WatchMeWin's craps betting system

Quote: WatchMeWin

if blue jay is out there listening.... how many live craps sessions would it take for you to put your money up ? Meaning, If I told you I would consistantly win in real life craps (we will talk winning %'s later), how many actual live craps sessions in a casino would be enough to satisfy your doubt that someone can consistantly win? 10? 20? 50? 100? 200? 1000? 200,000? I would go up to 20x. Any amount after that would take to long.

WatchMeWin, given that you didn't bother to define *any* of your terms (especially "consistently win" and "session"), your question is ridiculous and impossible to answer. I also have no idea what you mean by "I would go up to 20x". 20x of what? Your starting bankroll? If so, then what do you need my challenge for? Just take $1500 to a casino and 20x it to $30,000.

In any event, I went ahead and added the terms for a Live Betting System Challenge to my betting system challenge page. Here are the new rules as they now stand, though since they're brand new I might wind up tweaking them.

Quote:

Live Betting System Challenge
Challenge is the same as the computer-simulated challenge, except:

(1) It takes place in a Vegas (or other U.S.) casino, with you and me (or my representative) present.

(2) It's an even-money bet between you and me (not 10-1 odds), for any amount between $1000 to $30,000, with a minimum of $50 per hour of play (including time you spend at the table not betting while waiting for "streaks" or other conditions).

(3) You will choose the number of rounds to wager on before we begin (1000 to 10,000 rounds).

(4) All play must be completed within one month.

(5) Starting bankroll is half the number of total rounds, in dollars. (e.g., a 1000-round challenge means a starting bankroll of $500.)

(6) You win if you achieve a profit of at least $15 for every 50 rounds, on average (roughly equivalent to $15 per hour of play).

Basically, someone wins if they can win at least about $15 an hour starting with at least $500. This is generous, since every system seller I'm aware of claims that their customers win lots more and need less starting capital (if a starting bankroll is even mentioned at all).

Incidentally, the chances of winning this challenge over 1000 rounds by flat-betting the pass line in craps is 1.1%.

How do these people end up here and not expect to be told they are;

a) deluded
b) liars
c) a little bit of (a) and (b)

Quote: WizardofEngland

How do these people end up here and not expect to be told they are;

d) frauds

The new rules intuitively sound beatable. How do you define "rounds to wager on"? And you're basically saying that if I start with $500 and end with $800, I've beaten the challenge?

Quote: MathExtremist

That intuitively sounds beatable. How do you define "rounds to wager on"?

As it says in the rules, a round is an event where any bet is resolved. The first line above says that the live challenge is the same as the computer-simulated challenge, with some mods, and there's a link straight back to the challenge page in my post.

Quote: MathExtremist

And you're basically saying that if I start with $500 and end with $800, I've beaten the challenge?

Absolutely not. The actual rules I posted are much more specific.

Does it need to be at least +15 for every sequence of 50 rolls, or just averaging that win rate overall?

Yet again, clearly spelled out in the rules.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Yet again, clearly spelled out in the rules.

Actually, it's not clear to me either. The word on average doesn't make what you mean clear, and I also had the same question as ME when reading them.

Here's what it says: "You win if you achieve a profit of at least $15 for every 50 rounds, on average.

If it's not exceptionally clear by saying "on average" that I mean "on average", then how exactly do you suggest I word the sentence to make it so?

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Here's what it says: "You win if you achieve a profit of at least $15 for every 50 rounds, on average.

If it's not exceptionally clear by saying "on average" that I mean "on average", then how exactly do you suggest I word the sentence to make it so?

do you mean to say $15 for every $50 ?