Craps Don't Pass then Put

I know that the House has an edge on this system... Opinions, though.

Table limits:
5 minimum
10,000 maximum
100X odds

Bet 505$ Don't Pass

Come out:

2,3 = win 505
7,11 = lose 505
12 = push

6/8 ... then Put the 6/8 5 flat with 500 odds.. 7 out.. break even. 6/8 profit 100$
5/9 ... then Put the 5/9 .. 7 out ... break even. 5/9 profit 250$
4/10 .. then Put the 4/10 .. 7 out. break even. 4/10 profit 500$
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8/36 Come Outs I'll get whacked for 505.
3/36 Come Outs I'll get lucky and win 505 off the bat
1/36 Come Outs We play again.
10/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 100
8/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 250
4/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

Quote: minnesotajoe

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8/36 Come Outs I'll get whacked for 505.
3/36 Come Outs I'll get lucky and win 505 off the bat
1/36 Come Outs We play again.
10/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 100
8/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 250
4/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

I only buy in for $500. Puts me on the rail watching.
My opinion, I would still rather have more of my money on the odds part of the bet.
What kind of buy-in and win goals would one use?
corrections:
6/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

For those interested in the house edge.
5/36 #6 Come Outs freerolling towards 100 THEN only 5/11 profit $100
5/36 #8 Come Outs freerolling towards 100 THEN only 5/11 profit $100
4/36 #5 Come Outs freerolling towards 250 THEN only 4/10 profit $250
4/36 #9 Come Outs freerolling towards 250 THEN only 4/10 profit $250
3/36 #4 Come Outs freerolling towards 500 THEN only 3/9 profit $500
3/36 #10 Come Outs freerolling towards 500 THEN only 3/9 profit $500
So,
Let us look at a 1980 table. Just take the probabilities and multiply them by 55 so we only deal with integers.

Event	ways		net	wagers	handle
comeout win	165	505	83325	505	83325
comeout loss	440	-505	-222200	505	222200
push	55	0	0	505	27775
win on 6	125	100	12500	1010	126250
push on 6	150	0	0	1010	151500
win on 8	125	100	12500	1010	126250
push on 8	150	0	0	1010	151500
win on 5	88	250	22000	1010	88880
push on 5	132	0	0	1010	133320
win on 9	88	250	22000	1010	88880
push on 9	132	0	0	1010	133320
win on 4	55	500	27500	1010	55550
push on 4	110	0	0	1010	111100
win on 10	55	500	27500	1010	55550
push on 10	110	0	0	1010	111100
total	1980		-14875	handle	1666500
				HA-pushes	-0.008925893
				handle	1638725
				HA-no pushes	-0.009077179

One would only need 60 more wins with an average profit of $250 to come out ahead.
still just under 1% HA.

WinCraps has a free "risk of ruin" auto-bet file you can download from the website and run many simulations. You can change the deafult pass line bet to any type of bet.
a 1K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 26% chance to triple a bankroll ,about a 43% chance to double a bankroll , 60% to win 50% of your bankroll and 68% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($250).

a 2K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 23% chance to triple a bankroll, about a 41% chance to double a bankroll , 54% to win 50% of your bankroll and 75% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($500).

a 5K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 14% chance to triple a bankroll, about a 30% chance to double a bankroll , 40% to win 50% of your bankroll and 70% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($1250).

a 10K bankroll, 1000 sessions. one can expect, before ruin, about a 4% chance to triple a bankroll, about a 20% chance to double a bankroll , 35% to win 50% of your bankroll and 62% chance to win 25% of your bankroll ($2500).

overall results were action*edge

Thank you so much.

My goal would be to make one profit then leave. Whether I just profit 100$ on the 6 or 8 or get lucky to see a 2 on the Come out... leave after a net profit.

Quote: minnesotajoe

Thank you so much.

My goal would be to make one profit then leave. Whether I just profit 100$ on the 6 or 8 or get lucky to see a 2 on the Come out... leave after a net profit.

You are welcome.
I re-ran a few sims just to win $100.
Win a min $100:
1k bank- 70%
2k bank- 82%
5k- bank- 90%
10k bank- 95%
(10k bank- 92% to win $200)

It would be fun to watch you play!

I hope you are prepared to be down $1010 right off the hop a lot of times.

Quote: minnesotajoe

I know that the House has an edge on this system... Opinions, though.

Table limits:
5 minimum
10,000 maximum
100X odds

Bet 505$ Don't Pass

Come out:

2,3 = win 505
7,11 = lose 505
12 = push

6/8 ... then Put the 6/8 5 flat with 500 odds.. 7 out.. break even. 6/8 profit 100$
5/9 ... then Put the 5/9 .. 7 out ... break even. 5/9 profit 250$
4/10 .. then Put the 4/10 .. 7 out. break even. 4/10 profit 500$
-----
8/36 Come Outs I'll get whacked for 505.
3/36 Come Outs I'll get lucky and win 505 off the bat
1/36 Come Outs We play again.
10/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 100
8/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 250
4/36 Come Outs freerolling towards 500

6/36 freerolling towards 500, not 4/36

Quote: appistappis

I hope you are prepared to be down $1010 right off the hop a lot of times.

Yes a $1010 bank can evaporate very quickly.
8/36^2= 4.938271% about 1 in 20 back to back come out rolls.

The more come out rolls, the number and size of the pass line win streaks increase.
2 natural pass line winners in a row
come out rolls / prob
18 / 51.961582%
27 / 67.300052%
55 / 90.117610%

71 / 95.012314% at least 1 run of 2 or more in a row
~79.51% at least 2 runs of 2 or more in a row
~53.45% at least 3 runs of 2 or more in a row

still would be fun to watch as long as it was not my $$$ at risk!

as a craps dealer for the last quarter century i cannot tell you how many winners using systems i have seen over the years......Oh wait, yes I can........none.

haha I'll try it for 105 Don't Pass then 5 and 100

Just to say I did it

I have done a similar system, to milk comp really...It was stupid...
I did:
$30 Don't Come on the roll AFTER the come-out point had been established (99% of the time they don't INSTANTLY 7-out)
$30 Place or Buy on that particular number (Casino I go to allows $1 juice on win only for a $30 buy)
Place 6/8 for $30 nets me a $6 win
Buy 5/9 for $30 nets me a $14 win ($15 - $1 juice)
Buy 4/10 for $30 nets me a $29 win ($30 - $1 juice)
They rated me for a $75 action, which will give me $15 per hour in comp. I'd usually be down about $100 after 5 hours, but have $75 in comps; not to mention the freebies assosciated with decent action (RFB; considering I'd do this every friday/saturday night for 5 hours each night)