troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
• Posts: 37
April 30th, 2017 at 11:42:12 AM permalink
I play Pai gow pretty often as my game of choice. Today the guy two seats to the left of me had a losing streak which I have not seen before. Excluding pushes (6) he lost 9 hands in a row so in theory not a single win in 15 hands. Good news is he was only betting \$20 a hand so was stuck for \$200 (bet 40 last hand)

Got me wondering and I knew someone here would know the math as to the formula for this and the math behind it?

I have seen people lose 5 hands (not counting pushes before) that I remember but never more than that.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 489
April 30th, 2017 at 1:23:23 PM permalink
If you play reasonably well, the odds of losing any given Pai Gow Poker hand is about 32.6% and the probability of pushing is about 36%. You will win 31.4% of the time.

The odds of NOT winning any of 15 consecutive hands is about 0.0035 or about 1 in 285. Of course, that doesn't quite capture what happened, because even when you don't win in 15 consecutive hands we would have expected fewer than 9 losses.
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010