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Quote: GivemethemoneyI hesitated starting this thread. I knew that I would likely get flamed and have a ton of people coming out of the wood work calling me a liar and saying the games I play are unbeatable etc... Etc... Etc...
I didn't read your whole post. But you're going to be right. Flaming people for systems that have no solid mathematical basis is probably this forum's 2nd favorite activity behind arguing the election. Have fun reading the responses.
And "Don't Tip"? I bet the employees really love that one. If you are able to win over $100k+ per year on these games, you can't afford to tip??
Quote: GivemethemoneyI hesitated starting this thread. I knew that I would likely get flamed and have a ton of people coming out of the wood work calling me a liar and saying the games I play are unbeatable etc... Etc... Etc...
So you can chose to believe me or not. Frankly I don't care as I have nothing to gain from this other then to try to help people who like myself years ago was getting brutalized by the casinos and losing everything. I will outline exactly the method of which I play and how I win, after telling you my story of how I came to win.
First and foremost, I play only two games. Craps and Bacarrat. Both are negative expectation games, expected to guarantee a loss by the player over time.
HI GMTM,
Welcome to the forum.
I'm pleased to hear that you have had, and continue to have, a lot of good luck.
I'm not calling you a liar. If you say you won, I believe you. You described how you play. I believe that's true too.
I now wish you luck for the future, because your system of money management is pretty much unrelated to your good luck. It will do nothing to sustain your winning and as advice for any new players, it will do nothing to help them and potentially an awful lot to destroy them.
I know what it feels like to have significant good luck and to feel the indestructable winner. I later learned how to lose.... Just more of the same but without the luck.
You shouldn't be wasting your time here. You have something that according to you has the ability to make money 24/7 365 around the world. You should be upping your bets using the same system and making multiple times the amount per year.Quote: GivemethemoneyThanks for the candid feedback. Could be luck, an incredible amount of it. If it is, I hope it continues. I am skeptical that it is though as I'm in the casino literally for hours just about every single day and have been for years now. My friend plays the same way as I do. We met at the casino, were losing our asses together and instituted allot of the principles we play by together. He plays dice exclusively, I play bac almost exclusively. I only play dice now to play with him. We both have been winning every year. Both of us playing as often as we do, winning as consistent as we do, is hard for me to chalk up as good luck. We tell everyone there we are getting destroyed and losing our asses because we dont want people asking us for money, to get them food, etc... I get asked multiple times a day and it's annoying.
I want you all to just think to yourself if you were ever up during your normal game play and if so how much on average. And if you keep records of those things, try to Work out the amount you would be up if you quit at or near that average "Up" point and instituted a stop loss 3-4 times that "Up" point. Does not require believing me to work those numbers out. You can all do them yourselves. That alone is 75-80% of my system. Just pure money management and power of pressure. Start tracking that for yourselves if you haven't already and I'm betting a good majority of you will see positive numbers over long periods of time in your logs. Don't believe me, please if any of you have this data, please post it. Dont try my system, just keep good records during the course of your normal game play and see if you would be in the profit or not.
I would stop posting immediately before the wrong people get involved. They can track your IP then hire investigators to watch and follow you. You wouldn't want to get added to Griffin or whatever. Your life could even be in danger.
Rhetorical question?Quote: WinoAre these posts even real?
Yes, you are incorrect. More than 99% of the gaming outcomes in casinos worldwide are produced by software implementations of pseudorandom number generators. For example, nearly every video slot machine on the planet uses a PRNG, and so does nearly every online casino.Quote: GivemethemoneyI know that there is no mathematical function or subroutine that can accurately produce "random". So how are these simulators (note that I have not examined any of the source code for these programs) producing "random" dice rolls and such. This result is pseudo-random as it uses the same seed number or algorithm as a basis to make pattern based calculations of "random". So no such method exists in calculating "random" programmatically or mathematically meaning any simulation of the game of craps is false. Am I incorrect in that belief?
Moreover, PRNG algorithms have been "good enough" for producing gambling outcomes for at least 30 years. You can generate dice roll data using physical cubes or with a PRNG and, statistically, you'll never be able to tell the difference. Therefore, the results of a craps system simulation are equally valid when using physical dice vs. a correct PRNG implementation.
I wouldn't even know what to search for, but there's been posts fairly similar to yours.Quote: GivemethemoneyThese posts are very real. I went from having nothing in the bank, all my credit cards maxed out, refinancing my place so I could gamble away all the equity, loans used exclusively for gambling, and even loans against my 401k to getting it all back in 5 years. I had dug a hole I never thought I could get out of. It's no joke. I was suffering. I was one of many in this situation and it was the most unbearable depression I've ever faced. I only want help others that are in the same position I was in. Not trying to get non-gamblers to see this thread and think they are going to retire living the good life off a simple system. They will likely fail cause I don't believe many posses the discipline to overcome gamblers psycology until they have lost everything and can't afford to lose anymore. This thread is meant for those gamblers pissing everything away looking for a way out. This system is no doubt better than the one they are using that has caused them to already lose everything and worth investigating.
-EV Gambling should be viewed as entertainment only. Encouraging "those gamblers pissing everything away looking for a way out" to do anything other STOP is very irresponsible of you. You have probably been the luckiest man in the world during the last 5 years it just happen to coincide with your system. Perhaps tomorrow you'll start losing for the next five years. Considering it took you losing 500k, your wife, depression, debit and whatever else you lost or destroyed, it's really not all that impressive. I bet you would've been much, much better off had you just stopped after losing 10k or less. You said it yourself. "They will likely fail cause I don't believe many posses the discipline to overcome gamblers psycology until they have lost everything and can't afford to lose anymore." Your story will not help ANYONE WHATSOEVER. You're probably having the opposite effect on people.
Quote: GivemethemoneyThese posts are very real. I went from having nothing in the bank, all my credit cards maxed out, refinancing my place so I could gamble away all the equity, loans used exclusively for gambling, and even loans against my 401k to getting it all back in 5 years. I had dug a hole I never thought I could get out of. It's no joke. I was suffering. I was one of many in this situation and it was the most unbearable depression I've ever faced. I only want help others that are in the same position I was in. Not trying to get non-gamblers to see this thread and think they are going to retire living the good life off a simple system. They will likely fail cause I don't believe many posses the discipline to overcome gamblers psycology until they have lost everything and can't afford to lose anymore. This thread is meant for those gamblers pissing everything away looking for a way out. This system is no doubt better then the one they are using that has caused them to already lose everything and worth investigating.
OK GMTM,
Rules here tell me that I may not, under any circumstances reply in a way that is likely to offend you. So I'll throw a few questions at you...
Quote: GivemethemoneyThese posts are very real. I went from having nothing in the bank, all my credit cards maxed out, refinancing my place so I could gamble away all the equity, loans used exclusively for gambling, and even loans against my 401k
Do you concur that you were in a very deep hole financially?
Do you believe that raising all that debt to gamble with was 1) Wise, 2) Unwise, 3)Really rather stupid? 4)Stupid, but luckily you got away with it, in which case was it stupid?
Quote: GivemethemoneyI only want help others that are in the same position I was in.
And are you doing that by advising that they max out their credit and go all out, sh1t or bust to win back their losses?
Yeah. Sure. sounds like a foolproof plan!
Are you further advising that with your money management techniques, they will prosper by doing so?
Yeah. Sure. What could possibly go wrong. After all, you proved it can work.
I assert that your advice is dangerous and unwise to the highest level. Maybe even maliciously dangerous.
I assert that anyone taking your advice is very, very unwise, bordering on the certifiably stupid.
Finally, I assert that your being here and posting this thread is principally to stir up a hornets nest, stir up trouble. I'm not allowed to call you a troll. Therefore, I will block you and cease responding to you before I get admonished by the moderators.
Goodbye gmtm. I've encountered posts of this nature before. I know how this will pan out.
I DFTT
I find it both annoying and telling that you deleted your post.
Rather than experience criticism you chose to delete it, with an apology.
An apology?
For what?
I suggest you seriously consider not posting here again if as it seems you are too thin-skinned to absorb any criticism.
Who cares what others think?
It's your ideas I wanted to read, and you took them with you when you slipped out under the tent.
Bad show.
Nobody has ruined anything. While I'm happy you got lucky, you are making a mistake if you believe that changing your mental attitude has anything to do with getting lucky or getting "destroyed." The cards or dice don't know about which synapses are firing in your head. Unless you're telekinetic, which you aren't, your thought patterns and the dice or card outcomes are totally unrelated.Quote: GivemethemoneyI am deleting this thread. I have something that works for me and has recovered all my losses but every single reply since has stated that my post is dangerous and harmful to others by installing hope in gambling where there shouldn't be so I will respect the popular opinion and tear down the post. Sucks as those getting destroyed will not quit, they will continue getting destroyed. They have a shot of they try something different like what I'm suggesting but oh well, others have ruined that.
If you're an engineer with experience at Google, Facebook, and Cisco, you should already know that.
Know your limits, play within them, and above all, don't believe that wishing real hard will make you a winner.
Oh, but I do understand. I understand that you believe your adjusted mental discipline has overcome what you call "gambler's psycology." You believe it's made you a winner and you believe it can make other people winners too.Quote: GivemethemoneyNot sure where you picked up anything in any if my replies that indicated attitude or synapses of the brain effect outcome of a roll of the dice or anything similar to that. Your clearly confused and need to reread my statements. arting to get the feeling that there are people on here with their finger so close to the Flame trigger they hit it before they even read or try to understand a person's post. Funny also how quick to discount something you don't understand.
It's not true, but it's precisely what you wrote.
Quote: GivemethemoneyFunny also how quick to discount something you don't understand.
I didn't get a chance to read your original post. But I just wanted to point out that one of the individuals you are arguing with about this is a VERY high lever gaming mathematician. I'm sure he very clearly understands what you have proposed....
Again no comment whatsoever on the betting system you proposed, but what to stop you from swallowing your entire foot in one sitting.
Congrats on accurately repeating the quoted phrase, exactly as it was in the original that the OP decided to zap. I didn't really bother to make heads or tails of whatever the gist of it was supposed to be, other than generally announcing "I have conjured the true formula! I'm a magical winner, abra-kadabra!" Yawn. Always a surplus of those. But in the middle of it "psycology" stuck out to me. Literally, that would probably have to be defined as "the rigorous scientific study of the Alfred Hitchcock movie." At least I'd prefer to hope so, rather than me just being a nit about a single ten-cent letter (not even an expensive vowel). And applied to gambling joints; how nice. That sounds like it could have lots of festive potential for the holiday. More so than the usual. And hey, you know it is the closest celebration on the calendar to April 1st in spirit, Buzz.Quote: MathExtremist...<SNIP>...
...what you call "gambler's psycology." You believe...
...<SNIP>...
And I tried being an advantage player by the way while I was in my destruction years counting BJ for a period of time. I lost my ass doing so. Attempted KO system, wonging in and out, even got banned from a casino I wasnt even winning winning at. I read many systems on counting and I had the count down cold. Very simple to do but it just didn't bear fruit even though the edge was in my favor for my elevated betting ramp bets while count was positive. It worked out against me.about as often as it worked out in my favor except when it worked against me, I lost about 10 times more then when it worked out in my favor. Did everything the system called for including bringing 100 times minimum bet to avoid ROR. I still busted out twice in 8 months with that advantage. My point is the house edge is a very strong statistic that casinos can bank on but A player can still lose with the edge in their favor and they can still win with the edge against them. I know allot of people losing their asses counting BJ.
Quote: GivemethemoneyVery simple stuff they all know to be true. So why the heck wouldn't I offer up something that's working for me and could help people at least not dump everything at the casino but either minimize their loss or (God forbid) nook a few wins and even possibly end up in the positive like my friend and I were able to do. Some people really need to hear this stuff. They don't have to piss everything away. They can at least reduce what they are losing to something manageable.
Many of us are grateful that you are sharing this information. Some of us would even be willing to pay quite a bit to learn more details that can help us win money at casinos.
Sure it does, unless you have a different definition of "long run" than the casinos do. But we're not at the point where it even makes sense to discuss mathematics, because the rest of your post basically says "I tried to play +EV games, I couldn't win, then I got lucky playing -EV games. Therefore -EV games are better."Quote: GivemethemoneyOk, I understand what your saying now. Let me ask you a question. Does a 1.06% house edge guarantee you will lose every day you go or increase the probability that you will lose? Does it also guarantee that you will lose in the long run as well? No it does not.
That's equivalent to saying "I invested in Google stock and it went down one day, then I invested in a company that sells mittens in Hawaii and that stock went up one day. Therefore, the Hawaiian mitten company is a better investment than Google."
The admonition commonly found in stock prospectuses is even more accurate for casino games:
"Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns."
I run into similar situations with folks in my field all the time. I work in high tech and the egos in this industry run very high. I'm assuming the same holds true in the field of mathematics.
Quote: GivemethemoneyNot what I was saying at all. I was making the point that playing against a house edge does not guarantee a loss. It increases the probability of a loss. You twist that into me making a recommendation to play -EV games over +EV games which is false. You have an inability to at least acknowledge that it is possible (improbable but possible) to win at which proves to me your desire to be correct outweighs your desire to be accurate.
I run into similar situations with folks in my field all the time. I work in high tech and the egos in this industry run very high. I'm assuming the same holds true in the field of mathematics.
It is so almost impossible to win in the long run when playing regularly at a casino that in over 6 years I never saw one person come out ahead, without hitting a progressive, in any one year. Never even 1 person. Now I will admit that it was Blackjack and Carnival Games only, with Blackjack being at a 0.70 HE. But my experience and conversations with many other Table Games people is that you are either not playing regularly, therefor luck has been on your side for the short term, or you don't keep accurate statistics.
ZCore13
But somehow I suspect your system and those touted by John Patrick might be cut from the same cloth.
Discipline, cautious play, accept small wins and never have more than a small loss (see: discipline).
Which is fine.
But what does the Big Cheese himself have to say on the subject?
Like they say, "Ask the man who knows."
Steve Wynn on winning
Quote: MathExtremistSure it does, unless you have a different definition of "long run" than the casinos do. But we're not at the point where it even makes sense to discuss mathematics, because the rest of your post basically says "I tried to play +EV games, I couldn't win, then I got lucky playing -EV games. Therefore -EV games are better."
The OP sounds like Rob Singer fan.
You shouldn't talk about accuracy when you're in the habit of making blanket generalizations. Those are almost always inaccurate. For instance, playing against a house edge does not necessarily increase the probability of a loss. The variance of a game dominates the edge for small numbers of trials. In many cases, a player is more likely to leave the casino ahead after an evening of slot play vs. an evening of baccarat play, even though the house edge for baccarat is far smaller than for slots.Quote: GivemethemoneyNot what I was saying at all. I was making the point that playing against a house edge does not guarantee a loss. It increases the probability of a loss. You twist that into me making a recommendation to play -EV games over +EV games which is false. You have an inability to at least acknowledge that it is possible (improbable but possible) to win at which proves to me your desire to be correct outweighs your desire to be accurate.
You came here with a stated intent to help others do better. Generalizations about what's possible with a winning attitude aren't helpful. The typical gambler has enough of a hard time understanding randomness and probability theory without someone intentionally spreading falsehoods.
Neither your money nor the cards know when you've ended one session and started another. Money management is useful for betting or playing within your financial means generally, but it is not a viable technique to increase your overall profits. At the end of the year, if you make N bets, your bankroll results will tend to be the same whether you spread out your play over multiple sessions and over many months vs. one binge-gambling weekend.Quote: GivemethemoneyI accept small wins and protect my wins month to month.... It's pretty much entirely money management and it's got me ahead at bacarrat over 5 years of playing and I live at the casino.
But you shouldn't live at the casino. It doesn't matter if you've won recently and feel good about it. Someone who admits that they maxed out their mortgage and credit cards to gamble should not be gambling at all. Disordered gambling is not something to mess around with, and just because you're on a lucky streak in a -EV game doesn't mean you aren't an addict. Please seek help.
Quote: MathExtremistYou shouldn't talk about accuracy when you're in the habit of making blanket generalizations. Those are almost always inaccurate. For instance, playing against a house edge does not necessarily increase the probability of a loss. The variance of a game dominates the edge for small numbers of trials. In many cases, a player is more likely to leave the casino ahead after an evening of slot play vs. an evening of baccarat play, even though the house edge for baccarat is far smaller than for slots.
You came here with a stated intent to help others do better. Generalizations about what's possible with a winning attitude aren't helpful. The typical gambler has enough of a hard time understanding randomness and probability theory without someone intentionally spreading falsehoods.
Dude.... Youve got a pretty strong ego man. Do you think advising others on limiting losses is bad? Do you think advising others to accept small wins is bad? Do you think advising others to practice discipline is bad? If someone asked you what a good money management system would be, what would you tell them? Is it the fact that I've won these last few years that bothers you? Maybe you don't believe it cause it doesn't fit whatever math your used to? Would you prefer that if someone does win, they don't share their story? I'm assuming you would flame anyone who gives advice to a player that plays any game that is -EV. Hell, might as well let them all drown themselves then give them solid advice that might be working for someone else. I have a very sneaky suspicion that you don't have allot of friends bro but thats just a guess. Also, I'm an engineer but far from being a master mathmatician. I've worked alongside some amazing math guys while I was at Google and Cisco. Those guys were incredible but had to be. Not sure what peddlestool some other posters seem to hold you on but a slot mechanic is hardly someone I would put in that category.
You told the story of how you pulled yourself out of gambling-induced debt by ... gambling more. If you're at the point where you've mortgaged your house to gamble with the equity, you should stop gambling altogether. If you can't do that by yourself, get help. You found yourself in this situation: "having nothing in the bank, all my credit cards maxed out, refinancing my place so I could gamble away all the equity, loans used exclusively for gambling, and even loans against my 401k" and instead of telling others how you quit gambling, your advice is to keep gambling just with a different strategy. Of course that's terrible advice.Quote: GivemethemoneyDo you think advising others on limiting losses is bad? Do you think advising others to accept small wins is bad? Do you think advising others to practice discipline is bad?
I'm not kidding about getting help, either. By your own admission, your behavior presents as a probable pathological gambler on the South Oaks Gambling Screen:
http://www.ncrg.org/sites/default/files/uploads/docs/monographs/sogs.pdf
If he is trying to lure people into buying his system, that violates the forum rules.
Quote: discflickerIf he is trying to lure people into buying his system, that violates the forum rules.
I think we're all smarter than that.
I dunno who's more dangerous. The guys selling worthless systems for money or the ones that say they'll teach you them for "free."
Quote: IbeatyouracesI think we're all smarter than that.
I dunno who's more dangerous. The guys selling worthless systems for money or the ones that say they'll teach you them for "free."
Or the ones saying the forum rules are being violated when the OP has never offered or even hinted at selling anything.
ZCore13
Z-core, nobody accused anyone, I'm am questioning why the OP is here making these arguments the same way you questioned me about advertising.