Roulette System (mathematics/wheel bias based)

Ok for all you math/statistics people, it has likely been tried by countless people over the past 300 years but let me know what you think...

Step 1-Calculate necessary sample size to be 99% confident (1% significance level in statistics) with 38 variables (sections on a roulette wheel).

Step 2-Collect sample size 24 hours a day 7 days a week by using a team of players to record outcomes. If ANYTHING on the wheel changes (placement, cleaning, movement, etc) the sample will be deemed invalid and be discarded.

Step 3-Use statistical software to determine the probability that the roulette wheel is biased towards certain numbers or sections.

Sept 4-If the wheel is deemed not to be biased, move onto another wheel. If you determined the wheel is biased, exploit the wheel!

What do you think? I understand that the sample size will be quite large.

Why don't you try just plunking your five dollars down and seeing what happens?

Just trying to use mathematics to gain an edge over the human/mechanical elements (most vulnerable) of the game.

Quote: bighitter56

What do you think? I understand that the sample size will be quite large.

To the point where collecting statistically significant data on enough wheels to find a biased example would not be likely to occur in the same lifetime as the discovery of a biased wheel. Of course, the location of your hunt might influence the results. The Wiz has recommended continental Europe; I've suggested Caracas and anywhere Argentine outside Buenos Aires or anywhere Brazilian outside of Rio de Janero in the past. Legal casinos in the US having biased wheels isn't something you'll be likely to convince anyone here of without first becoming the Joseph Jagger of Las Vegas, something that's never been done.

Even Dr. Wilson and his bias play crew back in the 1950s got backed off way before they could do any serious damage to the House bottom line. And even way back then he described a primitive mechanical computer that he observed in a Reno casino being using to monitor wheels for bias. They do that with real computers now, more efficiently than AP teams can.

Quote: bighitter56

Just trying to use mathematics to gain an edge over the human/mechanical elements (most vulnerable) of the game.

You seem to be new here. Any mention of betting systems tends to draw contemptuous answers in this forum. It's a bit like proposing a serious effort to design a perpetual motion machine at a physics conference.

This seems like a good place to propose a rule: no mocking of systems posts as long as they're posted in the systems section.

Quote: bighitter56

Just trying to use mathematics to gain an edge over the human/mechanical elements (most vulnerable) of the game.

Your best bet would be the Eudaemonic Pie, a book that dealt with two teams of physicists trying to clock a roulette wheel. One for the challenge and one for the money.

If by 'mechanical elements" you mean the construction of the wheel itself then the 1800s would have been perfect for you. Now the methods of construction, maintenance and surveillance are such that its a total waste of time.

The only vulnerability now other than past posting is the "sector prediction" that can be done since casinos find it profitable to allow betting to continue as the wheel slows down and the little ball is spinning around. If anyone can reliably predict the octet that is a prime candidate, he can get bets down. So speed calculations of the wheel and the ball might work (for awhile) but looking at an actual imbalance in the wheel or a slight variation in slot width is not worth the time invested.

There's a grungy indian casino in my neck of the woods whose 38-spot wheel has pockets caked with crud, which I expect is residue from the smoke in the air and years of dealers' touching it. I've been looking at it for a year, and the crud hasn't been cleaned out yet. A finger streak through the dust on the chrome of the spindle was there for months. There's no electronic readerboard hooked up to it. I'd think that if a wheel could show bias, this would be it. But from the tiny sample I gathered (about 1000 spins over the course of a year) that I've entered into Roulette Xtreme, it's not. Of course, 1000 spins spread over that long of a period is useless, as there are so many other variables that could affect it.

My preference is to just bet the last five numbers spun. If the wheel's got any kind of a bias, this will cut the house edge by a little, and if it doesn't, it's no worse than picking five random numbers. I'm down 3.26% for the last 12 months, instead of the 5.26% I'd expect, but again, that could be just variance. It's been worth the money just to hear the croupiers talk about what numbers are due. My favorite was when one implored the table to bet a section of five numbers opposite the one he just hit, "because it almost always goes to the other side on the next spin". If it hit, "see! I told you". If it was close (within about six numbers on either side), "see! it was almost there!". If it wasn't in this 17-number range, he wouldn't say anything.

I love watching the mathematically challenged.

Quote: Nareed

You seem to be new here. Any mention of betting systems tends to draw contemptuous answers in this forum. It's a bit like proposing a serious effort to design a perpetual motion machine at a physics conference.

This seems like a good place to propose a rule: no mocking of systems posts as long as they're posted in the systems section.

Hold on - he's not proposing a meritless system. His approach seems to make sense. I just don't think it would yield any favorable results. I don't think a wheel would ever be left untinkered with long enough to get the sample size required. Actually, to discover
anything usable would seem to require that the wheel maintained a repeatable bias even after being cleaned, adjusted, whatever.

So what you are proposing is that there exists some pre-ordained 1 out of 38 slot that was the true and proper slot the ball should have entered but as the wheel slowed and the ball slowed it hit more crud than slot and at the last moment continued on to the next crudy slot. How would cruddy slot bias be shown. It just shows displaced randomness.

Quote: FleaStiff

How would cruddy slot bias be shown. It just shows displaced randomness.

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