kulin
kulin
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Joined: Apr 9, 2012
August 17th, 2012 at 6:22:33 PM permalink
If you have a set amount you are willing to have on the table, what reduces the variance the most?

A) Full bet in a single pass bet with full odds
B) Table minimum divided between pass and come bets with full odds up to your set amount?
C) Full bet in a single don't pass bet laying the full odds
D) Table minimum divided between don't pass and don't come bets laying the full odds up to your set amount?

Does anyone have the numbers for these strategies to reduce variance or at least the ordering? I would like to intelligently chose my variance depending upon my mood, but with math like this, my intuition has constantly been proven wrong.
7craps
7craps
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August 17th, 2012 at 7:07:15 PM permalink
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1213-variance-in-craps/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/8764-craps-math-3-4-5-x-odds/

You can run the numbers easily from the above links

Basically, fewer larger $ bets have the highest variance.
Think about it.

32 across on the place bets. Win $7 (maybe9) or lose 32
bankroll swing 39 to$41

$30 Place6, wins $35
bankroll swing $65

not much difference between come/don't come odds variance
Odds adds variance. So if you want less variance, take less or no odds.
One needs about a 30-40% higher bankroll to play the don't with full odds vs the do with full odds.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
kulin
kulin
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Joined: Apr 9, 2012
August 17th, 2012 at 11:37:31 PM permalink
I wanted to thank you for the links. I have read through both threads and am trying to process the information.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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August 18th, 2012 at 1:02:07 AM permalink
A player can easily get himself in a certain state of mind where he hates the variance, we've all been there. But in Craps, assuming a game with random rolls, you have to remember the variance is your only hope. Thus, increasing the variance up to what you can stomach to risk should be your goal, not something you want to decrease. This is easily forgotten when you just took a beating.

If you have the edge in some game, OK! That's different. Now is the time to hate variance.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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