Romes
Romes
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LostWages
March 13th, 2017 at 7:04:37 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

...Given my limited choices, what do you suggest?

Well a lot of this is going to depend on heat. I've had casinos where their 6D S17 $50 min shoe games are watched like HAWKS while just down the pit there are some $15 H17 8D games that they could give two sh*ts about and you can BLAST away at those games all day. In that case, the 8D game is a wayyyyy better game to play. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I consider HEAT to be the #1 playing condition / rule to be aware of. If you can find a game with zero heat, even with bad rules it can be a gold mine. I look at heat, then penetration, then the table rules themselves. In the same scenario above with 6D S17 $50 min and 50% penetration... then 8D H17 $15 min with 90% penetration, the 8D game will yield you more per hour guaranteed, without even considering the heat the better rule game will bring.

It also depends on your bankroll and spread. Can you bankroll handle a $50 min game and spreading $50-$450 or so? If not, then well this game isn't an option anyways. Say you can handle a big bet of $300... Well, with the spreadsheets or whatever ways you're calculating your EV, you should be able to plug in your spread ($50-$300 even) and then $15-$250 or so and take a look at your hourly EV's for each game at that point. This way you're within your bankroll tolerance and you can see just what each game will make you hourly (without heat) and move forward with a decision from there.

So in order to make a good suggestion, I'd need to know:
1) The level of heat on both games
2) The penetration on both games
3) Your max bet for your Bankroll
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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March 15th, 2017 at 11:30:08 AM permalink
Quote: Romes



So in order to make a good suggestion, I'd need to know:
1) The level of heat on both games
2) The penetration on both games
3) Your max bet for your Bankroll



Sorry for the late reply Romes. I'll do my best to answer the questions.

1) Heat Below.

(3) games ($15 min 8-deck, $25 min 8-deck, $50 min 6-deck)

$15 min seems to have the most heat, but mostly if you hit the $100 bet or you come just under at $90. I hear them call checks play around that time and see the pit coming over, watching the table and scribbling notes. Since most, if not all of them, know me by name they also know the tendencies of my game. So, if I deviate and increase to say $150 on this table on TC4 or TC5 they seem to take notice. But, I've never been backed off or pulled aside in this place.

$25 tends to call checks play at the $150 mark but I don't see a lot of heat.

$50 I've never seen any heat. Or, none that I know of. I don't hear any calls nor do I see anyone watching me or writing notes.

2) Penetration varies. They swap dealers in the following rotations (20 min shift to another table or 20 min move to break and return to table). Therefore, it's hard to find a good advantage unless I specifically know the dealer and I tip well. When I do that I can usually just say something like, "I really hope this is a long shoe... I hate shuffles" and then the dealer seems to take the queue and cut deeper. Avg is 75% - 90%. I only see 90% on novice dealers or dealers that I know well. But, both games are 75% to 80%.

3. My session bank roll is 100x of min table so $1,500 or $2,500. I'm not actively playing $50 anymore until I improve. I bet up to 10x on each table as a max bet (so $150 or $250).

I hope the info helps.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
Romes
Romes
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LostWages
March 16th, 2017 at 7:12:58 AM permalink
Joel,

The info does help a bit, but you're still leaving out some key information. Your session bankroll can be $2500, but if your max bet is $1k, then you're only taking 2.5 max bets to your session... If your max bet is even $500, I'd say you're not taking nearly enough money to your sessions that you need to. So actually defining your max bet is very important.

If your max bet is $200, given the heat and "average" PEN all around described above, then you should stick to the $25 games.

If your max bet is $150 then your only choice is really the $15 game.

If your max bet is $300 or more, and you actually have the bankroll to keep a low RoR, then you should play the $50 min game (mostly)... though I'll still caution while it may seem like little heat the higher the min "usually" the more the game is watched. I've found places where this wasn't the case, but they're definitely the exception to the rule. Perhaps the leverage surveillance more at those tables and let the PB's handle the lower min tables.

If you have the BR and Max Bet to play any game, you could play a mix of the $25 and $50 games pending your favorite dealers, how empty the tables are (so you can get more hands per hour), etc, etc. Your BR and Max Bet simply let you know what your hard restrictions are for choosing a game. After that, a good counter will hunt for the better options within their realm of possibilities.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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April 1st, 2017 at 11:07:56 AM permalink
Hi Romes,

I've been doing just that thanks to your advice. I now play $25 tables only with my max bet at $200.

Last night I played really well and ended up clearing $1,400 on a couple of advantageous shoes that encountered a great count and positive variance. I felt comfortable and confident and I played relaxed but focused. I really appreciate the advice and I've been reading quite a bit now. As the casino has opened up a lot more $25 tables recently, I'm able to back count to TC 1 before sitting down.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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April 3rd, 2017 at 9:23:26 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Hi Romes,

I've been doing just that thanks to your advice. I now play $25 tables only with my max bet at $200.

Last night I played really well and ended up clearing $1,400 on a couple of advantageous shoes that encountered a great count and positive variance. I felt comfortable and confident and I played relaxed but focused. I really appreciate the advice and I've been reading quite a bit now. As the casino has opened up a lot more $25 tables recently, I'm able to back count to TC 1 before sitting down.

That's great to hear you've been reading up a bit more and having some nice positive variance. Also sounds like you found your home on the $25 tables for now (which is not at all too terrible a place to be!)... especially if you can back count and always wong in at TC +1 =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
theoriemeister
theoriemeister
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April 9th, 2017 at 10:43:19 AM permalink
Interesting discussion about heat. My local casino's BJ table is $5 - $100, with absolutely NO heat whatsoever, at least as far as I can tell. For instance, last night this guy comes in during the middle of a shoe, plops down $200, and spreads to 2 hands ($100 each). One hand requires a double, so back to the wallet. He loses the double but wins the other. Loses both hands the next deal, more $$ from the wallet. At one point he spreads to 3 hands, $100 each. He also asks the dealer about raising the house limit, but is denied. After about 6-8 minutes the guy is in for a bout $900-1000, but finally catches a few good breaks, wins a few hands, but walks away down $200-300. All in less than 10 minutes. And during the play he's asking the table how to play: "13 v. dealer 7, should I hit that?", "Should I split these 2s against the dealer 4?" Geez, if I'm betting $100 a hand I'd absolutely know how to play!!

Anyway, the casino doesn't really have a pit boss, but rather something akin to a 'floor manager.' The manager is only called over to a table when someone buys in for $100 or more (usually the dealer just calls out 'check one' and the manager replies 'okay'), or when the result of play requires a dealer payout of $100+, or there's a late bet, or the dealer forgets to pay a bet, etc. A lot of times, the floor manager is simply another dealer who's waiting to go on shift. No one EVER takes notes, or watches play. They're usually watching the ball game on the 4-5 TVs in the room or chit chatting with the dealers or some of the regulars. If I suddenly raised my bet from $5 to $75, no one would bat an eye. Perhaps an advantage of smaller-town casino?
Romes
Romes
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April 10th, 2017 at 8:50:22 AM permalink
Quote: theoriemeister

Interesting discussion about heat. My local casino's BJ table is $5 - $100, with absolutely NO heat whatsoever, at least as far as I can tell. For instance, last night this guy comes in during the middle of a shoe, plops down $200, and spreads to 2 hands ($100 each). One hand requires a double, so back to the wallet. He loses the double but wins the other. Loses both hands the next deal, more $$ from the wallet. At one point he spreads to 3 hands, $100 each. He also asks the dealer about raising the house limit, but is denied. After about 6-8 minutes the guy is in for a bout $900-1000, but finally catches a few good breaks, wins a few hands, but walks away down $200-300. All in less than 10 minutes. And during the play he's asking the table how to play: "13 v. dealer 7, should I hit that?", "Should I split these 2s against the dealer 4?" Geez, if I'm betting $100 a hand I'd absolutely know how to play!!

I've actually done this before while getting called in to a hot shoe. Come in, bet large, and play the role of a dummy. The BEST hands to ask for advice on are the hands that are the most obvious, because if I have 10v10 and the TC is +4, I want to double, so I don't want the table to tell me "just hit." So when I get 13 v dealer 10, I'll ask "should I hit this?" because the answer is always going to be "yes" which is also the correct play =).

Quote: theoriemeister

Anyway, the casino doesn't really have a pit boss, but rather something akin to a 'floor manager.' The manager is only called over to a table when someone buys in for $100 or more (usually the dealer just calls out 'check one' and the manager replies 'okay'), or when the result of play requires a dealer payout of $100+, or there's a late bet, or the dealer forgets to pay a bet, etc. A lot of times, the floor manager is simply another dealer who's waiting to go on shift. No one EVER takes notes, or watches play. They're usually watching the ball game on the 4-5 TVs in the room or chit chatting with the dealers or some of the regulars. If I suddenly raised my bet from $5 to $75, no one would bat an eye. Perhaps an advantage of smaller-town casino?

Well, this happens in big and small casinos it just depends on their education level and/or tolerance. Some of the smarter places don't care AT ALL about the low limit tables because they know they can't be beat for much on them, and the majority of counters are under funded anyways and will bust themselves out due to regular variance. Then, at places that have no clue about counting they still don't care about the $5 tables because well, they have no clue. The "no clue" in general (each casino is different) happens at the smaller-town casinos that you mentioned.

You should definitely work up a 1x$5 to 3x$100 spread and bankroll then =D. At a "decent" (.4%) HE game you could make $25-$35/hour. Not too bad for some part time entertainment.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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April 10th, 2017 at 8:54:45 AM permalink
HA!! Counting cards is WORK! :-)

I was once told, "you WORK too hard."
Last edited by: Ibeatyouraces on Apr 10, 2017
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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April 10th, 2017 at 2:02:06 PM permalink
Do you have the link to the articles? I would be interested to take a look at them and learn your abbreviations. I don't play blackjack often but when I do I look for single deck games. I have a very crude system I try and use to count cards (though here in tampa they never get past 60% of the deck) I use three counts

1 "10's" (10-k)
2 Aces
3 2-6 's

I have not really tied counting the 7-8-9 because I never have completely figured out their impact on the game and like I said I do not play much BJ so it has never been enough for me to research. I have played only because a friend wanted to maybe 3 times in the last 3 years.
Romes
Romes
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troopscott
April 10th, 2017 at 2:43:58 PM permalink
Quote: troopscott

Do you have the link to the articles? ...

If you're referring to my 3 A-Z articles they're available in the Articles Section of this site. Here are the links:

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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