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Blackjack Martingale
| October 18th, 2011 at 6:59:47 PM permalink | |
| EvenBob Member since: Jul 18, 2010 Threads: 231 Posts: 6361 |
I think you should do it. Do it and do it. Every day in the world, somebody 'discovers' the Martingale. Its your turn in the barrel. One casino owner to another: "It would be so much easier if we could just hit them over the head, steal their money, and throw their bodies in the creek." Al Swearengen, Deadwood |
| October 18th, 2011 at 7:22:50 PM permalink | |
| ncfatcat Member since: Jun 25, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 168 | Mike Martingale said "Another thing I’ve noticed (with gamblers, especially), you always assume the worst." Well wouldn't that be the proof of the pudding? You are assuming what's the best that could happen and ignoring the fact that the worst can and does happen and according to Murphy usually at the worst possible time. Wherever you go - There you are |
| October 18th, 2011 at 8:07:34 PM permalink | |
| SOOPOO Member since: Aug 8, 2010 Threads: 49 Posts: 1304 |
If you are not afraid of losing your initial stake of $5k then go ahead! If your win goal is low enough you are more likely to win than lose. I could never do it. I just couldn't not split 8's or aces, not double an 11, etc... Please report back to the forum your real life success (or failure). |
| October 18th, 2011 at 9:05:36 PM permalink | |
| Doc Member since: Feb 27, 2010 Threads: 20 Posts: 2770 |
I have been out of town and am slowly trying to catch up on this forum's posts. I haven't read this entire thread, but I think it is possible that you have misinterpreted the info that the Wizard offers. Those casinos may indeed offer Blackjack at wager levels from $5 to $5000, but I think it would be unusual to find that much range at a single table. I don't play at the $5000 level, so maybe someone will correct me on this. I think it is more common for a $5 min table to be limited to $200 or $500 max. To have a $5000 max, I suspect there would be something closer to $100 minimum. I suppose you could hop your Martingale over to another table each time you have lost too many straight for the limits at your first table, then move back to the cheap table if you ever win a hand. As for advice, I think you should go for it. Seeing what happens to your $5k should be entertainment for all of us. At least I for one value my entertainment higher than your money. ;-) |
| October 18th, 2011 at 9:23:08 PM permalink | |
| teddys Member since: Nov 14, 2009 Threads: 99 Posts: 2707 | The math is often based on a simulation. The Wizard and others use a simulator to derive many of their blackjack statistics. Your sample size of a few thousand hands is too small. Any simulation of any significant amount of hands is going to show going busted every time. Why insist on blowing your money on a negative expectation proposition? With $10K to blow, you could try some shrewd investment strategies (the same as gambling), or at least learn card counting to give yourself the advantage. Smart gamblers always expect the worst, and are prepared for it. The opposite go to the casino every time expecting to win. "If you can make one heap of all your winnings / And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss / And lose, and start again at your beginnings / And never breathe a word about your loss..." -Rudyard Kipling |
| October 18th, 2011 at 9:37:25 PM permalink | |
| kp Member since: Feb 28, 2011 Threads: 7 Posts: 422 | How often does it happen in your simulation? Is that something you can live with? There's a good argument for number of hands per hour when you're churning a lot to build up your wins. The edge you lose from never spiting or doubling will make you progress through the martingale more often. The key is how often that will push you over the nine loss limit. |
| October 19th, 2011 at 6:52:52 AM permalink | |
| APDave Member since: Aug 29, 2011 Threads: 3 Posts: 64 | There is not a table in the house that stretches from 5 - 5000, I play at the 100 and 200 minimums often enough. You would have to get up from the 5 dollar tables, head to the 25s, and then the 100s to get the max's you would need. Which slows down that whole hands per hour thing you think makes blackjack smart. On top of you'd have to be starting with a 5 dollar bet or the spread goes past what's offered in the casino, cutting down on your dollars per hour severely. And I said in my prior post, I have lost that many hands in a row. More than once in a day. I've also won that many in a row, results will vary. It's not far-fetched, for you to break very early. I've also ran a blackjack simulator over 200k more than once, sadly haven't reproduced that in real life yet, nor am I dumb enough to think it directly translates to my live play. |
| October 19th, 2011 at 7:16:02 AM permalink | |
| kp Member since: Feb 28, 2011 Threads: 7 Posts: 422 | I'm re-posting this story as it seams relevant to this thread. I went out to Vegas one year with a buddy for an audiophile show. It was his first trip to Vegas. He studied on the internet and learned about the Martingale. I told him he was crazy. He ran simulations and said you hardly ever lose. I told him he was crazy. He continued to run simulations; even on the plane he was using a hand held BJ game to further prove his winning approach. I told him he was crazy. At Ellis Island he found a video BJ game where you could bet .25 to 5.00 per credit and 1-100 credits giving him a spread of .25 to $500. I told him he was crazy. He was doing good for a while. Then it happened. .25 lost. .50 lost. 1.00 lost. 2.00 lost. 4.00 lost. 8.00 lost. 16.00 lost. 32.00 lost. 64.00 lost. 128.00 lost. 256.00 lost. Eleven losses in a row and no room left to double. Over $500 lost chasing a $.25 win. I stopped telling him he was crazy; the realization finally hit home. He too went home and never came back. |
| October 19th, 2011 at 10:22:37 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 57 Posts: 1946 |
I'll be at Caesars LV on 12/4. I'll be happy to play your way. But, since your rule changes make the game even worse for the player than regular BJ is, I'll need to play with your money. Please PM me, and we'll set up a way for you to send me your money to use in the test. "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| October 19th, 2011 at 1:27:16 PM permalink | |
| Scotty71 Member since: Mar 5, 2011 Threads: 16 Posts: 200 |
I am sure all of those casino's offer tables from 5-5000 but the problem is finding a table that will offer that spread while keeping you in the same shoe. Most $25 tables I play max out at $2500. I'm half tempted to invite you over to my house for an evening of private play. I find it interesting that you have a lot of knowledgeable smart folks telling you it is a bad idea but yet you want hard data. If you posted the question "should I start smoking"? Would you expect others to start researching the effects of smoking as a challenge to what is already know about the risks. Your idea may work out well for you because you probably will get saved but I promise you if you only have played on a BJ sim, the second you have 2500 in the betting circle your balls will be in your throat!! Why not play regular BS and maybe double or triple your bet after a string of losses. No reason to give up splitting or doubling just because it messes with you clean martingale. when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings |
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