house edge on new 21+3 table

Hi:

While I saw other variations on this game listed on Wizard of Odds, I didn't see them for the spread pictured here:

Basically side bet is
Straight Flush (30 to 1)
3 of a kind (20 to 1)
Straight (10 to 1)
Flush (5 to 1)


Just from eyeing odds on closest alternate game posted (Wagerworks) I assume, the edge on the above pay table is pretty awful, but wondering if anyone has officially run the numbers.

Thanks!

13.3896100787502 % house edge

I'm getting 13.8%, so yeah - pretty awful.

Edit: too slow. Also, brainfart. I agree with Miplet.

I got Mips number, after finding an error in my initial analysis.....mental note: Always go with Mips!!

Hit rate is 9.68% as well.....what a nasty bet this is. You lose 9 out of 10 hands and are still up against a 13.39% HE. Why do people play these bets, the player experience has got to be awful.

At least the uniform 9-1 paytable only had a 3.24% HE.

Quote: Paradigm

Hit rate is 9.68% as well.....what a nasty bet this is. You lose 9 out of 10 hands and are still up against a 13.39% HE. Why do people play these bets, the player experience has got to be awful.

Well, let's define a term: almost-hit rate. How often do you ALMOST win this bet? 21+3 does odd things to people. The dealer has a 10 showing, your first card is an 8...see if you don't find yourself rooting for a 9 to give you 17 & win the side bet. It's a strange, strange thing.

Quote: miplet

13.3896100787502 % house edge

I should clarify that that is for 6 decks. For 8 decks it's 12.8911633154692 %

Quote: miplet

I should clarify that that is for 6 decks. For 8 decks it's 12.8911633154692 %

Oh, well, in that case . . .

Quote: rdw4potus

Well, let's define a term: almost-hit rate. How often do you ALMOST win this bet? 21+3 does odd things to people. The dealer has a 10 showing, your first card is an 8...see if you don't find yourself rooting for a 9 to give you 17 & win the side bet. It's a strange, strange thing.

That is a good point rdw....I don't know what that almost hit rate is (Mips???) and maybe that is the secret sauce to this bet. But an almost hit rate isn't going to make up for that 13%+ HE actual experience over time.

21+3 has done well when you are talking about the 3%+ HE, but Galaxy is going to ruin this thing with their "Extreme" pay tables. Webb had this bet humming along with the 9-1 uniform pay table. We will see what participation rate is on these new "21+3" pay table propositions. You can shear a sheep many times, but only kill them once!

Quote: Paradigm

21+3 has done well when you are talking about the 3%+ HE, but Galaxy is going to ruin this thing with their "Extreme" pay tables. Webb had this bet humming along with the 9-1 uniform pay table. We will see what participation rate is on these new "21+3" pay table propositions. You can shear a sheep many times, but only kill them once!

So far, I think they have done okay when I glance by on the tables. Obviously just glancing by since I wouldn't want to play at a table like that and get chided for not playing the ridiculous side bet. Upping the flush to 6 to 1 and trips to 25 to 1 still would still give them a 4.92% edge. These new paytables aren't THAT exploitable to counting, right?

Quote: miplet

13.3896100787502 % house edge

Please do not post estimates. The OP deserves an accurate answer.

Quote: rdw4potus

Well, let's define a term: almost-hit rate. How often do you ALMOST win this bet?

Well, first you have to define "almost".

Does a first card 8, with a dealer 10 count as an 'almost'? Or is it an 'almost' only when your second card is a 7 or Jack? What about when your second card is an 8 or 10?

What about when your first card and dealer's card match? Is that an almost already, or only if your second card is close?


I.E. On a slot machine, is an 'almost' when you get a 7 in the first two wheels, but a blank on the third? Or only when the third is showing a 7 above or below the line?


The reason I ask these questions is, the "almost factor" plays a big part in the psychology of compulsive gamblers, and is a big factor in game design.

Slightly off topic, but with the newest slots being push button, having action chairs, big screens, etc.

How long before some kid asks me, why are they called one arm bandits ?

Quote: rdw4potus

Well, let's define a term: almost-hit rate. How often do you ALMOST win this bet? 21+3 does odd things to people. The dealer has a 10 showing, your first card is an 8...see if you don't find yourself rooting for a 9 to give you 17 & win the side bet. It's a strange, strange thing.

Quite a bit, for example, getting two suited cards for the first two cards in a 6 deck game is going to happen:
4*C(78,2)/C(312,2) = 24.76% of the time.

This almost factor plus the table definitely will note wins on the side bet and remind you of it when you don't place makes me avoid 21+3 tables like the plague. Last time I played on one, another guy wanted to buy my action since I was hot on the sidebet, but the dealer wouldn't allow it. I would have been up about 20 units on the bet in 30 minutes. But I do think the original version was a great sidebet for the player that wanted a lot more swing to their blackjack game. This version is a slap in the face due to house edge, but I do like the idea of a graduated payout scale.

Here is a chart of 2-card starting hands that can win and how often they win. (Ace/King and and Ace/Two are included in Gap cards as there is only 1 card to make the straight.)

Event	Combinations	Probability	Straight Flush	Trips	Straight	Flush	Total
Suited Pair	780	1.61%	0%	7.1%	0%	23.23%	30.32%
Unsuited Pair	2808	5.79%	0%	7.1%	0%	0%	7.1%
Suited Connectors	1584	3.26%	3.87%	0%	11.61%	20.65%	36.13%
Unsuited Connectors	4752	9.79%	0%	0%	15.48%	0%	15.48%
Suited Gap	2016	4.16%	1.94%	0%	5.81%	22.58%	30.32%
Unsuited Gap	6048	12.47%	0%	0%	7.74%	0%	7.74%
Suited	7632	15.73%	0%	0%	0%	24.52%	24.52%
Nothing	22896	47.19%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Total	48516	100%	0.21%	0.52%	3.1%	5.84%	9.68%

Wow, over half of your hands will have a sweat? This is probably a big factor toward the popularity of this game.

They have this at the Paris.

Sober I dont touch it - at 4 in the morning on no sleep and lots of "free" booze - it seems like a lot of fun.

I've hit the 30 to 1 a few times - throwing $5 at it every now and then isnt going to kill anybody.

Quote: tringlomane

Wow, over half of your hands will have a sweat? This is probably a big factor toward the popularity of this game.

Agree Tringlomane......that is what I thought when I saw Mips' numbers as well!

But, I would throw out from that "almost win" percentage the unsuited pair and unsuited gaps which add up to 18.26% as they have less of a success rate after your first two cards as you had before the hand started (i.e. less than 10% chance you are going to get there)....so real progress or sweat is only increased in 1 out of 3 hands.....still good and the likely reason for popularity.

But that sweat is the same at a 3%+ HE and a 13%+ HE. The difference is you burn players out with the 13% HE.

Quote: Paradigm

That is a good point rdw....I don't know what that almost hit rate is (Mips???) and maybe that is the secret sauce to this bet. But an almost hit rate isn't going to make up for that 13%+ HE actual experience over time.

You'd think, but I'm not sure I can agree. To want to play that sidebet in the first place the player probably doesn't grasp the math behind the house edge very well. I've seen players that say they never play it toss a nickel out there after watching someone put $50 on it and have $450 pushed across the felt to them a few times. The "Jackpot" effect is strong in this sidebet.

Quote: Paradigm

21+3 has done well when you are talking about the 3%+ HE, but Galaxy is going to ruin this thing with their "Extreme" pay tables. Webb had this bet humming along with the 9-1 uniform pay table. We will see what participation rate is on these new "21+3" pay table propositions. You can shear a sheep many times, but only kill them once!

I deal bj with this sidebet frequently and nearly everytime a straight flush hits it's like a scene out of Idiocracy:

Me: Hey, you win! Straight Flush.

Winning Player: Oh wow, I didn't even see it... does that pay more?

Me (cutting out cheques): Nope, 9 to 1 like all the rest.

Another Player: At (Other Casino) you'd get 30 to 1 for that.

Winning Player: Really?

Me: That's true but you'd have only got 5 to 1 on all those flushes you hit.

Winning Player (looks perplexed): ...

Me: You see the house edge on Harrah's pay table is WAY higher because you hit regular flushes more often.

Winning Player (looks perplexed): ...

Another Player: Yeah, but at (Other Casino) you'd get 30 to 1 for that.

Lather, Rinse, Repeat. They don't get it. That's why I think the new pay table will be successful, it's the same effect* as the original pay table but turned up to 11.

* I've seen people that swear they never play that side bet toss a nickel on it after watching someone else hit it a few times with $50 on it. The allure of watching $450 pushed across the felt for doing nothing but "being smart enough" to place the bet is very strong.

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From the OP though, he points out this side bet is at the Paris party pit (It's at other CET properties too), but the scantily clad dancers in the center helps the view from Gustav's bar when I am slowly playing video poker or bubble craps when getting comped Sierra Nevada. :)

Quote: MonkeyMonkey

Lather, Rinse, Repeat. They don't get it. That's why I think the new pay table will be successful, it's the same effect* as the original pay table but turned up to 11.

* I've seen people that swear they never play that side bet toss a nickel on it after watching someone else hit it a few times with $50 on it. The allure of watching $450 pushed across the felt for doing nothing but "being smart enough" to place the bet is very strong.

I agree especially the more I think about it. Double Double Bonus is the most popular VP variant for the same reason. 2 pair is a push? Who Cares? I win $500 for four aces with a 2,3,4!

Quote: Nostron

They have this at the Paris.

Sober I dont touch it - at 4 in the morning on no sleep and lots of "free" booze - it seems like a lot of fun.

I've hit the 30 to 1 a few times - throwing $5 at it every now and then isnt going to kill anybody.

And that is why CZR loves these games and can also get away with 6/5 BJ.

I wish I could make videos of these exchanges and post them so you guys would know I'm not just making this stuff up.

So, tonight I was dealing bj and the side bet was Royal Match. The player was playing it and at one point IF we had been on a 21+3 table he would have had a straight flush, as it was he only had the simple match and was paid 2.5 to 1. While I'm cutting out his cheques he announces to the table that if we were at (Other Casino) it would have paid 30 to 1. So, I don't know if he actually even understood what the side bet was, but I went on to explain that (Other Casino's) 21+3 has a higher house edge than ours (and that this wasn't 21+3) so over time you'd win more at our place. Then he pointed triumphantly at the layout where to says a Royal Match pays 25 to 1, and says, "No they don't, you guys don't pay as much so the house edge is lower at (Other Casino). And of course, everyone at the table is nodding in agreement because he's some sort of "Blackjack Genius" (that plays crappy side bets...).

I really think it's only a matter of time before 21+3 goes completely over to the new "extreme" pay table.

Ah, tringlomane, if only my eyes (or prescription) were better, slow-playing the VP at Gustav's would definitely be the way to go...

I totally buy the jackpot factor. I mean, I didn't play, partly 'cause I'm a Downtown guy, so the Paris, weekend night, party-pit, table was already high priced for me, and I figured the side was a sucker bet... and *even still*, I thought, "Well, you know, I've been having a pretty lucky day... I could just play four hands, hit the 'jackpot' once, and walk away...."

Frankly, if the scantily clad girl I thought was cutest had been dealing blackjack instead of whatever inscrutable fake-poker variation she was standing at, I probably would have sat my two-martini blissed-out self right down, and would have had a couple-hundred-dollar horror story to tell right now. :-)

Quote: MonkeyMonkey

I wish I could make videos of these exchanges and post them so you guys would know I'm not just making this stuff up.

So, tonight I was dealing bj and the side bet was Royal Match. The player was playing it and at one point IF we had been on a 21+3 table he would have had a straight flush, as it was he only had the simple match and was paid 2.5 to 1. While I'm cutting out his cheques he announces to the table that if we were at (Other Casino) it would have paid 30 to 1. So, I don't know if he actually even understood what the side bet was, but I went on to explain that (Other Casino's) 21+3 has a higher house edge than ours (and that this wasn't 21+3) so over time you'd win more at our place. Then he pointed triumphantly at the layout where to says a Royal Match pays 25 to 1, and says, "No they don't, you guys don't pay as much so the house edge is lower at (Other Casino). And of course, everyone at the table is nodding in agreement because he's some sort of "Blackjack Genius" (that plays crappy side bets...).

I really think it's only a matter of time before 21+3 goes completely over to the new "extreme" pay table.

Monkey, you are on the front lines and have a better sense of the player than I do, so I trust what you say to be an accurate protrayal. Curious to know if you think your description of players transfers from a Strip/Tourist type market (i.e. Paris Party Pit) to a player in a local market (aka Stations type property or Non-Nevada Commercial/Tribal property)?

I still think the longterm life of a BJ side bet with a 13%+ HE and a max payout of 30-1 is short lived. Maybe they have other Extreme pay tables where the house edge falls into a 4-7% range by cranking up the top payouts to 50-1 or the like....those could proliferate as they address a different segment of the side bet player using a proven random number event generator (i.e. the 21+3 payout events)