LostWages
LostWages 
Joined: May 6, 2013
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March 6th, 2017 at 6:56:15 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I had thought I was doing fairly well but now I'm losing a bit of confidence.


I feel bad when anyone is experiencing what you have been. When I read the article below, it reminded me of your sorrows. HTH,

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/28407-absolutely-sickened/
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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March 8th, 2017 at 10:04:48 AM permalink
I had two smaller winning sessions after deciding to go back. I changed my betting spread and learned 5 more orders from the I18. I felt it helped a lot. I'm waiting on my books to come in so I can read and absorb. I stopped playing prop bets. I relaxed. It helped to relax and realize that variance may or may not be on my side today. When it was, I felt really solid.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
Romes
Romes 
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LostWages
March 8th, 2017 at 10:21:45 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Alright, this makes me feel better. When I'm counting correctly, in general I do feel confident. When I see that I'm to a +29 RC and the TC is at +4 and hear people around the table saying this table sucks, I'm leaving, I just calmly sit there knowing that I'm where I need to be. Sometimes I break even at that point and other times I lose a little.

Wait, you're taking a break when the TC is +4? That's a card counting sin if I'm reading that correctly =).

Quote: JoelDeze

I have only had a couple of big nights where the variance went my way in a large fashion. On one weekend (about 10 months ago) I won $5,500 on Friday and $8,500 on the next day. Of course, the next week I went back thinking I had mastered everything and lost $7,500. So, I learned my lesson then. It was a hard lesson.

The real lesson here is even if/when you HAVE actually mastered the game, you'll STILL win $8k this weekend and lose $8k the next. That's the natural swings of the game that skill cannot overcome... Time and hands (playing correctly) will overcome the variance. Like I tell my ploppy friends that know I count: "On any one single given night I can't tell you whether I'll win or lose... but over 5,000 trips to the casino, I can and will mathematically guarantee I win."

Quote: JoelDeze

I'm going to wait 3 to 4 more weeks, reading and digesting some of the information while I practice my counts. I'll especially pay attention to the betting spreads and the i18. I do have a question on the i18 regarding decks. Does it mainly work on 6-decks or will it work on 8-decks. I play on both.

That sounds like a solid plan to study and practice. One thing I'd suggest... STICK TO ONE COUNT. Pick the one that you make the least amount of mistakes with (so long as it's a 'mainstream' count - no ace/5 or simplified counts). I've been counting for over a decade and I've never needed more than 1 count... for the main blackjack game =).

Quote: JoelDeze

Also, which books do you recommend for reading? I purchased Blackjack Attack and Blackjack Bluebook II.

Beat the Dealer (Ed Thorp), Playing Blackjack Like a Business (Revere), Professional Blackjack (Wong). These 3 books will cost you under $50, provide you hours of fun reading since you like blackjack, and return THOUSANDS of dollars to you from the knowledge you pull out of them.

Lastly, the I18 will work for 6 or 8 D. In general, you can apply the I18 to any number of decks you use, though when you get in to the nooks and cranny's of 1D and 2D the numbers can change ever so slightly. Just learn the I18 for 6D and use that for all number of decks and you'll get the mass majority of the advantage from it. If you want to learn more indexes, instead of learning those small differences, learn more index numbers for 6D. A good counter will know about 25 indexes, a great one 50 or more.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 8th, 2017 at 10:26:49 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Wait, you're taking a break when the TC is +4? That's a card counting sin if I'm reading that correctly =).


He said when others leave.
Romes
Romes 
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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March 8th, 2017 at 10:27:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He said when others leave.

When others leave during a TC +4 that's just a phenomenal excuse to say "Oh man, I want to keep their hands in to keep the flow! I'm gonna play another hand!" lol
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 8th, 2017 at 10:30:04 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

When others leave during a TC +4 that's just a phenomenal excuse to say "Oh man, I want to keep their hands in to keep the flow! I'm gonna play another hand!" lol


When I counted regularly, one of my biggest shoes came as the players left a rising count. Had a nice 7's split to four hands with three doubles. Dealer obliged busting a hard 13. :-)
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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March 8th, 2017 at 1:32:16 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

When others leave during a TC +4 that's just a phenomenal excuse to say "Oh man, I want to keep their hands in to keep the flow! I'm gonna play another hand!" lol



Yeah, I don't leave the table when the TC is +4. I feel bad for others that leave because the variance is not working out for them at that point in time. I can't stand up and say, hey you really shouldn't leave. The count is in your favor. I'm probably a little too sympathetic at times. But, I'm there for the duration.

I do have a question regarding the negative RC count. At what point of PEN into the shoe and at what count should you generally leave the table? For instance, if the shoe is 75 pen 6/8 and we're 3 decks into the shoe, and the RC is -19, would you leave? Is there a general rule of thumb for escaping a nightmarish table?
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
Romes
Romes 
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LostWages
March 10th, 2017 at 7:42:41 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

...I do have a question regarding the negative RC count. At what point of PEN into the shoe and at what count should you generally leave the table?

The penetration doesn't matter because you're accounting for this in your True Count conversion. You should sit out, take a phone call, go to the bathroom, switch tables, get something to eat, or flat out leave when the TC drops below your threshold. Every count has a different one. Some never play negative counts so they do one of those things when the TC < 0. However, most of us that don't live in Vegas or don't have a ton of casinos near by are limited on our casino options. Some people only have 1 casino around within hours. For the rest of us this is just not an option because you'll be sitting out or table hopping, etc, entirely too frequently and draw attention to yourself... and since we only have 1 or maybe 2 casinos near by, we really don't want to get 86'd from them.

Thus, most players with just a couple casinos near them need to "camp out" a little bit more than the Vegas hit and run pros. I generally play down through TC -1. Thus when the TC hits -2 I will do one of those things above to not play. Some players though that only have 1 casino ANYWHERE near them that only has a few tables (thus can't table hop too easily), or perhaps it's crowded and the tables are full, etc, etc, they will play down a bit further through TC -2 and sit out/etc when the TC hits -3.

This all depends on what you want to make hourly. Remember the excel sheet? When you put a NON-ZERO bet in for your bet at TC -2, this is going to generate negative gain per hand (because the house has an edge against you at that point). Thus, this is going to take money away from your hourly EV to play TC -2. So it's a give and take balance that you need to work up your own spreadsheet, figure out what hourly you're comfortable with for the balance of your play as to not get booted/banned from the places around you, etc.

For "generics" I'd recommend sitting out/etc when the TC hits -2. Thus, on the spreadsheet your bet for TC -2 should be 0. A good option, if you can get away with doing it every now and then, is to just simply say something like "I'm gonna take a few hands off" and just sit there and count. If the count dips more then find a reason not to come back in. If the table is winning then "This must be a X player shoe, I'll stay out of your way!" or if the table is losing "This is a dealer shoe, I'll wait for the next one..." Experience will provide you with endless excuses to play when you want to and not to play when you don't want to.

Quote: JoelDeez

For instance, if the shoe is 75 pen 6/8 and we're 3 decks into the shoe, and the RC is -19, would you leave? Is there a general rule of thumb for escaping a nightmarish table?

In this example, there are 3 decks left and the RC is -19... Thus, the TC is (-19 / 3) = -6.3333... Yeah, I would have been sitting out a while ago =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
LostWages
LostWages 
Joined: May 6, 2013
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Romes
March 10th, 2017 at 8:38:33 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

For "generics" I'd recommend sitting out/etc when the TC hits -2. Thus, on the spreadsheet your bet for TC -2 should be 0. A good option, if you can get away with doing it every now and then, is to just simply say something like "I'm gonna take a few hands off" and just sit there and count.

Just wanted to say that for the first time since Oct 2016 (after your recent explanation on how to calculate EV), I could finally read a paragraph like this and understand what's going on!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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March 11th, 2017 at 9:27:56 AM permalink
Quote: Romes


Quote: JoelDeez

For instance, if the shoe is 75 pen 6/8 and we're 3 decks into the shoe, and the RC is -19, would you leave? Is there a general rule of thumb for escaping a nightmarish table?

In this example, there are 3 decks left and the RC is -19... Thus, the TC is (-19 / 3) = -6.3333... Yeah, I would have been sitting out a while ago =).



Thanks again Romes. I've re-read your information and I've now gone through half of my first book, "Blackjack Attack", and I'm starting to see he picture a bit more clearly now.

First, I'm able to calculate EV and SD and see my range now per hour. I'm not upset anymore given that I was still in the 1 SD range on losses (roughly in the 68% range). I also realize that I'm not playing a very advantageous game when I go to the 8-deck shoe (min of $15 to $25). The 6-deck shoe offers a better return but in Twin Rivers case, the tables are $50 and allow no midshoe entry. So, I don't think I can take advantage of any back counting techniques. I've decided that I won't play until TC +1 now, even with my limited casino choices. I can either back count to TC +1 and sit at an 8-deck shoe or min bet at a 6-deck play all shoe and hope that I move to a positive TC as soon as possible. Or, if moves negative I could say I want to sit a few hands out and count like you suggested.

Given my limited choices, what do you suggest?
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein

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