Nice Betting system for BJ

Hello everybody,
I'm looking for a nice betting system for BJ. I know betting systems don't do any better than flat betting in the long run, but fur sure a betting system can be more fun en give some more exciting moments.

First of all, I explain the rules in Holland Casino. It's very standaard:
Dealers stands on S17
BJ plays 3:2
No hole card (player loses full bet against a dealers BJ)
DAS is allowed
Player can split as many times as he want
Player can not hit splitted aces
Player is allowed to re-split aces
Surrender is NOT allowed
777 pays 2:1 (I wonder if I should change my splitting strategy here, for example 77 against a dealers 2,3 or 7.. should I split or hit?)
In Holland Casino they use a 6-deck and shuffle machine, card counting is not possible!! House edge is around 0,6%.

Yesterday I played a paroli system of 3 bets (1-2-4). I started with 1 unit. After a win 2 units, after the 2nd win 4 units and than start over with 1 unit. So a winning streak of 3 gives me 7 units. Always bet 1 unit after a loss.
I had some good winning streaks but after 2 hours of play I lost 50!!!! units. There were moments I have to wait very!! long for a winning streak of 3.

So I'm looking for a decent system that gives me more fun, and can let me play longer than 2 hours (I guess 50 units is more than enough when playing basic strategy). Does someone have any ideas?
I'm not looking for Martingale systems or stuff like that. Paroli seemes to be nice but sucked yesterday. And I guess 1-3-2-4 or 1-3-2-6 paroli is fun for Baccarat but not for BJ because winning streaks of 4 do not happen that often.

Any ideas, or do you people just flat bet?

Quote: Ramond

So I'm looking for a decent system that gives me more fun, and can let me play longer than 2 hours (I guess 50 units is more than enough when playing basic strategy). Does someone have any ideas?


Any ideas, or do you people just flat bet?

I can't define what will give you more fun, but flat betting the minimum will give you the greatest chance of staying at the table for 'longer than 2 hours'.

All betting systems suck. Parlay and variations of it suck less than Martingale/D'Alembert/etc. Nonetheless, unless you learn to count, you're best off flat-betting. An exception is if you want maximum chance at a target win amount, in which case you should bet a large bankroll fraction (1/4).

of course you can try the old fashion method
Bet 1 unit until you win 2 times then double your bet then start over

1-2-4 means you only take a profit if you a 3 streak. Those are relatively rare in Blackjack, and also gives you a problem if you hit a double/split hand on the 4 unit bet (problem? well, I mean more variance).

Your average bet will around the 2 unit mark (probably just under).

I like to use a 2-3-4-5 bet increase (or even 3-4-5-6). Similar idea to ride a streak, but a two-streak means your are up a unit after the third bet (of course a 2-2-2-2 system a 2 streak means you are 2 units after the third bet... :), with some chance of following a lucky run. But with any increase after a win or loss system, your average bet is higher, which means you will tend to play a shorter period of time.

Quote: thecesspit

1-2-4 means you only take a profit if you a 3 streak.

Yes, an excellent point to remember.
It is a better play to lock up profits during a win streak, by slowly increasing your wagers as a streak continues.

Quote: thecesspit

Those are relatively rare in Blackjack, and also gives you a problem if you hit a double/split hand on the 4 unit bet (problem? well, I mean more variance).

It is also true that a higher winning probability, like Banker in Baccarat, has a higher probability of winning streaks than in BJ.
I disagree that 3 wins in a row are "relatively rare".

The table below shows the probability and average number of streaks of 3 or more for BJ. (47.5% win rate)

hands	at least 1 streak of 3 in a row or more	avg # runs of 3 or more
3	10.72%	0.113
5	21.97%	0.225
10	45.79%	0.506
20	73.75%	1.069
30	87.28%	1.632
40	93.84%	2.194
50	97.02%	2.757
60	98.56%	3.320
70	99.30%	3.882
80	99.66%	4.445
90	99.84%	5.008
100	99.92%	5.570

streak calculator can be found HERE


A problem with win streaks is the "wait time" or how many trials before the next occurrence or hit.
BJ 3 in a row mean recurrence time is:
15.8 hands
standard deviation of 13.77, quite high for an average of close to 16.
I have run simulations showing a 10% chance of just 1 run of 3 or more wins could be at least 110 hands or higher. It is the large variance that can make streaks seem to be a rare event in a small number of trials.

This also points out the importance in locking up profits, as "thecesspit" has shown in his betting pattern, since "waiting" and betting for a streak can produce it's own long losing streak.

Quote: thecesspit

Your average bet will around the 2 unit mark (probably just under).

I like to use a 2-3-4-5 bet increase (or even 3-4-5-6). Similar idea to ride a streak, but a two-streak means your are up a unit after the third bet (of course a 2-2-2-2 system a 2 streak means you are 2 units after the third bet... :), with some chance of following a lucky run. But with any increase after a win or loss system, your average bet is higher, which means you will tend to play a shorter period of time.

I also agree to slow down the positive progression. Do not just use a parlay system. Lock up profits during a win streak.

Quote: Ramond

I'm not looking for Martingale systems or stuff like that. Paroli seemes to be nice but sucked yesterday. And I guess 1-3-2-4 or 1-3-2-6 paroli is fun for Baccarat but not for BJ because winning streaks of 4 do not happen that often.

Comparing win streaks of 4 or more in a row.
It is true that Baccarat Banker win streaks happen more than BJ win streaks.

BJ hands	at least 1 streak of 4 in a row or more	Bac Banker hands	at least 1 streak of 4 in a row or more
4	5.09%	4	6.60%
5	7.76%	5	9.86%
10	20.78%	10	25.60%
20	41.71%	20	49.50%
30	57.11%	30	65.73%
40	68.44%	40	76.74%
50	76.78%	50	84.21%
60	82.92%	60	89.29%
70	87.43%	70	92.73%
80	90.75%	80	95.06%
90	93.20%	90	96.65%
100	94.99%	100	97.73%

BJ
mean wait time 35.51 hands
SD 32.58

BACCARAT
mean wait time 28.68 hands
SD 25.78

I don't mind double down or split when I bet 4 units.. but indeed the waiting time for winning 3 hands in a row is very long.
But also when you use a 2-3-4-5 progression you only win BIG when you have 4 winnings in a row.

What about a 1-3-3-3... let it ride system. Keep playing 3 units until you lose?

I'm just wondering what betting system other people use. And, really.. card counting is NOT possible in Holland because of the shuffle machine (shuffle after each round).

Betting the table minimum flat is what I always did. Mostly I played until I have +5 or +10 units. That happens really often but sometimes I really have a bad day and I start losing from the beginning. With -20 of -30 units down flat betting won't help anymore to get me back.

Quote: Ramond

I don't mind double down or split when I bet 4 units.. but indeed the waiting time for winning 3 hands in a row is very long.
But also when you use a 2-3-4-5 progression you only win BIG when you have 4 winnings in a row.

What about a 1-3-3-3... let it ride system. Keep playing 3 units until you lose?

I'm just wondering what betting system other people use. And, really.. card counting is NOT possible in Holland because of the shuffle machine (shuffle after each round).

Betting the table minimum flat is what I always did. Mostly I played until I have +5 or +10 units. That happens really often but sometimes I really have a bad day and I start losing from the beginning. With -20 of -30 units down flat betting won't help anymore to get me back.

Since streaks of 1 and 2 are more common than streaks of 3 or more at BJ, I will normally play for 2 in a row. I normally increase my bet after 2 wins in a row by a percentage of my unit bet.
When my units are $10, I will up my bet after a win to $12 or $14.
That way a win and a loss will produce a $2 or $4 loss instead of a $10 loss.
Unit bets are $25, I will increase my next bet to $36 etc.

A big key to winning is not only how much you win when you do win but how much you lose when do do lose.
Still a hard thing to do is to take advantage of the win streaks that do happen. The problem I see is that the losing streaks are mostly longer and there are more of them.
Flat betting still can have it's own thrills, that is why it is called gambling.

Check out some of the Wizard's thoughts and ideas on betting systems HERE

It might be a better idea to do some progression like this: 1-3-2-2-2 (until you lose and then start betting 1 unit again).
A streak of 2 winnings gives a better profit then flat betting. The only worse thing is a choppy session/losing the 2nd bet after a win.

But I guess something like 1-3-2-2-2-2-2..... is less agressive then 1-2-4 or 1-3-2-6 (or 1-3-2-4) and still puts you out a bit more in front then flat betting.

I know that in the end this system is not better/worse then flat betting but it can be more fun and you don't have to wait 'till you win 3 rounds in a row.

The average bet in 1-3-2-2-2 is around 2 (or a bit below) I guess so I think 50 units could be risky when I want to play all night.

How about this idea?