Blackjack Martingale

OK people. In all seriousness, I need you to talk me out of trying a Blackjack Martingale. I’ve read most all of your posts regarding the matter. I understand that the majority of you believe that it can’t work. I understand that. You always have to end up “paying the piper.” I get that.

I emailed Mike and asked him to run a different set of numbers (percentages) based upon my modified basic strategy. I offered to pay him. He respectfully replied that he didn’t have the patience to run the numbers. He also suggested I raise the question on his forum. Hence, this post.

Before I explain it, here are some things you should know:
I have 10K to blow.
Before you reject it off-hand as “this won’t work,” TRY IT.
It requires a table that’s min 5, max 5000.
I’ve played thousands of hands using this method. There’s a free Iphone app. You can use up to 8 decks (I usually use 6). In my research (read that: THOUSANDS of hands), statistically the house wins 47% of the time, I win 43% (remaining 10% is a push). But betting this way, I’m still up. Significantly.

First, let’s talk about the modified basic strategy. It’s the strategy that you all know and love, EXCEPT: Never split. Never double. Never surrender. Never take insurance. Don’t play the way you normally play. Try it like that.

As far as the Martingale goes, it’s like this:

Bet Invested Won Net
Hand #1 15 15 30 15
Hand #2 35 50 70 20
Hand #3 75 125 150 25
Hand #4 150 275 300 25
Hand #5 300 575 600 25
Hand #6 600 1175 1200 25
Hand #7 1200 2375 2400 25
Hand #8 2400 4775 4800 25
Hand #9 4800 9575 9600 25

If you win, go back to Hand 1 and start over. If you lose, move to the next Hand.
For a push, it’s like a “do over.” Just continue like it didn’t happen. Bet the same money.
Willing to lose 5K? You’ve got 8 chances. Willing to lose 10K? You’ve got 9 chances.

In my research, I’ve found that you rarely get up past hand #6. I’ve lost hand #8 a total of 5 times. I’ve never lost hand #9. Yes, I know it will eventually happen.

So, if you’ve got the time, try it. And please don’t reply unless you actually try it. I’m sure there are plenty of Monday Morning Quarterbacks out there. I’ll save you the post and type it here: “You’re an idiot. This won’t work. You’re mathematically challenged.”

Yeah, well. They also thought said world was flat.

I’m looking for useful input here, people. Anyone can anonymously call me names.

Quote: mikemartingale

In my research, I’ve found that you rarely get up past hand #6. I’ve lost hand #8 a total of 5 times. I’ve never lost hand #9. Yes, I know it will eventually happen.

Yup, it will happen. Eventually you have to hit the wall
and lose everything. It might take years. It might happen
tomorrow. Knowing that makes your progression a curiosity,
not a viable way of play.

I can tell you from live table play at least 3 times 2 weekends ago I lost every hand in a shoe, one was +5 to +6 a majority of the way through no less. That means at least 3 times I would have completely annihilated my bankroll in one shoe, playing yoru way. You have to be able to play through those without martingale'ng, which is essentially tilting.

Almost everytime I've played, I've had to weather at least one shoe that would decimate your 9 hand martingale, not to mention it would tables max out well prior to that at any casino, especially anyting willing to let you start at 15 or 25.

Playing 100 a hand you can get 6k max's but that only allows, you to go to the the 7th hand and that's won't net you back the intial bet since you can't go to 6400. 500s will net you a higher max but again won't get you to 9 hands. Casino's are wise enough not to let someone endlessly Martingale. Computer simulations will differ very much from live play.

You can give it a shot, but it will break you in time. Variance can net you a winning trip or two, but I find progressiving beyond the 3rd hand to be somewhat suicidal bankroll wise.

Good luck!

How can you expect anyone on this site to agree with you that not splitting aces is a good idea? C'mon man.

if youre going to martingale, the player bet in baccarat is probably the best way to go.

I also have never seen a min $5/max $5k table. Make sure they exist. Good luck, too.

I won $15 playing Texas Hold'em Bonus in Atlantic City a week ago. I won the first seven hands and then lost the next six ( with a push in there somewhere ). I seem to notice when things get streaky so I left before I could lose the seventh hand in a row. Had I been playing a Martingale, I would have been betting over 78 grand just to win $5.

Not fun!

You have a pair of 8's. The dealer has a 7 showing? You advocate not splitting?

Do you realize how lucky you have been? FIVE times you've been to the brink... and FIVE times you won even though you yourself admit your horrible strategy only wins 43% of the time.

Let's say you would have lost 3 of those five as would be the modal result.... would you even be posing this question....?

Quote: mikemartingale

Before I explain it, here are some things you should know:
I have 10K to blow.

I think you can find a casino to accommodate this behavior. I have to imagine your modified rules really send the house edge soaring. I could see only doubling only on 10 & 11 vs 6 or less but why never? I don't recall seeing any 5-5000 tables. I personally would rather get super aggressive at craps where the payoffs on the 4&10 are 2 to 1 before the commish.

Quote: mikemartingale

I have 10K to blow.

I can double this in the currency markets in 6 months but it probably won't be as fun as losing it in half the time with your martingale. Must be nice.