Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 23
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:49:18 AM permalink
Quote: ILOVEBJS

So I went to the casino today and played Black jack. I played basic strategy exactly properly on 8 decks at the Seminole
Casino in Florida. Bj pays 1.5 to 1. No surrender. Double after split. Ok so I lost $300 playing $10-15 a hand. I also
Count cards and I am very good at it. When the count was
Positive like +6 running count or higher increased my bet to 15-20. Played table min as long as count was no worse then -7, since the count can cart drastically round to
Round. I don't like to make it look obvious that I'm counting and jump in and out of games so I play table min usually to deck gets hot true count of +3 or more. But for some reason I lost almost every hand just playing table min following basic strategy. What am I doing wrong??!!! Am I too short stacked. Should I have more risk tolerance and be buying in for $500. I'm an excellent card counter but just been getting
Unlucky. Any recommendations from the pros out there. Any way I should be changing play with different counts??? Im so frustrated with this game. But I keep
Hearing it's beatable. What am I doing wrong??

Okay, a lot of things...

1) You were probably playing blackjack while I was in the building checking things out ;-). I went on an international trip this past week and went through Florida as a hub in and out.

2) Okay, this one might bruise, but take it and own it... You don't sound like you have a winning game at blackjack. Basic strategy is a losing strategy in the long run. It's simply the best way to play the game IF you are going to play it.

3) This place is 8D H17, etc, etc, which results in a House Edge OVER .5%. This means you are LOSING MONEY if you up your bet before TC +2. Your first bet raise should be AT/AFTER TC +2. You stated when you'd get a +6 running count you'd raise your bet. This is a huge ERROR. Even at +6 after 2 decks, you're at TC +1, which still yields a HOUSE advantage, NOT a player advantage.

4) $300 can be a normal "buy-in" but if you understood RoR, variance, etc, you'd know that you need A LOT more than that in your pocket. Why do you think on any 1 given day a "non-basic strategy" and "non-counter" can win? We've all seen that drunk guy playing terribly, and yet he wins like $2k... Why is this? This is due to VARIANCE. In the long run, he will lose, guaranteed... But in the "short run" you can see varrying results. Take a coin flip for example. What's the odds of heads vs tails? Well, after 1,000,000 flips I'll bet you it's pretty damn close to 50/50... However, it IS possible to flip 5 heads in a row. Since you're playing a game with "on average" (assuming everything is being done correctly) 1-2% edge, you aren't much better off than a coin flip... Now in the long run of blackjack you again will realize your advantage, but on any one given night, you may win or lose. Blackjack is about getting to the long run (50k hands minimum).

5) Do you know the basic strategy differences between H17 and S17 in blackjack games? Do you know basic strategy 100% for either version of the game? Honestly, I'd be willing to bet you don't... and if you do, I'd still be willing to bet you're not counting 100%. Past that, you clearly do not have a proper bankroll or understand variance/RoR. You have a lot of research/reading to do, but the GOOD news is that it is easily available to you! It just depends on how much you want to learn and how much practice you want to put in.

5) Final thoughts/recommendations: Read my articles on this site. Focus on how to determine the house edge and build your spread appropriately based off your bankroll and RoR. Once you have a stable base bankroll, spread, RoR, etc, then it just comes down to counting and actually playing hand after hand in an attempt to get to the long run where you will come out with your profit in hand.

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Hopefully when you read (and reread) these you'll see a LOT of holes in your game and be able to patch them up. As I always state, feel free to comment on the articles, post in the A-Z thread, or PM me with questions. Best of luck.


Romes
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
camz1969
camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 12th, 2017 at 10:13:33 PM permalink
Romes,

So Tampa's 6/8D is beatable if you wait until TC +2 (and maybe some wonging out at negative counts)? What about the double deck games with H17? I don't remember all of the rules but I think the house edge is under .5% (according to Wizard's calculator). I had read another post about the idea of playing the double deck off the top until it goes negative and wong out. I'm trying to figure out the best way to play Tampa because it's my closest option. Us Floridians don't have much without going to great travel lengths.

-Mike
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 3598
Thanks for this post from:
LostWages
March 13th, 2017 at 9:52:06 AM permalink
Quote: camz1969

Romes,

So Tampa's 6/8D is beatable if you wait until TC +2 (and maybe some wonging out at negative counts)? What about the double deck games with H17? I don't remember all of the rules but I think the house edge is under .5% (according to Wizard's calculator). I had read another post about the idea of playing the double deck off the top until it goes negative and wong out. I'm trying to figure out the best way to play Tampa because it's my closest option. Us Floridians don't have much without going to great travel lengths.

-Mike

Hey camz,

Yes, 3/2 H17 DD games are definitely beatable. In general DD games usually come with a bit more heat, but alas... One of the more important rules (after concluding your game is 3/2 H17 DD) is Double After Split (DAS vs nDAS). One of these will put the game under .5 and the other way it will be over .5 (for most generic rules).

If you have a few games available to you then you could play the game off the top and wong out when negative. However another thing to note with DD the count could EASILY swing from positive to negative, or vise versa, in 1 hand. Thus your first hand could go -2, then the next hand +4 (which is slightly more than TC +2 and a good betting situation). When I play DD, I'll usually play down through TC -1 or even TC -2 (pending play/situation/etc). If you only have a couple DD games available to you without traveling, then you'll probably need to eat the cost and play down to TC -2 because this will keep your sitting out and table hopping (red flags when done very frequently) down a bit.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Nathan
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 426
March 13th, 2017 at 10:58:44 AM permalink
Nevermind.
Guy "won" less than his bet and the slot machine had the audacity to tell him he got a big win! SMH! Also, the Nintendo cartridge is so much more important than the Nintendo console. Without the cartridge, the Nintendo console is just a useless box.

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