D Day in Vegas
Quote: monet0412Your playing straight up not doing any monkey business. 900 hours still isn't much when I think about it. If your playing 40 hours a week which isn't very aggressive to me for someone playing straight... that's 23 weeks... not even 6 months of play. You might get more than 10k of coin in per hour but let's say for easy math your getting 10k of coin in for a total of 9 million in action... so at 1% your expecting 90k... your over 40k. So your making around 100.4% return. That doesn't seem that horrible. It certainly could be worse and it could be better. You really don't have enough time in. I average 2 to 3 million a month in coin right now. At your age I was putting in 900 hours in 10 weeks so 4500 hours in a year... now I put in less hours but more coin but the return is really about coin in and not time although they do go hand in hand. I really think you don't have enough coin and time in. I also think when you have 10000 hours in... your numbers will break closer to your expected return. At 900 hours I don't think your doing that bad. I think about all the kickbacks you are or have missed out on which could easily pad a lot of your loss.
The difference is that you cant just sit at a blackjack table for hours on end spreading away like you can with AP machine play and log tons of hours. Every pit boss and surveillance knows the deal with this counting BS, you cant just sit there at same table and same casino or backcount hours on end or youll be 86'd or backed off in no time. Blackjack you have to always be on the.move or traveling which kills.the ability to log more hours. When i say 1000 hours, thatd the hours i actually played, ive logged probably 2000 hours total with all the driving and walking ive done since the beginning.
And by the way im not over 40k, im at $34,200. I also had another log when i used to red chip it low stakes where i put in about 100 hours and made 2k. So if you count that other log im actually over 1000 hours and only 36k to show for it. Of course i got a lot less action in the red chip days, but still im heavily disappointed man. Hopefully i find some other AP play down the road with less variance and higher rate of return or maybe just quit the AP life because this counting grind is eating away at me. The counting grind is bad enough, but if youre underperforming as well, its a disaster
Quote: ZenKinG-7315 / 82 hours.
Im just lost for words, really am. Frustrated isnt the word. Im sick of putting so much work into somethind and never getting results. The amount of bull$hit ive seen on a comsistent basis over these past 1000 hours is starting to make me go insane. Im just convinced theres not anotber counter as cursed as me. Go ask anyone what theyve made after 1000 hours and i bet theyre all at EV or very close to it. Meanwhile im at half my EV, if that. Im absolutely gutted.
Right when you think things are turning around, i play two shoes that end up with a TC of 10+ on each of them when the cut card comes out, and have the dealer pull 6 card 20s and 21s at a monster count against my 19s and 20s and lose both shoes. It doesnt even matter anymore if i have two pat 20s against a 4,5, or 6 with max bets out or a doubled down 19, 20, or 21, i wont win them, it will just be a dealer 20 or 21. You would think luck would start cancelling out after this many hours but no, i just keep getting tortured. Im just convinced no other counter has been this unlucky. I just wish ppl would watch me play and see for themselves just how cursed i really am. Skill is absolutely irrelvant in my life, no matter what the fuk i do, im always the 1 in 100 guy, the 1 % sucker. What the hell is even the point anymore?
How frequently do TC +10's show up in your counting system? If it's similar to HiLo, which I think it is, that's going to be extremely unlikely, not to mention seeing two shoes like that. Possible, absolutely. Likely -- probably not.
I'd be careful about flipping the count, especially after playing for long hours. It's not hard to go from a -6 RC, have a wonky round, flip it to +6 instead of -6, try to add up all the cards quickly because the dealer had a T-A blackjack, then end up with a +18 RC, when it really should be like +2 RC. Then the real RC climbs up to +10 and your mistaken RC is +26.
I don't really want to bet on it, but I highly doubt you're playing 100% perfectly, or even as well as you think you are.
Quote: RSQuote: ZenKinG-7315 / 82 hours.
Im just lost for words, really am. Frustrated isnt the word. Im sick of putting so much work into somethind and never getting results. The amount of bull$hit ive seen on a comsistent basis over these past 1000 hours is starting to make me go insane. Im just convinced theres not anotber counter as cursed as me. Go ask anyone what theyve made after 1000 hours and i bet theyre all at EV or very close to it. Meanwhile im at half my EV, if that. Im absolutely gutted.
Right when you think things are turning around, i play two shoes that end up with a TC of 10+ on each of them when the cut card comes out, and have the dealer pull 6 card 20s and 21s at a monster count against my 19s and 20s and lose both shoes. It doesnt even matter anymore if i have two pat 20s against a 4,5, or 6 with max bets out or a doubled down 19, 20, or 21, i wont win them, it will just be a dealer 20 or 21. You would think luck would start cancelling out after this many hours but no, i just keep getting tortured. Im just convinced no other counter has been this unlucky. I just wish ppl would watch me play and see for themselves just how cursed i really am. Skill is absolutely irrelvant in my life, no matter what the fuk i do, im always the 1 in 100 guy, the 1 % sucker. What the hell is even the point anymore?
How frequently do TC +10's show up in your counting system? If it's similar to HiLo, which I think it is, that's going to be extremely unlikely, not to mention seeing two shoes like that. Possible, absolutely. Likely -- probably not.
I'd be careful about flipping the count, especially after playing for long hours. It's not hard to go from a -6 RC, have a wonky round, flip it to +6 instead of -6, try to add up all the cards quickly because the dealer had a T-A blackjack, then end up with a +18 RC, when it really should be like +2 RC. Then the real RC climbs up to +10 and your mistaken RC is +26.
I don't really want to bet on it, but I highly doubt you're playing 100% perfectly, or even as well as you think you are.
Sorry but youre reaching. Im not some novice where i would let such a huge mistake happen and flip a minus count to a positive count. Besides i wong out aggressively and never play -1 true counts or worse.These high true counts havent happened often maybe 4-5 times total so far since i been here. Happened twice today both at the end of the shoe, one at each different store but it was in a span of 3 total shoes and 2 of those 3 ended with a high true just as the cut card came out. One of the shoes was cut off around 1.5 of a 6 deck and the other had a terrible cut at 2.2, only played that shoe because i didnt see the dealer place the cut card as i got there at the first round of play and backcounted my way in.
Hate to bring it up again, but more proof these casinos are stacking the deck. The good thing is one of the high true count shoes happened at one store where im 100% certain all the cards are there and im sure you all know which one im referring to by now.
You write down what the value is, if you are right, we go to the next deck. Would you wager you can get ten decks in a row right?
I'll bring out discarded casino decks, in order, you examine them, we shuffle them and someone pulls one card from the deck.
It doesn't even have to be for money. Just prove you are the counter you claim to be.
Quote: billryanSo ,if I bring ten decks of cards to the dinner, let you hold the cards, examine them, even shuffle them, then I remove one, you'll be able to give me the value of the card I remove when I deal them out at a pace of 45 seconds.
You write down what the value is, if you are right, we go to the next deck. Would you wager you can get ten decks in a row right?
I'll bring out discarded casino decks, in order, you examine them, we shuffle them and someone pulls one card from the deck.
It doesn't even have to be for money. Just prove you are the counter you claim to be.
If you guys do this I would like some action that ZK is not able to get 10/10 correct.
Quote: RSWould be better to deal a 6 deck shoe to the last few cards or just last 1 card, while actually playing & betting according to his strategy. Anyone can count a deck or play basic strategy + indices or betting amounts.....it's a bit tougher when you're doing all three. Not to mention everything else (the environment).
I wasn't expecting you all to sit around like Churchmice while he does this.
I doubt many BJ players can do this. I'm sure all the great ones can. I'm curious to see if ZK can. He talks the talk, let's see him walk the walk.
How can you count down a deck when cards are missing?
Quote: BozYou guys are going about this all wrong. It doesn't matter if he can count the decks down perfectly, he is playing a game where all 52 cards per deck are not in play. The scam where the Chinese, the Pit Bosses, CEO's of Fortune 500 companies, Gaming, Pit Bosses, Dealers and possibly Prisoners are involved in a grand scheme to default players at certain strip casinos.
How can you count down a deck when cards are missing?
We shall remove all the tens through aces then!
If you take away all the conspiracy crap I have a feeling the guy is better at counting than the average counter. I don't think I would bet against his mechanical skill.
He seems a bit more emotional than the average guy, perhaps that's because he uses this forum as an outlet and a way to vent, so it seems worst than it is(I hope it's not the opposite)? I'm not sure how all the emotional crap will affect his AP career.
Add in the paranoia of someone who thinks the casinos are cheating them with questions of discipline and all the signs of long term failure are there for someone acting this way.
Credit for proving people wrong doesn't pay the bills. Unless of course you bet on it along the way.
The only way the test would work is if it ended on 0, +0.5, or -1.5, where i then can say the card youre holding is an 8, 9, or a 5, respectively, because those cards have the most distinct EOR (Effect of removal) percentages for precised accuracy and are given distinct values; and not just +1 or -1 but rather 0, -0.5, and +1.5, respectively. Or if you want it within two integers, the test could work with it ending on -0.5 where the remaining card would then be a 2 or a 7 as those integers are valued at +0.5
Quote: AxelWolfZK might sound a bit crazy sometimes(Hell, if he didn't no one would even be reading this thread), but so far, with the exception of "the casinos are cheating me", everything he's said checks out. And to his credit, he could have raped us by betting on himself and proving he was who he claimed to be and that he would make his way to Vegas to AP and whatnot. Correct me if I'm wrong, he didn't come back here to brag or rub it in all the naysayer's faces. At the beginning, I know I thought he was full of it just leading us on and trolling.
If you take away all the conspiracy crap I have a feeling the guy is better at counting than the average counter. I don't think I would bet against his mechanical skill.
He seems a bit more emotional than the average guy, perhaps that's because he uses this forum as an outlet and a way to vent, so it seems worst than it is(I hope it's not the opposite)? I'm not sure how all the emotional crap will affect his AP career.
On that note I did ask a pit boss at the Flamingo, and the decks do come pre-shuffled.
I still think it's a fair game, but that tidbit is correct.
Quote: ZenKinGI just wish ppl would watch me play and see for themselves just how cursed i really am.
I would be willing to do this if you're willing to put action on it
Quote: ZenKinGYou guys can throw whatever test you want at me and at whatever speed. The problem is, the test is flawed and shows you guys dont even know what counting is really about. Youre not tracking individual cards like the rainman, but rather youre comparing 'small cards to big cards'. If after the 10 decks are played and the count is -1 after the last card is dealt, the card youre holding using my count can be anywhere from a 3,4, or 6. If it ends on +1 using my count, the card youre holding is anywhere from a Jack, Queen, King or Ace. If i was using HiLo, it could be anywhere from 2,3,4,5,6 if it ended on -1 and the same if it ended in +1 -- Jack, Queen, King or Ace since my count and Hi Lo value the tens and aces the same way.
The only way the test would work is if it ended on 0, +0.5, or -1.5, where i then can say the card youre holding is an 8, 9, or a 5, respectively, because those cards have the most distinct EOR (Effect of removal) percentages for precised accuracy and are given distinct values; and not just +1 or -1 but rather 0, -0.5, and +1.5, respectively. Or if you want it within two integers, the test could work with it ending on -0.5 where the remaining card would then be a 2 or a 7 as those integers are valued at +0.5
Thank you for that lesson. You can tell if the last card is positive, negative or neutral. That's easy enough for you, no? You should be able to do it in your sleep. When I was learning, I'd count license plates.
Quote: TomGI would be willing to do this if you're willing to put action on it [/q
$ 500 on the not being cursed side.The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
It will be a low turnout this time due to the holiday, it looks like a lot of people are out of town or have family in town( or they just hate you (-; ).Quote: ZenKinGSo how many are actually making it tonight?
As of now, we have a solid 6 people, possibly 8.
Prepare for your Day of Judgment.
No pressure.
Quote: MrVYou'll be the center of attention ZK, with all eyes on you looking for flaws.
Prepare for your Day of Judgment.
No pressure.
This is all he's wanted. The video games and card counting are just the means to get it.
(-;Quote: MrVYou'll be the center of attention ZK, with Romes eyes on you, looking for your balls.
No pressure.
It won't happen like that, I can almost guarantee you that.
It's easy to give a guy or girl a hard time safely from behind your computer screen(You know a little about that eh, but don't we all?)
I have a feeling once the others meet him they will like him just fine.
I think any test or whatever they give him, they should also be subjected to as well. You can always find something someone could be doing better when counting. Are those flaws enough to really affect you that much and cause failure is the real question.
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Guys like Romes don't have the same amount pressure as ZK does. Romes has a good job and plays with partners.
I bet if you got the full truth from many of the guys who talk about their success in card counting and AP you would find they had a hidden safety net they haven't disclosed. Started with a significant amount of money,
had a sugar mommy/daddy, rich parents, inheritance, living at home with mom and dad etc.
ZK has fear of failure(that alone will FK with your head) and he's starting off with a fair amount of money to lose. I had nothing to lose when I started other than the safety of a crappy low paying job. I could have easily had another even better job if it came to that.
I have to give him props.
IMO he should have approached the in a much different way and kept all that BS to himself, but that's who he is and he seems to bee ok with that.
Quote: AxelWolfLet me fix that for you.
(-;
It won't happen like that, I can almost guarantee you that.
It's easy to give a guy or girl a hard time safely from behind your computer screen(You know a little about that eh, but don't we all?)
I have a feeling once the others meet him they will like him just fine.
I think any test or whatever they give him, they should also be subjected to as well. You can always find something someone could be doing better when counting. Are those flaws enough to really affect you that much and cause failure is the real question.
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Guys like Romes don't have the same amount pressure as ZK does. Romes has a good job and plays with partners.
I bet if you got the full truth from many of the guys who talk about their success in card counting and AP you would find they had a hidden safety net they haven't disclosed. Started with a significant amount of money,
had a sugar mommy/daddy, rich parents, inheritance, living at home with mom and dad etc.
ZK has fear of failure(that alone will FK with your head) and he's starting off with a fair amount of money to lose. I had nothing to lose when I started other than the safety of a crappy low paying job. I could have easily had another even better job if it came to that.
I have to give him props.
IMO he should have approached the in a much different way and kept all that BS to himself, but that's who he is and he seems to bee ok with that.
No, he doesn't understand the variance of the game and that it IS possible to lose for months on end.
I think he understands the variance of the game, but he just can't accept it with grace.Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: AxelWolfLet me fix that for you.
(-;
It won't happen like that, I can almost guarantee you that.
It's easy to give a guy or girl a hard time safely from behind your computer screen(You know a little about that eh, but don't we all?)
I have a feeling once the others meet him they will like him just fine.
I think any test or whatever they give him, they should also be subjected to as well. You can always find something someone could be doing better when counting. Are those flaws enough to really affect you that much and cause failure is the real question.
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Guys like Romes don't have the same amount pressure as ZK does. Romes has a good job and plays with partners.
I bet if you got the full truth from many of the guys who talk about their success in card counting and AP you would find they had a hidden safety net they haven't disclosed. Started with a significant amount of money,
had a sugar mommy/daddy, rich parents, inheritance, living at home with mom and dad etc.
ZK has fear of failure(that alone will FK with your head) and he's starting off with a fair amount of money to lose. I had nothing to lose when I started other than the safety of a crappy low paying job. I could have easily had another even better job if it came to that.
I have to give him props.
IMO he should have approached the in a much different way and kept all that BS to himself, but that's who he is and he seems to bee ok with that.
No, he doesn't understand the variance of the game and that it IS possible to lose for months on end.
I have no doubt he has a bunch of broken video game controllers.
Quote: AxelWolf...I have no doubt he has a bunch of broken video game controllers.
I've been through a bunch of smartphones. 😎
Im absolutely demoralized now. This is getting ridiculous. There has to be aboug a 3% chance to be down this much. Completely distraught.
Quote: billryanWhose name is the reservation in?
Text this to me too. Or however I find you guys
3% !!!!! Noooooo. I can't be arsed to do the maths, ( You should ) but even if you are as good a counter as you think you are, with the nice advantage that you think you have, I'd wave my wet finger in the air and suggest that there was about a 30% chance that you would find yourself this far into the red. Nothing unusual about your loss. Nothing at all.Quote: ZenKinG-9100 / 85.5 hours.
Im absolutely demoralized now. This is getting ridiculous. There has to be aboug a 3% chance to be down this much. Completely distraught.
Quote: RSPlayed some VP the other day. Ran absolutely awfully. Actually, it's probably the worst I've ever run (from memory). Did the math and it was a 0.003% (1 in 30,000) chance of occurring, if my math is accurate.
But youre not at 1/2 of your ev after over 900 hours, are you and thats being conservative, im probably at 1/3. Save the reply and just realize im cursed or getting cheated badly by this mob ridden city. And guess what the depressing thing is, theres nothing i can do to prove it. Gaming is useless, casino doesnt show shit, im just lost for words at the moment. Im playing as flawless as possible and the results never come, its absolutely frustraing with continued rent expenses and miscellaneous bullshit on top of it. I even loqered my bet size by about 20% and still getting pounded, its unreal. My bankroll is completely vaporizing. Add im the fact for this losing streak to coincide exactly when i get here is gut wrenching.
Quote: OnceDear3% !!!!! Noooooo. I can't be arsed to do the maths, ( You should ) but even if you are as good a counter as you think you are, with the nice advantage that you think you have, I'd wave my wet finger in the air and suggest that there was about a 30% chance that you would find yourself this far into the red. Nothing unusual about your loss. Nothing at all.
Its really not even about the current losing streak other than being heavily paranoid because i just got here and thats when the losing began. Im looking at the overall picture and looking at my pathetic results over the past 900 hours. About +32.5k profit when i easily have over 65k of EV. Sickening. Thats probably also under 5% and probably worse than -2 SD. I mean when is this bullshit gonna turn around? Its truly amazing. I see so many other counters who play much less than me and do amazing, i just dont get it anymore. Skill is absolutely irrelevant to me, i can have a 20% advantage and i would never hit EV. Ive literally got maybe 2 or 3 doubled 21s with a max bet since i been here over 85.5 hours and thats not selective memory. Every double i do with a max bet i get a low card and dealer flips to a 5 card 20 or 21. All ive seen are 5 card 20s and 21s, dealer backdoor blackjacks and me getting stiff after stiff and busting while the dealer constantly pulls magical cards. If i do get two good hands with a max bet against a dealer stiff he will just turn it to 21.
After 1000 hours you would think this shit would end. What really irks me is the fact that when i play on Casino Verite i dominate, but as soon as i go the casino i get raped. Its like God just loves to troll me and takes the piss with me even more or something. I truly am cursed. I might as well go play the big 6 wheel. Hard work and skill pays off for everyone else, but for me its completely irrelevant
Quote: ZenKinGAbout +32.5k profit.
I realize $35k is below expectation but think of it this way. You are still making $36 an hour which is a lot more than an average American makes and you get to do it on your own schedule.
Quote: RSPlayed some VP the other day. Ran absolutely awfully. Actually, it's probably the worst I've ever run (from memory). Did the math and it was a 0.003% (1 in 30,000) chance of occurring, if my math is accurate.
You beat my record?
Quote: RSPlayed some VP the other day. Ran absolutely awfully. Actually, it's probably the worst I've ever run (from memory). Did the math and it was a 0.003% (1 in 30,000) chance of occurring, if my math is accurate.
On the cursed scale of 1 to ZenKing that's about a 9.
Tell him to RIPQuote: monet0412I typed out a massive amount of advice but realized it wasn't worth posting. ZK isn't going to do what I suggest and ZK is gonna do what he thinks is best. I just have to face the fact that he is cursed and getting cheated and the law is against him as well. How can you help a player with this much adversity?
Quote: monet0412I typed out a massive amount of advice but realized it wasn't worth posting. ZK isn't going to do what I suggest and ZK is gonna do what he thinks is best. I just have to face the fact that he is cursed and getting cheated and the law is against him as well. How can you help a player with this much adversity?
Fwiw, these discussions are very valuable to others not yet reading, and some reading but not commenting. It's not all about ZK, it's a larger audience, who are very interested in what you have to say. So, even if ZK has turned a deaf ear, others are listening and learning.
Quote: beachbumbabsFwiw, these discussions are very valuable to others not yet reading, and some reading but not commenting. It's not all about ZK, it's a larger audience, who are very interested in what you have to say. So, even if ZK has turned a deaf ear, others are listening and learning.
You left out laughing.
It really makes no sense to BELIEVE you are cursed and then try to make your living gambling.
Either accept the logic and mathematics of the game, and accept that there are no such things as curses, or go play recreationally like 99% of gamblers who play by hunches, losing systems, and lucky feelings.
You can't have it both ways. Either you trust the math or you don't. You can't pretend to be a professional gambler and then whine about luck like the tourists. Because if you do that, you're just a tourist and you might as well enjoy yourself, because you can't beat any game if you believe in magic or curses.
Don't encourage him (-;Quote: beachbumbabsFwiw, these discussions are very valuable to others not yet reading, and some reading but not commenting. It's not all about ZK, it's a larger audience, who are very interested in what you have to say. So, even if ZK has turned a deaf ear, others are listening and learning.
Quote: ZenKinG-9100 / 85.5 hours.
Then he posted:
Quote: ZenKinGIm looking at the overall picture and looking at my pathetic results over the past 900 hours. About +32.5k profit when i easily have over 65k of EV.
*scratches head*
So is he down $9,100 or up $32,500?
How to reconcile the two claims?
Quote: MrVZK posted:
Then he posted:
*scratches head*
So is he down $9,100 or up $32,500?
How to reconcile the two claims?
Overall he's up $32,500 but down $9,100 in Vegas.
Thanks.
I hear these kinds of rants (game is rigged, luck is against me, look how far down I am below Theo) from 10-yr, 20-yr veteran pros all the time.
In many cases, the rants are preventing a good analysis of the "leaks" in people's strategies (as it is for ZenKing).
>>> The latest "casino must have tightened machine X" story I heard was 2-3 weeks ago. <<<
The percentage of "level-headed", "not-so-emotional" types is relatively low.
And even those people do start asking questions when in unusual downswings (e.g. once every few years).
e.g. I'm X below Theo on Y plays with Z coin-in. I think my edge is A. Did the casinos tighten up any of these machines? Are there problems with my math? Have you had downswings this bad before? .... or worse ...are team members cheating?
It's just part of gambling.
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P.S. I was about -75K below Theo earlier this year. It's gotten better recently, ...maybe only -40K to -50K below Theo.
On four types of games, I am on losing streaks of 5 months, 11 months, and two of 1 yr - 1 yr 6 months.
What keeps me grounded about these games is experience.
It doesn't make me think conspiracy theories, but it did cause me to be temporarily more conservative in my strategies.
...and I made some long-term adjustments in strategies.
Sometimes you may want to increase variance.
Other times, you may prefer to decrease variance.
Figuring out what combination of these is comfortable is part dealing with the whole "RoR"/N0/Kelly-betting area.
It's a lot more complicated than an arm-chair gambler reading books might think (when dealing with "real-world" "may go broke").
---
Advice to ZenKing:
You are seeing 1st hand why most pros do NOT bet Full Kelly.
Full Kelly has massive swings. You have 50% chance of losing half your money. (That's 50%!)
Quarter-kelly ... even with teams to decrease individual variance.
The swings on a game where you have only a 1-1.5% edge are pretty bad.
Now you went way too far. (-;Quote: mamatZenKing is very normal IMO.
Quote: sodawaterEither accept the logic and mathematics of the game, and accept that there are no such things as curses, or go play recreationally like 99% of gamblers who play by hunches, losing systems, and lucky feelings.
It's rare that this sort of blind acceptance is the best choice. As one of the smartest people here, ZK's claim of a curse holds credibility (coming from a less knowledgeable source it might not). He can come up with a way to test his curse theory. And based on the results of the test, we would then have strong evidence to either support or discredit the curse. Depending on the methods and odds I would be willing to bet either side
For only a measly $1000 I will remove his cure for him. A small price to pay for any AP.
I may make a few other exceptions, but you must hurry, this offer won't last long.
I think he undstands his situation and is using the forum as an outlet to vent
