My very humbling 2014 BJ results.

I usually end my blackjack year just before Xmas and take a break during the week between Christmas and New Years. This year, I have been working extra hard the last 2 months, really pushing myself, playing more than usual, trying to rack up as much EV as I could and hoping that turned into a bit of a year end rally. I had sort of planned to play right through my Christmas break up to New Years Eve. But today, I decided I would take my holiday break. Just because my results are down this year is no reason to punish myself. I have worked very hard and I deserve this break.

Let me share a little recap of my year. I got off to a slow start, spending a number of weeks early in the year training a friend, which didn't pan out. I ran just about 50% of expectation the whole first half of the year. Then late in the summer, took a nose dive and actually dipped into the red for the year as late as July. The fall brought a couple good runs, but each time, I though I had a chance to close in on expectation, I seemed to hit a negative run and take a step backwards.

So here's my solo play blackjack numbers for 2014: $27,345 vs EV of $87,622 for the amount of play I put in. That's less than 30% of expectation. For comparison purposes, my 2012 results were $81,075 and my 2013 results $115,425. So my 27 grand is about 1/4 of what I have averaged over the last 2 years. Yikes!

Now again, these are my own personal, solo BJ numbers. I have a partner and we split some supplementary AP play, a small amount of team BJ play...my own version of the call in approach (mostly out of town) and we also split the profits from some +EV machine play. The EV from these two partnership AP play is in the neighborhood of 40 grand. We are currently running just under that @ about 36 grand with a couple grand in free play yet to play in the next week.

So my total AP income should come in somewhere around $45K for 2014. That compared to $121K in 2012 and $138K in 2013. So again, I am going to bring in about 1/3 of what I brought in each of the last 2 years. No surprise really, as my solo blackjack results are going to be the driving force behind my total numbers each year. My BJ EV should account for 80% of my total win. So in an off BJ year like this year, my numbers will be down across the board, just as they were substantially up last year on a better than expectation year. I know this, but just have never experienced it on the down side like this.

This year was VERY humbling. Just when I was beginning to pat myself on the back and think that I had become a real strong player with a great plan of attack (short sessions, tracking multiple tables), which resulted in my better than expected results over the last couple years, last year in particular, I come to find out I am not so special. Just had a good year (last year) on the plus side of variance or the bell curve.

But humbling as this year was, it has been a great learning experience, just as all the years before it were. I really haven't had any two years that have been all that similar. They all seem to be unique and offer some valuable lessons. So, even in a year with very subpar results, I am very optimistic and very happy with my life. I love my life. I still love Blackjack. I love Vegas. And I love that I am able to make a reasonably comfortable living (at least what I consider comfortable) playing blackjack.

The real question is, were the two good years
a fluke, and this year was closer to norm. Or
the other way around.

Great post. You have made no secret of how the year was going, but sorry to hear it didn't turn around late. I know you put the work in, but just are not seeing the results. Next year will be much better and the good news, if any, is that you owe a lot less taxes.

If you can answer without giving too much up, is there anything in the playing climate you observed this year that might have hurt earnings? You were way below EV, so I don't know if that is even an issue.

Quote: Boz

Great post. You have made no secret of how the year was going, but sorry to hear it didn't turn around late. I know you put the work in, but just are not seeing the results. Next year will be much better and the good news, if any, is that you owe a lot less taxes.

If you can answer without giving too much up, is there anything in the playing climate you observed this year that might have hurt earnings? You were way below EV, so I don't know if that is even an issue.

I don't consider owing less taxes a benefit, Boz. lol. I would gladly pay more on a bigger return. :)

I don't think there was change in climate or conditions that contributed to my subpar year. Thee are two sides to the bell curve. I think I just hit the down side this year. ya know, sometimes you are the windshield.....sometimes the bug. :)

As far as BJ conditions in Vegas, that is always one of my big concerns and worries. I didn't notice any major decline in conditions. Maybe a few less blackjack games as there are so many new games competing for floor space. There was the well publicized decline in conditions at the upper end Italian themed strip properties, which switched to 6-5 games (they weren't in my rotation anyway), but there were a couple stores in my regular rotation where conditions improved. One store began offering late surrender and another increased penetration. :)

Quote: EvenBob

The real question is, were the two good years
a fluke, and this year was closer to norm. Or
the other way around.

Here are my BJ only results from my 5 year living in Vegas, playing at or about the same levels:

2010 +$78,925
2011 +$62,050 (missed almost 3 months after heart surgery)
2012 +$81,075
2013 +$115,425
2014 +$27,345

My expectation (accumulated EV) is usually between $75,000 and $80,000 depending on just how much I play. 2010, 2011 and 2012 actual results were very close to EV. 2013 and 2014 were the 2 years that swung, one each direction away from expectation. 2013, I didn't think all that much about it. As I said, I credited to superior play on my part. :) This year was the eye opener for me. I don't think any were a fluke. In this profession, you are just dealing with a range of expectation. That is one of the things you need to learn to deal with and I am still learning that lesson.

And actually, one of the lessons I think I learned this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance. I live by my signature that if you play long enough, results will come in line with expectation. In the past that time frame has always fit nicely into a year. The past 2 years it hasn't. But add em all up and average them out and I am pretty close to expectation, just as my signature suggests. :)

Quote: kewlj

2010 +$78,925
2011 +$62,050 (missed almost 3 months after heart surgery)
2012 +$81,075
2013 +$115,425
2014 +$27,345

LOL, it just struck me what is going on.
You got your average if you add last
year and this year together. If you put
$70K for 2013 and 2014, you're right
where you should be. I see this all the
time in what I do, it always averages
out in the end. You are exactly where
you should be.

Quote: EvenBob

LOL, it just struck me what is going on.
You got your average if you add last
year and this year together. If you put
$70K for 2013 and 2014, you're right
where you should be. I see this all the
time in what I do, it always averages
out in the end. You are exactly where
you should be.

That may be, EB. And that is fine. As I said, I kind of figured or maybe it was hoped that my strong 2013 results were a result of better, stronger play, as I continue to learn and improve my game. But now I figure not so much. Just variance. Lol. So that was kind of humbling.

$70-$80 grand a year is just about expectation for my BJ play and another 20K from my partnership other AP activities, and that is fine with me. That is a level I am comfortable with and think I can play for a while (longevity). I feel like once you move to higher limits, which would take you above these levels, your longevity is compromised.

What you don't want is two really bad
years in a row, then two really good
ones to even it out. Hard on the nerves.

Thank you for the report Kewlj, it's really insteresting to me to see your years/EV and how they play out. I really do appreciate you sharing your professional story/stories and, of course, the scoreboard of you vs casino. Time to have a drink, toast the end of the year, and use the gamblers fallacy to say "well this year was below EV, next year must be above!" =)

I've seen Seattle win the last couple weeks. Are you still hanging on to that bet?

I posted that, went to brush my teeth to head to bed and thought of about a hundred questions I wanted to ask =p. If you don't want to answer any of them, just say so and no worries... I'm just curious because you say you keep to short sessions. You must have a huge rotation? Even if your rotation was a couple dozen or so places then most places, over the course of the last 5 years, would have to start recognizing you. I assume you play unrated, because then even with ratholing, the amount you're making each year (even spread out over the casino's) still would show up on a win/loss statement as always positive (for most places). But then you say you and your AP partner have a few thousand in promotional chips, so someone is playing something rated? Do you ever play rated? Have you ever had any issues over the past few years with heat/86/etc?

I'm also curious how many hours you generally play in a given week. Since you stick to short sessions, if you walk in to a casino and make $5k in 20 min, do you just hop to the next one in the rotation? Do you have a specific number where you just hop to the next? For that matter, do you have a specific number where you just call it a day, or do you always play the same number of hours every day/week?

Sorry for the BLOB of questions, just thinking about your play even when I've shut the laptop for the night lol. Again, thank you for your year end story/numbers.

Quote: kewlj

But add em all up and average them out and I am pretty close to expectation, just as my signature suggests. :)

Quote: kewlj

I measure the results of each session in EV rather than money actually won or lost. That way every session is a winning session and in the end the two will come back in line with each other.

I've never understood expectation as a measure of progress. If a beautiful girl wearing something slinky sits next to you at a Blackjack table, your expectations do not matter. She either grabs an appropriate part of your anatomy and drags you up to her room and has her way with you or she doesn't. Your expectations don't count. You do not count the knee capping; you do not count the number of times you've had your face slapped, you count the number of times you've been laid.

If you get shot at by a .32 and it misses you are not any safer or better off than if it been a 38.

The ONLY measure of gain in blackjack is MONEY that you leave the table with.

Expectation is a good measure to indicate how well/correctly you're playing.

In terms of females: it's not about the outcome of a single night. Suppose you record the night's outcome of not one but 100,000 girls wearing something slinky and sitting next to you at a BJ table over the period of a year. If less than half of them grab that appropriate body part, then your game is off. You need to adjust your game accordingly the next year.

Quote: FleaStiff

I've never understood expectation as a measure of progress. If a beautiful girl wearing something slinky sits next to you at a Blackjack table, your expectations do not matter. She either grabs an appropriate part of your anatomy and drags you up to her room and has her way with you or she doesn't. Your expectations don't count. You do not count the knee capping; you do not count the number of times you've had your face slapped, you count the number of times you've been laid.

If you get shot at by a .32 and it misses you are not any safer or better off than if it been a 38.

The ONLY measure of gain in blackjack is MONEY that you leave the table with.

You are describing desire, not expectation. Do you really expect every female who sits down to drag you up to her room and have her way with you?

Quote: wudged

Do you really expect every female who sits down to drag you up to her room and have her way with you?

...There are other people at the table?

I understand what he is doing with expectation as I do the same with VP. With VP I know that if I have 1250 points then I played 1000 hands therefor expectation is easy to figure out. When playing BJ you are making a pure guess. I guess you can say it is an educated guess but it is not accurate. I am sure he has it down to a science but what if his science started out incorrect? He also mentioned that he changed some max bets and how often they are put out there. The bigger the spread the tougher it would be to estimate the average bet which in turn would make the EV wrong.

the thing that would bug me is suspecting my edge was not as good as I thought

however, the track record speaks for itself

Quote: GWAE

I understand what he is doing with expectation as I do the same with VP. With VP I know that if I have 1250 points then I played 1000 hands therefor expectation is easy to figure out. When playing BJ you are making a pure guess. I guess you can say it is an educated guess but it is not accurate. I am sure he has it down to a science but what if his science started out incorrect? He also mentioned that he changed some max bets and how often they are put out there. The bigger the spread the tougher it would be to estimate the average bet which in turn would make the EV wrong.

I would say it's more of an informed estimate than an educated guess, especially for someone like KJ who has been doing this for a while. When I estimate my EV, it's more of a SWAG, because it's just a hobby and my livelihood doesn't depend on it. But if you ask KJ to explain his methodology for estimating EV (he's described the process on this board before, but I don't have the time to find it), I think you'll find it's pretty sound.

Kewlj, thanks for sharing your results; it's always good to have a reminder that counting cards is not a license to print money, even with the number of hours you put in as a full-time job.

The only question I have for you is if you felt the squeeze at all this year in terms of paying the bills. If I remember correctly, you bought a house this year, right? (Maybe it was last year.) Now, being a smart guy, I'm assuming you give yourself a WIDE safety margin and keep your expenses under control. Especially in a place like Vegas, which can be expensive if you let it be, but has a pretty low cost of living for the frugal person.

Fleastiff: Your example is amusing and very humorous. But blackjack and card counting correlate closely to the mathematics involved. It's not difficult math, but it really is about the math. Your final observation is very true though, the only numbers that really matter are your actual wins and losses. :)

Romes: I do have a regular rotation of stores. The total number is just about 30. Some I play only a couple times a month, some I play several times a week, visiting different times and pit folks. I play blackjack unrated 95% of the time. The exception would be if there is some special benefit to playing rated, something beyond the comps earned. We get all the comps we need from our machine play.

I try to get in and out with as little attention as possible. One trick to this is keeping a chip inventory, so you avoid buy-ins. You just walk up and play without the dealer calling anything out. Yes, there is a look of recognition from some pit folks, when they see me. This is where identifying and playing within comfort or tolerance levels comes into play, which is something I have really been working on the last few years. Few pit folks WANT to back you off. They do so to protect their own ass. If you play within a level that they can tolerate, especially if they know from past experience that you will only be there a short time, you have given them a second option. Just do nothing and you will be out of their hair.

I think you misunderstood my comment about still having some outstanding free play. The free play that I was referring to is free play that must be played on a machine. We still have some of that to play.

GWAE: estimating EV has become pretty easy. Norm's software (Qfit) does all the work....right down to providing an expectation number per hand played (for each set of conditions). You then just multiply the EV per hand by the number of rounds played.

Aces&Eights: I did buy a house last year and a second one this spring. Had the blackjack gods shared what was in store this year, perhaps I would have held off on that second one, although it was a good opportunity and provides me with a little bit of rental income. A little bit of secondary income, while not directly from AP, I was able to buy the house because of AP earnings, so sort of indirectly AP income. :) (maybe that's a stretch)

Vegas does have a low cost of living, especially housing, both renting and buying. People coming from California or one of the big east coast cities are shockingly surprised at housing costs.

Great thread, kewlj. You and I are about the same income bracket. Although I enjoy less variance than you do. It's rare for me to have a losing day like I described in the cap trap thread. I would make more money if I worked harder, less if I didn't work so hard. It amazes me how professional you are about it. If you and your partner ever take a Montana vacation I would love to meet you.

Quote: wudged

Do you really expect every female who sits down to drag you up to her room and have her way with you?

Alas, No. I was trying to start other poster's day with a little levity while focusing on the issue of how profits and losses are measured. Irrespective of a players knowledge of the house edge, his session is measured by the absolute value of his wins and losses, not his wins and losses in relation to what is expected.

Quote: kewlj

I don't consider owing less taxes a benefit, Boz. lol. I would gladly pay more on a bigger return. :)

I don't think there was change in climate or conditions that contributed to my subpar year. Thee are two sides to the bell curve. I think I just hit the down side this year. ya know, sometimes you are the windshield.....sometimes the bug. :)

As far as BJ conditions in Vegas, that is always one of my big concerns and worries. I didn't notice any major decline in conditions. Maybe a few less blackjack games as there are so many new games competing for floor space. There was the well publicized decline in conditions at the upper end Italian themed strip properties, which switched to 6-5 games (they weren't in my rotation anyway), but there were a couple stores in my regular rotation where conditions improved. One store began offering late surrender and another increased penetration. :)

I don't see anywhere where you mention expenses. It seems the numbers you are posting are net win numbers subtracting money in from money out. You can't possibly operate expense free can you? Gas, food, etc?


ZCore13





Here are my BJ only results from my 5 year living in Vegas, playing at or about the same levels:

2010 +$78,925
2011 +$62,050 (missed almost 3 months after heart surgery)
2012 +$81,075
2013 +$115,425
2014 +$27,345

My expectation (accumulated EV) is usually between $75,000 and $80,000 depending on just how much I play. 2010, 2011 and 2012 actual results were very close to EV. 2013 and 2014 were the 2 years that swung, one each direction away from expectation. 2013, I didn't think all that much about it. As I said, I credited to superior play on my part. :) This year was the eye opener for me. I don't think any were a fluke. In this profession, you are just dealing with a range of expectation. That is one of the things you need to learn to deal with and I am still learning that lesson.

And actually, one of the lessons I think I learned this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance. I live by my signature that if you play long enough, results will come in line with expectation. In the past that time frame has always fit nicely into a year. The past 2 years it hasn't. But add em all up and average them out and I am pretty close to expectation, just as my signature suggests. :)

Quote: kewlj

And actually, one of the lessons I think I learned this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance. I live by my signature that if you play long enough, results will come in line with expectation. In the past that time frame has always fit nicely into a year. The past 2 years it hasn't. But add em all up and average them out and I am pretty close to expectation, just as my signature suggests. :)

I absolutely agree with KJ. Nice to meet you here from Blackjackinfo.

I would play what I would call an Inverted EV game.
I never look at what I win or lose. I see myself as how the casino would see me. Meaning what is my ADT. So win or lose in any session doesn't mean anything to me. I calculate in each session that I would lose $XXX and know I have being lucky or unlucky due to Variance.

Let me give you some insight into my play. I play perfect BS ( CSM) only here. House Advantage 0.43%. I am playing for the Comps. So I am on the cruise ship 1 or 2 times a month. I calculate I should be paying 10% to 20% of the usual selling price of the cruise. If it is more than that then I would stop cruising.

The ship casino award point based only on the table minimum and give so many points per hour of play. So I flat bet all the way. To get the maximum points I play only on a very crowded table ( speed of play) and preferably with a slow dealer. The casino gives 1 free cruise night for every 10 points earned. There are times when I am tired of the variance or it is past my normal sleeping time, then I would buy the points from the casino when I am already close to the 10 points mark.

I would use the roulette electronic gaming machine. It would cost me 5 times per point more than playing BJ. I would bet $35 on red and black and $2 on 0 ( single 0 ) here. I would lose $2 every round but chalk up points. There have been times when just after a few round and spending a few $ it would push me over the 10 points mark.

Sorry KJ your lifestyle is not for me.
You must be very street smart now and looking over your shoulders all the time and have the mentality or fear of not knowing when you will get that cold tap on the shoulder. There is no normalcy in your life and it varies from minutes to minutes. Not knowing when your 10x bet would win or lose would make a difference to your mood even as you said you have learn to discount this. Human nature is always there however much you think you got over this. Good Luck

Quote: Deck007

I absolutely agree with KJ. Nice to meet you here from Blackjackinfo.

I would play what I would call an Inverted EV game.

Sorry KJ your lifestyle is not for me. You must be street smart and looking over your shoulders all the time and have the mentality or fear of not knowing when you will get that cold tap on the shoulder. There is no normalcy in your life and it varies from minutes to minutes. Not knowing when your 10x bet would win or lose would make a difference to your mood even as you said you have learn to discount this. Human nature is always there however much you think you got over this. Good Luck

Howdy Deck007.

I can understand playing blackjack or any type of AP play for a living is not for many folks. But you can reduce what you are referring to as "no normalcy" or abnormalcy. I think I have done that. I think my life is more "normal" than most other players that I know that play for a living. Most of them are on the road all the time, traveling constantly, sleeping weeks and months at a time in casino hotels. I have made my life as close to a regular job as someon playing for a living can.

As far as human nature, you would be surprised as to how much and quickly you can adjust. :)

Funny follow-up: I shared my results on one of the blackjack sites that I frequent as well. I received an email from another member, a player that plays part-time, pointing out that a fulltime worker @ McDonalds making $10 and hour would make 20 grand a year. And since I probably put in closer to 50 hours a week counting travel, scouting, record keeping....it works out to about the same. If that McDonald's worker worked 50 hours, we would have made about the same.

That was uplifting. Lol

Quote: kewlj

Funny follow-up: I shared my results on one of the blackjack sites that I frequent as well. I received an email from another member, a player that plays part-time, pointing out that a fulltime worker @ McDonalds making $10 and hour would make 20 grand a year. And since I probably put in closer to 50 hours a week counting travel, scouting, record keeping....it works out to about the same. If that McDonald's worker worked 50 hours, we would have made about the same.

That was uplifting. Lol

Don't think he made over 100K last year, though.

Quote: kewlj

Howdy Deck007.

I can understand playing blackjack or any type of AP play for a living is not for many folks. But you can reduce what you are referring to as "no normalcy" or abnormalcy. I think I have done that. I think my life is more "normal" than most other players that I know that play for a living. Most of them are on the road all the time, traveling constantly, sleeping weeks and months at a time in casino hotels. I have made my life as close to a regular job as someon playing for a living can.

As far as human nature, you would be surprised as to how much and quickly you can adjust. :)

Well I take your word on this.
But convincing me and agreeing with you on this is a different matter.

Quote: EvenBob

What you don't want is two really bad
years in a row, then two really good
ones to even it out. Hard on the nerves.

Actually that's a loss. Taxes on winning years, but losses and wins don't carry over.

His taxes on his biggest year plus taxes on his lowest year means zero profit for an entire year.

From the sounds of it him and his partner make about 40k a year each after taxes.

Quote: AxelWolf

From the sounds of it him and his partner make about 40k a year each after taxes.

How on earth did you come up with this? Lol.

For starters, we don't make the same amount. I make at least double, closer to 3 times what he does, because I play much more blackjack. My share of earnings was 138K in 2013 and 121K in 2012. I am not in the 67-70% tax bracket. Lol.

Quote: kewlj

How on earth did you come up with this? Lol.

For starters, we don't make the same amount. I make at least double, closer to 3 times what he does, because I play much more blackjack. My share of earnings was 138K in 2013 and 121K in 2012. I am not in the 67-70% tax bracket. Lol.

I assumed you split everything.

I thought you mentioned something that lead me to believe that his VP and your BJ was shared income.

Quote: AxelWolf

I assumed you split everything.

We spilt our machine play and a small amount of team BJ play (my own unique version of call-in approach) 50-50. Individual BJ play goes into a 'pot' and then is divided by EV % contributed. Since I play 3-4 times as much, I get the majority of that 'pot', which is fair because I contributed the majority. I do it this way because in theory, this should help get to the so called "long-run" faster and smooth out variance. But in reality it would work a lot better if we both were contributing equal or at least closer to equal amounts of play or if there was more members of the team contributing to the 'pot'.

Always remember the guy who "only made six percent on his money": He bought steaks for one dollar and sold them for seven dollars, thus making his six percent. He may not have been too good with math but he sure got the idea of making money down right.

Quote: kewlj

Since I play 3-4 times as much, I get the majority of that 'pot', which is fair because I contributed the majority.

So why doesn't he play as much as you do.
Doesn't sound fair to you at all.

Quote: EvenBob

So why doesn't he play as much as you do.
Doesn't sound fair to you at all.

If you must know (not sure why), he has some limitations regarding his back that makes it difficult to sit for extended periods of time. For some reason blackjack tables bring out the worst in his back issues. I think the chairs usually don't offer very good support, plus most of the time you are leaning forward away from the back support.

His primary job is to handle all of our machine play, which is something I really didn't like doing, so that frees me up to play blackjack (and we see what a good job I did with THAT this year...lol). He also acts as my chauffer. Driving is another task that I really don't care for. He has some other duties pertaining to organizing my chip inventory as well, so I can enter games without a buy-in and leave without coloring up or cashing out. :)

The 'pot' system is quite fair, IMO. For instance last year when I over-performed EV, he benefited as his 'share' was more than he actually won. This year with me underperforming EV, his share will be less than he actually won, while mine is a little more. As I said, earlier, the 'pot' system would work better with a more balanced contributions or with more players contributing, but it still serves it's purpose of smoothing variance out just a bit.

The big thing that you have over others is not only your blackjack skill, but a great business partner who you can trust. I find that to be the biggest things in this line of business, since one handles so much paper cash and it's pretty much impossible to count down (no pun intended) to the last dollar where everything goes. Also your business partner is your spouse so that helps too :)

It seems to me that it's pretty simple to find someone who can play VP or BJ but harder to find someone I can trust to carry team money. Luckily as you all know I ran into some awesome people out here (Axelwolf, Peredition, and other partners) so I don't have to worry about this at all.

Quote: kewlj

Funny follow-up: I shared my results on one of the blackjack sites that I frequent as well. I received an email from another member, a player that plays part-time, pointing out that a fulltime worker @ McDonalds making $10 and hour would make 20 grand a year. And since I probably put in closer to 50 hours a week counting travel, scouting, record keeping....it works out to about the same. If that McDonald's worker worked 50 hours, we would have made about the same.

That was uplifting. Lol

Quote: Mission146

Don't think he made over 100K last year, though.

I would get a good Accountant to reduce your taxes.

All the travel, scouting, record keeping, tipping, meals you pay for, other incidentals, etc, that the Accountant can come up with.

It can reduce your tax bill as it would add up to be a pretty substantial amount.

Quote: kewlj

I try to get in and out with as little attention as possible. One trick to this is keeping a chip inventory, so you avoid buy-ins. You just walk up and play without the dealer calling anything out.

kewlj,

I thought that the conventional wisdom was to always buy in, for cash, and small bills ($20 v. $100), and to always play rated, which draws the floor person if for no other reason than to log you in.

Granted, I know I play a much lower game than you do, so maybe buying in at your level is sure to gather some interest.

But what's the best approach, if I could ask, about all of this? Buy in for cash or bring chips? play rated or not?

I find it very interesting and helpful to read about your experiences, both for a good dose of reality as well as some valuable clues about how to conduct yourself. Many thanks.

Quote: racquet

kewlj,

I thought that the conventional wisdom was to always buy in, for cash, and small bills ($20 v. $100), and to always play rated, which draws the floor person if for no other reason than to log you in.

Granted, I know I play a much lower game than you do, so maybe buying in at your level is sure to gather some interest.

But what's the best approach, if I could ask, about all of this? Buy in for cash or bring chips? play rated or not?

I find it very interesting and helpful to read about your experiences, both for a good dose of reality as well as some valuable clues about how to conduct yourself. Many thanks.

Avoiding a buy in means you can play half a shoe before the floorperson notices you. In some cases it means you might be gone before they see you which means less exposure

Quote: racquet

kewlj,

I thought that the conventional wisdom was to always buy in, for cash, and small bills ($20 v. $100), and to always play rated, which draws the floor person if for no other reason than to log you in.

Granted, I know I play a much lower game than you do, so maybe buying in at your level is sure to gather some interest.

But what's the best approach, if I could ask, about all of this? Buy in for cash or bring chips? play rated or not?

I find it very interesting and helpful to read about your experiences, both for a good dose of reality as well as some valuable clues about how to conduct yourself. Many thanks.

Conventional wisdom? Who's conventional wisdom? Lol. You do what works best for you and your situation.

When I buy in, I do buy-in for small amounts, $100 at a $25 table. That's 4 minimum wagers. And for effect, I do try to buy in for 20's and 10's rather than a Benjamin. I'll even go to the trouble to break down some $100 beforehand. This immediately gives the impression that I don't have much money, am not staying long and am no threat. That is the first impression and first impressions are big in this game. Now again, that is IF I buy in.

But if you play the same rotation of stores as I do, a better way to go is to have a chip inventory. As Sc15 stated, this allows you to skip that first impression stage altogether, which is even better. You just walk up and start playing with a few chips in hand and some more in your pocket. The dealer doesn't have to get any kind of "ok" from the pit and often you can enter unnoticed. Occasionally you can enter, play showing your spread and exit, without any kind of interaction from the pit. :)

Keeping a chip inventory also means you don't need to color up when exiting, nor head to the cashier to cash out (which is where they often get the best camera shot of you). You just shove chips in your pocket and head for the door. If done properly, you minimize all interactions with pit and cashier and that is a very good thing for your longevity.

At what point do you decide to cash in chips? Like for example anytime you get your chip inventory over $500? Or once a month?

Quote: Beardgoat

At what point do you decide to cash in chips? Like for example anytime you get your chip inventory over $500? Or once a month?

Yes, you do have to 'manage' your chip inventory. That is one of my partner's responsibilities. There have been times, the chip inventory was so mismanaged, we had a stock pile of chips, but little cash on hand to buy in at places where we had no chips. :( But he is doing a much better job of managing now. You really don't want or need any more than $500 to $1000 (at most) in chips from any one place and you don't want anything above black. Anything more than these limits or colors needs to be cashed in.

Also wanted to post a update to my humbling year, which I probably would be better off not doing, but am going to anyway.

My 2015 started off with a bang. Two of my first 4 days were 5 figure win days, including January 1 (great way to start the year). Both were barely 5 figures. This is unusual for me, because at my levels I only record about a dozen or so 5 figure days per year, so 2 in 4 days was very interesting. Yesterday, I actually bumped up above my whole 2014 blackjack total before falling back a bit.

I am not posting this to brag or anything....hell I am liable to be in the red in a couple weeks. This is the kind of little run, I was hoping for to close out 2014 and make my BJ numbers more respectable and a little bit more in line with expectation. Just goes to show, the wins and loses in this game come when the blackjack gods determine they will come, not on your schedule. Lol.

Nice job kewlj, hope you continue your early success in 2015. Your experiences definitely demonstrate the swings that card counters can expect to find.

One mistake I will admit to is that having a good day, I dump off some of it on stupid things because I said to myself I had a good day I'm gonna treat myself.... And forget about all the horrible days I had despite great +EV. Have you had this before and did it take you a while to learn from it? My resolution this year is to not spend a lot donking off my winnings on shiny rims or whatever lol

kewlj, thanks for the continued update! I always love reading about true professionals, and their stories/results. It's why I continue to purchase blackjack books =p. I hope to learn at least 1 new thing from them, but mostly I love seeing different perspectives and hearing the different stories that are in them. I guess I do really love the game that much. I hope you have continued success in to 2015, I'll be rooting for you!

Quote: djatc

One mistake I will admit to is that having a good day, I dump off some of it on stupid things because I said to myself I had a good day I'm gonna treat myself.... And forget about all the horrible days I had despite great +EV. Have you had this before and did it take you a while to learn from it? My resolution this year is to not spend a lot donking off my winnings on shiny rims or whatever lol

While I have even done this myself, if you're not a PRO and every dollar isn't going to your bottom line, I still personally believe you should buy something with some of your winnings after perhaps a couple good sessions. That way no matter how the variance flies, you'll have very real things in your life as a direct result of your AP game. My partner bought a new toilet for his bathroom remodel after a couple nice trips we had in a row. Now every time he drops a deuce, he can remember that he's doing it on that casino's dime. It's really the small things in life =).

Quote: kewlj

Keeping a chip inventory also means you don't need to color up when exiting, nor head to the cashier to cash out (which is where they often get the best camera shot of you). You just shove chips in your pocket and head for the door. If done properly, you minimize all interactions with pit and cashier and that is a very good thing for your longevity.

Kewlj, usually the dealer would ask people to color up their winnings. Do you just say no and leave?

Quote: kewlj

Also wanted to post a update to my humbling year, which I probably would be better off not doing, but am going to anyway.

My 2015 started off with a bang. Two of my first 4 days were 5 figure win days, including January 1 (great way to start the year). Both were barely 5 figures. This is unusual for me, because at my levels I only record about a dozen or so 5 figure days per year, so 2 in 4 days was very interesting. Yesterday, I actually bumped up above my whole 2014 blackjack total before falling back a bit.

I am not posting this to brag or anything....hell I am liable to be in the red in a couple weeks. This is the kind of little run, I was hoping for to close out 2014 and make my BJ numbers more respectable and a little bit more in line with expectation. Just goes to show, the wins and loses in this game come when the blackjack gods determine they will come, not on your schedule. Lol.

Thanks for the update. The swings, they are relentless.

Quote: Kickass

Kewlj, usually the dealer would ask people to color up their winnings. Do you just say no and leave?

They can ask but, I am under no obligation to color up. I just say something like "no I am good", but most importantly I say it as I am walking away. I don't stand there and have a conversation. If there is any follow up question or comment on the dealers part, he/she is going to have to yell, because I will be a good distance away in a matter of seconds.

Quote: kewlj

Also wanted to post a update to my humbling year, which I probably would be better off not doing, but am going to anyway.

My 2015 started off with a bang. Two of my first 4 days were 5 figure win days, including January 1 (great way to start the year). Both were barely 5 figures. This is unusual for me, because at my levels I only record about a dozen or so 5 figure days per year, so 2 in 4 days was very interesting. Yesterday, I actually bumped up above my whole 2014 blackjack total before falling back a bit.

Assuming you play every day of the year (I forget how many you play) then the probability based on 12/365 five figure days of the year of two (or more) coming in a four day period is:

0.006204488394 or 1/0.006204488394 = 1 in 161.174---Exactly two would be 1 in 164.857

Awesome start!

Quote: djatc

One mistake I will admit to is that having a good day, I dump off some of it on stupid things because I said to myself I had a good day I'm gonna treat myself.... And forget about all the horrible days I had despite great +EV. Have you had this before and did it take you a while to learn from it? My resolution this year is to not spend a lot donking off my winnings on shiny rims or whatever lol

This ^^^

Almost my same resolution. Great post.

Quote: kewlj

They can ask but, I am under no obligation to color up. I just say something like "no I am good", but most importantly I say it as I am walking away. I don't stand there and have a conversation. If there is any follow up question or comment on the dealers part, he/she is going to have to yell, because I will be a good distance away in a matter of seconds.

I really wish I could see you in action, lol. In my experience dealers are pretty adamant about you coloring up, I honestly would have never thought to just put the chips in my pocket and leave. To me, it seems like just putting a big stack or two of chips in your pocket would be way out of the ordinary for most people, as would just leaving the casino before cashing them in. I would think that it would draw attention to you. I suppose if you are only playing one good shoe though and don't buy in the pit bosses don't notice you until you are out the door. Obviously this approach has worked for you though so keep up the good work!

Quote: djatc

One mistake I will admit to is that having a good day, I dump off some of it on stupid things because I said to myself I had a good day I'm gonna treat myself.... And forget about all the horrible days I had despite great +EV. Have you had this before and did it take you a while to learn from it? My resolution this year is to not spend a lot donking off my winnings on shiny rims or whatever lol

Did you used to be a poker player? There are a lot of otherwise skilled poker players who have AWFUL bankroll management that you're unlikely to see among most advantage players. They call it a "leak", which is a lame excuse. It doesn't have anything to do with their poker game, donking off hard earned winnings on games you aren't skilled at isn't a "leak", it just means you're a degenerate who happens to be skilled in one area (not calling all recreational players degens, don't misinterpret).

Sounds like you are more talking about just impulse buys on un-needed consumer goods, buying things you normally wouldn't. Not such a big deal, it's the American way to buy crap you don't need if you have the scratch. Maybe just don't buy anything over X amount that isn't necessary on a 2k+ winning day to try to be disciplined if that's important to you? Kind of like not grocery shopping when you are hungry.

Kind of similarly, recently noticed a tendency when I find something really good to play, to sometimes count my chickens before they hatch and spend on a couple things, nothing major, with the justification "I'm going to be spending X number of hours on Y game over the next month, so I'll be reasonably certain to profit at least Z if I run 1 standard deviation south." It is not taking money out of the BR but my living expense fund. Which is kind of dumb and worse because (A) Can't count on strong plays lasting long with much certainty. (B) When I have something better than I typically find, best to save/allocate the available resources I have towards it while it does last.