Eli5: Why split 77 against 8 in SD/DD?

Can someone explain this in an intuitive way. Because intuition and experience of mine ends up with 2 x 17s against dealer 18 most of the time. Especially when TC is high.

Quote: VladPutin

Can someone explain this in an intuitive way. Because intuition and experience of mine ends up with 2 x 17s against dealer 18 most of the time. Especially when TC is high.
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Because two cards that make 21 for you upon hitting have been removed from the deck.

Quote: VladPutin

Can someone explain this in an intuitive way. Because intuition and experience of mine ends up with 2 x 17s against dealer 18 most of the time. Especially when TC is high.
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Most of the time??? You really believe that MOST OF THE TIME if you split two 7’s you will get 17 on BOTH, AND the dealer will hit an 8 to get 18??? Ignoring the count, you get a 10 on the first 7 4/13 of the time, on the second 7 4/13 of the time. The dealer gets a 10 for 18 the same 4/13 of the time. All three happening is 4/13 x 4/13 x 4/13. That’s about 3 out of ONE HUNDRED times. Of course there are other ways for you to get to exactly 17, or the dealer exactly 18, but NO WHERE near will this happen MOST of the time!

Quote: VladPutin

Can someone explain this in an intuitive way. Because intuition and experience of mine ends up with 2 x 17s against dealer 18 most of the time. Especially when TC is high.
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VladPutin,

For a 2D game with 77 vs. 8, the Wiz shows the Hit EV as -0.389533 and the Split EV (assuming DAS*) as -0.387476. Since the Split EV is higher (in this case, less negative), BS is to Split.

These numbers come from here:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/9/2ds17r4/

I linked to the S17 numbers, but naturally the H17 numbers are identical.

*Note that if DAS is NOT allowed, the Split EV falls to -0.426937, so Hit becomes the BS play.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

The intuitive way to put it 6 deck vs DD SD:
the fact that it is SD DD doesn't improve splitting odds, but hitting odds are worse because two cards that give you 21 (7) are gone. Making splitting very slightly the better play.

All good answers.

Here's another way to look at it: Hitting 77 vs. 8 will likely lose 100%.

But with splitting, if you win one hand and lose one hand and win the other, you lose nothing, you've broken even.

Yeah, you won't *usually* win one hand and lose the other, but it'll happen often enough to make split the better play.

Another thing is, splitting 7s gives you the chance to draw a 3 or a 4, giving you an advantageous double-down opportunity. Can't get that by hitting the 77.

And about this:

Quote: DogHand

For a 2D game with 77 vs. 8, the Wiz shows the Hit EV as -0.389533 and the Split EV (assuming DAS*) as -0.387476.
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Note how close the numbers are! On a $25 bet, making the "wrong" play costs you only 5¢.