I know you stated you understand, but make sure you understand your casino rules for MP. Some casinos I've been to if you bet $25 + $25 match play and hit a blackjack, they ONLY pay EVEN MONEY on the match play and pay 3/2 on the blackjack. This is certainly -EV. Now, some casinos pay $75 (3/2 on the whole bet) then take the coupon, so it depends from shop to shop. Typically with FP/MP that ONLY pays even money you'll want to put it on something with a lower edge... Because when blackjack pays even money the house edge soars up another 2.27%, quite often bringing the total house edge close to 3%! You'd be far better off betting it on a line bet in craps (1.39% DP or 1.41% Pass) or even Baccarat (1.06% banker or 1.24% player).
Literally played my last FP on the Player in Baccarat =). If one were to get a copy of Beyond Counting JG gives a really good breakdown of all the different types of FP, MP, etc.Quote: houyi
Romes is mostly correct here, but one point that may be worth clarifying is that while banker is the lower house edge play in baccarat under normal circumstances, when using a match play you will actually get greater utility by betting player if given the option. The tie bet is even more profitable, but I've yet to see a casino allowing this. With match plays, you generally want to try to maximize volatility.
Double Up... You should stick to basic strategy (or deviations if you're counting) regardless of using a match play or not. The idea is that basic strategy is the best decision that will return the MOST to the player in the long run. Thus it doesn't matter if you're betting $15, $30, or $15 + $15 match play... The correct decision to double is the correct decision according to basic strategy.
Great link IBYA. Forgot about that beyond coupons post. Admittedly I don't know the coupon deviations, though I rarely if ever play my FP/MP on blackjack.Quote: Ibeatyouraces
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I know you stated you understand, but make sure you understand your casino rules for MP. Some casinos I've been to if you bet $25 + $25 match play and hit a blackjack, they ONLY pay EVEN MONEY on the match play and pay 3/2 on the blackjack. This is certainly -EV.
So let's say you see a TC of +3 in an 'average' .5% HE blackjack game... That would make the play game ~1% in the players edge, IF HE WERE to get paid 3/2 on blackjacks... but with the MP he's not, which adds another 2.27% to the HE and you're still (even at TC +3) up against a ~1.27% HE, where you could get a lower HE on baccarat still and this is after watching the cards on a game that many of players have been known to be backed off or kicked out on. K.I.S.S. you can get the majority bang for your buck plopping it down on the player in Baccarat or a line bet in Craps.Quote: TomG
...Best reason to use coupons at blackjack, especially double deck, is because you get to see cards. If a lot of little ones come out, keep playing. If not, walk away. A couple places I can load up with multiple coupons and it's like they're paying me to count through the decks.