alphastorm
alphastorm
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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January 10th, 2017 at 3:34:45 PM permalink
Is it a requirement to follow a different set of basic strategies if you use his speed count for BJ?
Wino
Wino
Joined: Dec 13, 2014
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January 11th, 2017 at 4:59:58 AM permalink
There is technically only one Basic Strategy for one particular set of Blackjack Rules and Number of decks. On the other hand, some APs will use a "generic basic strategy" for all number of decks as a compromise/practical approach to the task at hand. Feel free to discuss more.
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.” Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?” Wanda: “You hate them?” Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.” Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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January 11th, 2017 at 7:17:35 AM permalink
Quote: alphastorm

Is it a requirement to follow a different set of basic strategies if you use his speed count for BJ?

If you're going to get in to counting, AT ANY LEVEL, I would HIGHLY recommend you look in to another count. Speed Count gets the bare bottom of an edge possible and regardless of what anyone says you have to put 'almost' just as much work in to learning how to use that count (bankroll management, RoR, etc) that you do with any other count. So why not get the full bang for your buck and learn something like Hi/Low? There are several other threads that talk about this, as well as the Wizards Ace-5 count (same story as Speed Count). I'll encourage you to check those out to get the more detailed reasoning, but definitely the end result is: Learn a better count.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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January 11th, 2017 at 9:16:20 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

So why not get the full bang for your buck and learn something like Hi/Low?

Romes, what do you think of KO for beginners (or TKO)? With maybe 4 index plays & insurance?

I think KO/TKO was an easy unbalanced count when I played it almost 20 years ago ("All Sevens" 1992, Ken Fuchs 1998 book). Very easy to use on 1-2-4-6-8 decks, and plenty of index counts if I felt like remembering all the variations.

Thought it was not strong as others for playing indicies or third base single-deck, but reading some threads about PE (Playing Efficiency) & BC (Betting Correlation) today, maybe I'm out of date. How do the single count systems compare these days? (versus...Snyder Zen 1983 or Wong Halves 1970, which I hear a lot).
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/tko-advantage-by-count.23050/
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/why-is-the-playing-efficiency-higher-for-ko-than-hi-lo.7512/

Thanks, Romes for any advice you have.

...or if you can link me to other good discussions on WoV or other forums.

------------

P.S. Great intro article on A-Z Blackjack at WizardofOdds.

(1) My personal preference would be to discuss RoR before even "basic strategy". Elementary RoR will allow people a better chance to win...even when playing a losing game. Especially since you need about 20-60 hrs of play before any "edge" (from basic counting) overcomes variance.

(2) For beginners, there's an interesting set of curves you can compute. Expected lowest loss (90%, 95%, 99%) before eventually profiting when using XYZ strategy (e.g. 1.2% edge, bet spread $25-125, Y game conditions). For a losing game, you can also compute expected highest win before eventually losing to house edge.

For example, spreading $5-25 you might have an (95%) expected -$400 loss on game X with edge 1.2%, before you eventually win.

Or, playing basic strategy at a -.5% loss with 0% errors, betting $5 flat, you might have a possible (95%) +$200 gain on game X, conditions Y,...before you eventually lose. And you might expect to last Y hours before running out of Z bankroll. The fun one for beginners is to show how 1-2 errors/hour drastically affects there results. Once I was chatting with a guy playing blackjack. He came to vegas to throw a wedding for his daughter, because hotels & expenses were so much cheaper. I made a very rare suggestion on his play, and after a few hours he mentioned how his money seemed to be lasting a lot longer... :-)

It's a bit more visceral for beginners, rather than saying you need a 400-600 unit bankroll for X% RoR.

(3) I play a LOT of losing games (-EV). If you can work with RoR...and you get lucky, you can sometimes go hours/days/weeks/months/years on a losing game by managing your bets.

One AP friend had a strategy of blowing $30 for fun at the end of each day. One time he hit $20K with only $18 into one machine. $20K can last a long time at -$30/day. :-)

(4) For an amateur or recreational player, CE (Certainty Equivalent) may include a lot of "having fun". If you make $10-200/hr (pre-tax) at your day job, having fun might have a CE of $8-120/hr (post-tax), and if you win, that's just an extra bonus.

On my last trip to Vegas (3 weeks over Xmas & New Years), I wasn't trying so much to make a profit. Cash-wise lost/spent -$2,400, and had a pretty good time.

(5) Also, for a lot of people on budgets (even very big bankrolls), CE of reduced variance (from using 0.25 Kelly, rather than full Kelly) may mean that maximizing +EV/hr doesn't have the highest CE (for them).
Last edited by: mamat on Jan 11, 2017
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
mamat
January 11th, 2017 at 12:28:20 PM permalink
mamat,

I think KO/TKO is a good system and as RWM said it could perform "as well as" Hi/Low. As you pointed out, there are a ton of counting systems out there... The one that someone makes the least amount of mistakes with, so long as it's one of the 'main' recognized counts, is the right count for them. SC & A-5 aren't really considered AP counts more so something to help basic strategy players pass the time getting closer to a break even game. The allure of these "counts" is not having to do most of the work a real counter does... but in the end even using SC and A-5 you will FAIL if you don't understand these other concepts that they think they can get away from with an easier count. Thus, why I don't believe they work most of time time and if someone were to put that effort in then why only get a .5% avg advantage when you could get 3x that using a better counting system that's just as easy to learn?

While it is definitely good to understand PE, BC, IC... it's definitely not something you should get absolutely hung up on. Hi/Low has a strong BC which means at the end of the day you're getting your money out when it's good to get it out. A lot of the advantage in blackjack is based off of 3/2 blackjack, splits, and doubles. There's not much "playing efficiency" changes in these plays as they are mostly all black and white plays. So to me, while another count might have a "slightly" higher PE, I'd rather stick with Hi/Low. There's a TON of debate on other forums (and I would NOT like to get in to that debate again here) but it is my opnion that the difference in the counting systems is "generally" on the order of loose change per hour... and from my experience (my experience) it takes people much longer to learn these more advanced systems and they tend to make more mistakes than the typical Hi/Low or KO player (AGAIN FROM WHAT I'VE PERSONALLY SEEN). Someone even ran a SIM on another forum comparing like the top 7 counting systems and yes, the advanced ones out performed Hi/Low... but my pennies per hour in the long run. That and well to me Hi/Low is just really easy and takes less time to learn, but to each their own.

I think with newbies there's a tremendous amount of information to take in. Honestly, none of it is "really hard" to understand... the difficult part in counting (as I said in my articles) is taking all of these simple concepts and joining them all together. I think to compound that effort we should keep each of the 'simple' concepts... well simple. That's why I usually explain what RoR is, then give a way to calculate it (if they want to), then simply tell them play with X units for Y% RoR. To me that simplicity accounts for a lot when you factor in someone learning these topics for the first time and attempting to understand each individual one and put them all together. I'd rather not get in to the "curves" as you mentioned and give them tons of numbers to think about. For most things in life I subscribe to the KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) methodology. They've got enough to think about, and yes, one day they will get to that point in the road where they need to understand more numbers like that... but in my opinion, not at the beginning.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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