A few questions from a new member

This month playing electronic craps at Maryland live I have tracked every roll while I have been playing. The electronic craps there has a third black dice for sic bo and rolls every 30 seconds.

1824 rolls

284 sevens

15.57%

Half jokingly I must ask does the machine have an edge?



Also a rather interesting bit of info and I was wondering if these numbers are within the expected outcome as I bet WOTCO after after a seven out and have been toying with the idea of rebetting 160 across after a "wack" on from a come out 7:

Double 7 sequence happened 28 times in those 1824 rolls. (this includes 7 out leading to 7 PL winner)

Triple 7 happened 3 times

Quad 7 happened 1 time

Quin 7 never happened.

Which is better on a come out roll with a 5 dollar pass line bet:

Horn high ace duece

Same 5 dollars on C E?

Thanks in advance and I must say this is a great website!

Quote: Aztek

This month playing electronic craps at Maryland live I have tracked every roll while I have been playing. The electronic craps there has a third black dice for sic bo and rolls every 30 seconds.

This is the Organic Craps game by Interblock.
The dice floor vibrates for 3 to 5 seconds then stops vibrating and the dice (rounded edges) do their thing and you have a random dice roll.
Different from the Shoot to Win Craps machine that a shooter actually can "pop" the dice if they want to.

There is one machine here in SoCal. I like this game.
easy to play, good limits and sit down all day with free drinks.
I visit them on Monday.
That is alot of dice rolls you tracked

Quote: Aztek

1824 rolls
284 sevens
15.57%
Half jokingly I must ask does the machine have an edge?

of course.
Some stats for 1824 dice rolls
standard deviation for the 7 over 1824 rolls
(1824*(1/6)*(5/6))^0.5 = 15.91 or 16
20/16 = 1.25 SDs from the average or mean

very normal

here is a pic of what it looks like
just 1.25 SDs to the left of 304 (the mean or average)
In 1824 rolls, the number of 7s can fall any where in the red area.
Just random variation of random dice rolls.

Quote: Aztek

Also a rather interesting bit of info and I was wondering if these numbers are within the expected outcome
Double 7 sequence happened 28 times in those 1824 rolls. (this includes 7 out leading to 7 PL winner)
Triple 7 happened 3 times
Quad 7 happened 1 time
Quin 7 never happened.

284 sevens (expected number of dice rolls to see 284 7s is 1704)
Expected (average - not probability) number of runs of length X

Your data is real close to expectation

formula for the "or more' column
(p^runLength)*(1+((#rolls-runLength)*q))
p=1/6
q=5/6

For the average # of runs of exactly length 2
subtract runL3 result (6.567130) from runL 2 result (39.425926)
math left up to the reader

Quote: Aztek

Which is better on a come out roll with a 5 dollar pass line bet:
Horn high ace duece
Same 5 dollars on C E?

What do you mean by better?
They are 2 different bets with way different house edges.
Do you mean the one that is a better hedge bet?

I say place way more money on the pass line than a HornH2 or a C&E bet
You will lose less money this way over time, in a very short amount of time.

Good Luck at the table! or machine!

How long did you play to track the 1824 rolls?
IMO, the dice rolls from Organic Craps are very random

Wow thank you so much for the answers to my questions.


I suppose what I am looking for as to which is a better bet needs a little explanation.

After a seven out is rolled I place 160 across and 1 dollar each on the 12,3,2 and 11. I play for one hit and down using any proceeds to place the six and eight for 6 dollars each then play those numbers until the 7 shows. I do press the horn bets half the horn win. I am looking for some kind of $$ generation to "fund" that round of play so I place horn bets so I do not have any non decision making rolls.

If a point is made I play the pass line for 5 dollars and a horn high ace duece. I then place the 6 and 8 again once a new point is established as well as have my PL bet until the next 7 shows.

The reason I am doing the horn bets at all is I am looking for streaks of 3.

So far for the month of Feb my horn action on the come out has shown a profit of $186 off 385 hands. I was just wondering after another player made a comment to me that the CE bet would be better for streak exploiting but could not explain why. I figured here was a good place to ask.

As far as how long did I play. I have played 11 days this month and the rolls represent around 15 hours of playtime. So about and hour and a half each trip. (the casino is 10 minutes form my house) I am showing a profit of $1305 so that is about $87 an hour. 9 winning days and 2 losers.

I read somewhere on one of the websites taking your money down after one hit lowers the house edge. Is that true?

Quote: Aztek

The reason I am doing the horn bets at all is I am looking for streaks of 3.

So far for the month of Feb my horn action on the come out has shown a profit of $186 off 385 hands.
I was just wondering after another player made a comment to me that the CE bet would be better for streak exploiting but could not explain why.
I figured here was a good place to ask.

I figured you had streaks on your mind.

The C&E and Horn (just as the 7) all have the same probability of rolling on any one roll
6 chances in 36 or 1/6
So their streak probabilities and average number of streaks in N rolls will also be the same.

At 180 rolls, you have about a 50/50 chance (the median) of seeing no runs of length 3 or higher.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html

The 180 rolls comes from the average number of rolls to see 3 wins in a row... 258 * 70%
p=1/6
(1/p) + (1/p^2) + (1/p^3) = 6+36+216

at least 1 run of length 3 or more 50.18653% or 1 in 1.99
at least 2 runs of length 3 or more 14.99515% or 1 in 6.67
at least 3 runs of length 3 or more 3.05146% or 1 in 32.77

Nice to live so close to the casino.
I have one 20 minutes away but no Craps machine. That one is an hour each way.

Have fun with your style of play and keep on winning.

Thank you for your quick answers. I do appreciate it.

I developed this way of play after wargaming various betting strategies gleened from these websites. So far so good for 3 months but deep down I know it only works until it doesnt ;)