dwm
dwm
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June 23rd, 2012 at 10:38:41 AM permalink
I believe the ole 3 point mollie has one thing correct, that is 3 bets max exposure per roll. One bet is not enough action, two is questionable, four is too many for an average hand, but THREE is about right.

Last night had a good $400 win with this simple scheme: $5 pass with $10 odds and place the 6 and 8 at $12 so 3 bets. If 6 or 8 is the point, then add the 5 or 9 at $10 to make 3 bets total. Collect 3 hits(get your bets paid for), then on the next hit do a full press as each is hit. Used a $600 bankroll. Enough action to keep the game interesting, but not too many to make the game more difficult to win.
guido111
guido111
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June 23rd, 2012 at 11:26:10 AM permalink
Quote: dwm

I believe the ole 3 point mollie has one thing correct, that is 3 bets max exposure per roll. One bet is not enough action, two is questionable, four is too many for an average hand, but THREE is about right.

That can not be correct.
You only make a come bet 2/3 of the time after a point is established for the pass line.
From my simulations, with a pass line bet always, the average # of total bets per roll with a max come bet is:

max CB avg per roll # of bets
1 1.790654828
2 2.385
3 2.814190757
4 3.091239204
5 3.235426297
6 3.375757576

So, to have an average of 3 bets in action (1 pass and 2 come bets) one needs to make a max of 4 come bets.

The KEY is having the proper bankroll to limit the Risk of Ruin to less than 1 session out of 100.
7Craps has some threads on that. I will have to find the links.

Making 4 line bets total with odds ( pass or don't) BEATS outright making a pass/odds and the 2 place6 & place8 bets.

simulation results do not lie.
It is because a come/dcome bet with odds has a way lower HE than ANY place6 & place8 bet can ever have.
Place bettors accept the highest shortchange payouts.

They lose more that way

Enjoy!
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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June 23rd, 2012 at 11:28:42 AM permalink
I never could get into craps. Seemed too long to wait till it was my turn to handle the dice.
Screw betting on some other jerk !
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 23rd, 2012 at 11:36:54 AM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Screw betting on some other jerk !

You ain't betting on some other jerk, you are betting on the dice.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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June 23rd, 2012 at 11:40:00 AM permalink
No. The other jerk is throwing them !
guido111
guido111
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June 23rd, 2012 at 11:46:35 AM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I never could get into craps.
Seemed too long to wait till it was my turn to handle the dice.

I always (99%) can find myself the only shooter at the table for an hour. Best hours to play solo between 2 and 5am during the week.
Graveyard shift loves you for it!
dwm
dwm
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June 24th, 2012 at 10:58:53 AM permalink
Guido: I do have to admit per my results after a thousand casino sessions(maybe more) that come-odds are better than place bets, so no surprise here per the math of the game. So why do so few make come bets?, they are a pain but worth it.

Expanding out on hit come bets is my favorite come-odds scheme, meaning starting with pass-odds and one come-odds bet, wait for a hit then go to 2 come-odds bets, wait for another hit then go to 3 come bets, etc. This limits the $ exposure per shooter. Another couple of points that have found helps is: should make decent sized 5x odds bets, and a big bankroll of 20x max $ exposure per shooter as volatile most sessions, AND the luck to get some hits as we know..
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