Donts And Laying

I was reading the thread about 1000x odds at the Riviera and a thought occurred to me:

It is known that there are up to two different segments of a Right/Wrong bet, the first one being the Come-Out roll, and the second one being trying to make (or miss) a point in the event that a point is established.

We also know that the HE on either Taking the Odds or Laying the Odds is 0%, making either the best bet in the house.

The 1000x Odds thread realy got me thinking about Laying/Taking odds, though, so I'm going to use 1000x Odds as an example and apply something (which may or may not have been done in the past...but probably has) that I am terming, "Effective House Edge."

If we assume that a Point of, "5," has been established on the Come-Out Roll, and the Odds Pay 3:2 if you're taking, then we know that we are 40% to make that point. This is also obvious because there are six ways to make a seven, four ways to make a five, and no other result (a point having been established) concludes the bet.

The effective HE playing the right way on a $5.00 bet:

Win $5.00 * .40 = $2.00

Lose $5.00 * .60 = $3.00

Expectation = $1.00 Lost 20% Effective HE

Given the expectation that we will lose $1.00 at this point, we then make our 1000x odds bet which pays true odds and has an HE of $0.00.

We Take the Odds for $5,000 and we have $5.00 out there at a HE of 20% or $1.00, so our total bets are exposed to an expectation of -$1.00.

In other words, the expectation on the total $5,005 is -$1.00. -(1/5005) = -.0001998002 which is also the HE on the money out there.

The effective HE playing the Dark Side

Win $5.00 *.60 = $3.00

Lose $5.00 * .40 = $2.00

Expectation = +$1.00 Won 20% Effective Player Edge

Given the expectation that we will win $1.00 at this point, we then make our 1000x odds bet which pays true odds and has an HE of $0.00

We Lay the Odds for $5,000 and we have $5.00 out there at a PE of 20% or $1.00, so our total bets are exposed to an expectation of $1.00.

In other words, the expectation on the total $5,005 is +$1.00. 1/5005 = .0001998002 which is also the PE on the money out there.

Questions and Summary

We do not make the decision to Lay the Odds or Take the Odds until the point has been established, but depending on what Way a player is going, the establishment of a point, in and of itself, either puts the player against a greater effective HE or effectively gives the player an edge. In the case of a Five or Nine, this edge is going to be either +.0001998002 or - .0001998002 depending on what side the player is playing.

It is obvious that the Right Way Bettor should take the odds in this situation because he reduces a 20% Effective House Edge to .0001998002% of the bet by doing so. Instead of a long term expected loss of $1.00 per $5.00 he has a long term expected loss of $1.00 per $5,005.00.

My question is, a point having been established, is it to the Don't Players advantage, in this and all occasions, to actually abstain from laying the odds at a 0% HE? In the event that the Don't Player does not Lay the Odds on this play he has a long term expected gain of $1.00 per $5.00, but if he were to lay 1000x odds, he has a long term expected gain of $1.00 per $5,005.00.

It seems to me that by Laying the Odds (an event that does not occur until after a point is established) the Right Way Bettor greatly fractionalizes what would normally be a tremendous effective HE but the Wrong Way Bettor destroys his effective edge.

I understand that the long-term answer to this question is that you cannot make a Don't Bet w/o a Come-Out roll, and assuming you are going to play Craps for more than one bet in your entire life, all of the 0% HE money that you can possibly get out there reduces the overall HE, which is largely due to a seven losing on the Come-Out.

However, let's just say for the heck of it that someone was only going to play one Craps game in his life...just to say he did it...if he puts money on the Don't AND a point is established, am I right that he would be better off not to Lay the Odds, in terms of PE%?

The problem is you have to take into account the come out roll when calculating the house edges. The P/DP odds do not exist in a vacuum; obviously, you have to get past the come out roll first, where the P has the advantage and the DP has the disadvantage.

After the comeout, it doesn't matter which side you lay odds on, you're going to get paid true no matter what. On a 1000x odds bet, nobody gives a f--k about the flat bet anyways (or long term house edge, for that matter), so pick your side and roll with it.

If I had to play one craps game in my life, and I had unlimited bankroll, I would play at the Riv and lay the max. Although I reserve the right to switch to the right side at the last minute depending on the weather and track conditions :)

Quote: teddys

The problem is you have to take into account the come out roll when calculating the house edges. The P/DP odds do not exist in a vacuum; obviously, you have to get past the come out roll first, where the P has the advantage and the DP has the disadvantage.

After the comeout, it doesn't matter which side you lay odds on, you're going to get paid true no matter what. On a 1000x odds bet, nobody gives a f--k about the flat bet anyways, so pick your side and roll with it.

If I had to play one craps game in my life, and I had unlimited bankroll, I would play at the Riv and lay the max. Although I reserve the right to switch to the right side at the last minute depending on the weather and track conditions :)

Thank you for the answer. I guess I am going to amend the question as not specific enough, by, "One Game," I literally meant, "One Decision." In this case, then, playing the Don't and a point having been established, would the player be better off not to Lay the Odds?

I only used 1000x because it made the math really easy to do mentally, and I happened to be reading that thread. If it were merely 2x odds, the reduction to the effective HE or PE would simply be a lesser percentage. However, the HE on the total bet would be reduced as would be the PE by taking the odds, considering only that one bet.

I might not be entirely sure what you're getting at, so I apologize in advance if I don't get it.

The way I would think of it, is to imagine a craps table where a player is allowed to place a bet on the DP+odds AFTER the point is established. Obviously, no casino in the world does this. But Joe Smith down the street just bought a craps table, and he's inviting his friends down to play. He's seen casinos allow players to make pass line bets AFTER a point is established, and not knowing the odds, he just assumes you should be able to do so on the DP as well.

So Joe Smith allowed you to make a DP bet after the point is established. Knowing the math, you're quick to jump on this. Of course, all of Joe Smith's other players are betting the pass line, and Joe Smith is making good money, so he doesn't even really notice that you're really doing better.

Ok, enough stupid assumptions. Bottom line, once the point is established, if you made a DP bet, you'd get paid 1:1 on the DP. If you bet DP and layed odds, you'd get 1:1 on the DP, and something less than that on the lay. So, it would seem obvious that, given this ability to bet after the point is made, it would make sense to throw your money on the DP.

Quote: Mission146

However, let's just say for the heck of it that someone was only going to play one Craps game in his life...just to say he did it...if he puts money on the Don't AND a point is established, am I right that he would be better off not to Lay the Odds, in terms of PE%?

The problem is that evaluating this decision in terms of PE% is incorrect/misleading.

The correct metric to use is Expectation, which is $1 in either case (0 or 1000x odds). So in terms of expectation, the player should be indifferent.

An illustration: Doubling in blackjack reduces the PE% by taking away the opportunity to continue to hit, but it is correct to double in some cases because it increases your expectation.

Konceptum,

I was tending towards something entirely different, but thank you for your answer.

DWheatley,

I see what you mean, now. The HE or PE is simply not a sensible metric to use because I should be looking at each bet as a separate bet as opposed to the entire amount on the table riding on it being a, "5," or "7."

I understand the truth in this, but then it would seem strange how people talk about Taking/Laying the Odds reducing the long term HE on the game because they are taking the odds bets and looking at them in relation to total bets.

First time I bet on a dog was when a friend asked me to go partners on his bets. Then after wheeling the dog on top in the trifecta, and betting in the TwinQuinella, my friend lost all credibility.
Time to get some INSURANCE BETS. Cominations, just in case, the lock did not hit the board. WTF ???

Seems to be the same strategy craps players use.

Quote: Mission146

DWheatley,

I see what you mean, now. The HE or PE is simply not a sensible metric to use because I should be looking at each bet as a separate bet as opposed to the entire amount on the table riding on it being a, "5," or "7."

I understand the truth in this, but then it would seem strange how people talk about Taking/Laying the Odds reducing the long term HE on the game because they are taking the odds bets and looking at them in relation to total bets.

The formula a gambler should be very interested in is:
EV / SD
expected value and standard deviation.
Most can grasp EV but do not comprehend or know how to calculate the variance/standard deviation SD or what good that even is to know..
here is a great place to start
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1213-variance-in-craps/


Most all casino games, for the player, results in a negative EV (-EV)
The SD is positive
So the closer one is to 0 with -ev/sd, the better.

The odds bet does not make the -EV higher, that stays the same.
The SD goes up.

And that is what one should look for.
The lowest values makes it possible to have the highest probability to break even or to be ahead after a number of bets.

With multiple bets, one can add EV and variance.
This makes it very easy to compare many different bets to each other.

Sally

Quote: Mission146

My question is, a point having been established, is it to the Don't Players advantage, in this and all occasions, to actually abstain from laying the odds at a 0% HE?
In the event that the Don't Player does not Lay the Odds on this play he has a long term expected gain of $1.00 per $5.00, but if he were to lay 1000x odds, he has a long term expected gain of $1.00 per $5,005.00.

It seems to me that by Laying the Odds (an event that does not occur until after a point is established) the Right Way Bettor greatly fractionalizes what would normally be a tremendous effective HE but the Wrong Way Bettor destroys his effective edge.

Now calculate the expected value and variance for both bets.

Use the formula EV / SD

and see which one is closest to 0

That will show the answer.
For many bets, say 200, just multiply the EV by the # of bets
and the standard deviation by the square root of the # of bets

Use the formula EV / SD again
see what you get

Compare answers later