downside being that the pass/come bet combo only wins during a shooter's roll until the eventual seven-out, while the don't pass/come bets will win some and lose some.
My apologies for having been part of the Fire bet hijack.
If Flea was responding to your op, then I fully agree. Obviously, a Come bet and a Don't Come bet are a dumb hedge, since both resolve on the same roll. I can see why people would think that is a decent system, after all they get to pick 'favorable' numbers to put their odds on, but that just shows the player doesn't understand what the TRUE ODDs payout really means. If they did, they would understand that TRUE ODDs does not favor any number over another. The ones that are more likely to hit don't pay as well as the numbers that are least likely to hit, which pay you double.
By betting the DP, and then adding a Come bet, you are really just taking different positions on a given shooter, but you also have the possibility of winning both bets, losing both bets, or winning one and losing the other. Giving those conditions, I don't see how that can be considered a hedge. Each bet stands on its own merit.
Of course, you are neither increasing, nor decreasing, your chances of winning. You now have 2 bets on the table, each with a HE, so you have more money exposed to the HE.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/16248-craps-firebet-hedge-to-profits/5/#post336206
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyIt should be very easy to know what shooters to hedge against and those to just wait for a big payday.
Sally! Was that tongue in cheek?
