Bust Bonus side bet: at what count is it profitable to make this bet?

Hi all, I've noticed many casinos in my area offer a side bet called "Bust Bonus" (the player gets paid when they make this side bet and the dealer ends up busting his/her hand). This side bet seems like a profitable one to make when the true count reaches a certain threshold (at least for dealer up cards 2-6). I'm wondering what the true count would need to reach before the odds for this side bet swing in the player's favor. The payout scheme is listed below. If someone can do the math utilizing both the Hi-Lo count, and the Uston APC count system, I'd be forever grateful!! I understand the count would need to be higher for this side bet to be profitable when the dealer is showing a 2 versus a 6, and is probably never a profitable bet when the dealer is showing a 7-Ace - but what are those thresholds?!

Any help is much appreciated - thanks!

Bust Bonus payouts (format: Dealer's up card, bust(non-suited), bust (suited)):

Ace, 3, 50
2, 1, 25
3, 1, 15
4,1,10
5,1,5
6,1,3
7,2,15
8,2,10
9,2,20
10,2,20
888, 25,75

I busted the other post as you may only post a topic once with no duplicates. Just notifying you so you don't wonder where it went.

One thread is fine. Someone will answer you shortly.

Questions: how many decks in the shoe, and is it H17 or S17?

Also, I assume there is no separate Ace Count for Uston APC.

I've seen this side bet offered for 2d, 6d, and 8d games. Dealer hits soft 17 in all cases. And there *is* a separate Ace Count for Uston APC (would it make a difference for this side bet?)

The HE = -8.1%, not worth to count.

Quote: ssho88

The HE = -8.1%, not worth to count.

Agreed - a simulation of 2 million 6-deck shoes doesn't get near profitability for any count. The closest the HE got to profitability was about 6%.

Thanks for the quick replies. Could you clarify what you mean by "HE"?

What if you were only to take this side bet when the dealer's up card is 4, 5, 6? Surely there is a true count high enough at which it becomes profitable to make this bet in such situations? Taking an extreme example: if the dealer up card is a 6, and you know there is nothing left in the deck but 10s, then the dealer is sure to bust. The player's expectation would be 100% in such a situation. Of course this theoretical situation is unlikely to happen in real play. But the point being, there must be a threshold at which the true count is high enough that the player's expectation for this side bet is positive.

Thanks for any help clarifying!

Quote: harikarilord

Thanks for the quick replies. Could you clarify what you mean by "HE"?

What if you were only to take this side bet when the dealer's up card is 4, 5, 6? Surely there is a true count high enough at which it becomes profitable to make this bet in such situations?

Clarification needed: you're allowed to see the dealer's up card before making the bet?

Yes, this side bet can be made after seeing the dealer's up card. I should have made this clear to begin with :)

After 20 million hands, I get something like this:
There don't seem to be any APC counts that give you an advantage.
However, using Hi-Lo, you may get a slight advantage if the count is -18 or lower, if the up card is 2 through 5.
It's hard to tell, as there just aren't that many instances where the count gets that low.

This doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense - maybe I'm missing something. The dealer should be more likely to bust when the count is *high*, not low. Per the Hi-Lo count, a higher count -> relatively more 10s in the deck -> higher chance of the dealer busting when showing an up card of 4,5,6 for example. A lower/negative count favors the dealer, as there are more low cards left in the deck that can complete the dealer's hand, not bust it.

So a quick gut check leads me to conclude that this could be a profitable side bet when the count is *high* enough, and the dealer is showing a 4,5,6. Even if the dealer is showing 2 or 3, there would still be a theoretical high count at which he/she is more likely to bust.

Understood that there would be no count when this would be a profitable bet if the dealer is showing a 7-A. But surely for up cards of 4,5,6 there is a reasonable high count where the odds favor making this bet?!?

Quote: harikarilord

This doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense - maybe I'm missing something. The dealer should be more likely to bust when the count is *high*, not low. Per the Hi-Lo count, a higher count -> relatively more 10s in the deck -> higher chance of the dealer busting when showing an up card of 4,5,6 for example. A lower/negative count favors the dealer, as there are more low cards left in the deck that can complete the dealer's hand, not bust it.

So a quick gut check leads me to conclude that this could be a profitable side bet when the count is *high* enough, and the dealer is showing a 4,5,6. Even if the dealer is showing 2 or 3, there would still be a theoretical high count at which he/she is more likely to bust.

Understood that there would be no count when this would be a profitable bet if the dealer is showing a 7-A. But surely for up cards of 4,5,6 there is a reasonable high count where the odds favor making this bet?!?

The problem is when the count is high(Hi Low), the probability for dealer's up card 4,5,or 6 is low. Meaning betting frequency is LOW.

Quote: ssho88

The problem is when the count is high(Hi Low), the probability for dealer's up card 4,5,or 6 is low. Meaning betting frequency is LOW.

but you can place the bet AFTER the up card is revealed. so it's not a problem.

Quote: andysif

but you can place the bet AFTER the up card is revealed. so it's not a problem.

Dealer only show the up card "8" once in 13 rounds ! Probability of showing up card "8" is even lower when high count. The HE= -5%.

This follow by dealer's up card 7(HE= -6.2%) and 4(HE = -7.3%). House edge for other dealer's up card varies from -7.7% to -10.2%.

Quote: ssho88

Dealer only show the up card "8" once in 13 rounds ! Probability of showing up card "8" is even lower when high count. The HE= -5%.

This follow by dealer's up card 7(HE= -6.2%) and 4(HE = -7.3%). House edge for other dealer's up card varies from -7.7% to -10.2%.

The question isn't about frequency (how often a 4-5-6 would appear even in a high count). The question is say you have a TC +3 (Hi/Low), and then the dealer shows a 6 up, IS the bet now profitable?

Instinctively, without running any math, I would want to say I'd think about betting the bust bet when I hit deviations, a bulk of which there are at TC +3. My gut tells me the index for this would probably be a bit higher though. Again, without any math but an 'experienced' guess, I'd say around TC +4 or +5 for dealer up cards 4-5-6. I also presume as the count got higher it would make it more profitable for lower cards as well. All in all, my experienced guess says this wouldn't be profitable very often, but to address the OP's question, I too believe there's a point where it is profitable (given you already see the dealers up card).

The 5,6 bust break even point is at about TC +10.

Quote: 21forme

The 5,6 bust break even point is at about TC +10.

The problem here is you have to wait until TC>+10 and dealer's up card is a 5 or 6. That just NOT(or very rare) going to happen !

I think dealer's up card "8" is a most countable bet, NOT 4,5 or 6.

Just for your info, Hi Low is a weak count for Bust Bonus sidebet.

Not really a problem. I simply consider this sidebet not worth the time of day and ignore it when I see it.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

After 20 million hands, I get something like this:
There don't seem to be any APC counts that give you an advantage.
However, using Hi-Lo, you may get a slight advantage if the count is -18 or lower, if the up card is 2 through 5.
It's hard to tell, as there just aren't that many instances where the count gets that low.

Your simulation makes sense to me. I recently developed a simple counting system, called ace-6, to beat this side bet. Ace-6 means a deficit of aces at a high true count and a surplus of sixes in the remaining deck. You count aces as +1 and sixes as -1, exactly opposite to HiLo. At high TC, you bet on bust bonus; at low TC, you bet more on blackjack. You do not need HiLo for regular blackjack. Could you help simulate this?