Winning with Standard Deviation

If I play perfect blackjack and have an adequate bankroll (100 times average bet), standard deviation tells me that
sometime before my bankroll is depleted, I will ahead by 50%. If I quit with a 25% profit. I am a sure winner.

The question is: do the laws of standard deviation continue into my next session where they left off in this one?

If I cash out and go to another table with my original bankroll, do the law of chance rewind and start over with me?

Cal

No, the statistical conditions don't start over. Your results were close to completely random at the first table, and they'll be close to completely random at the second table as well. No matter how much time or distance is between your playing sessions, you're adding to the same set of results and not starting a new set.

Quote: cals5839

If I play perfect blackjack and have an adequate bankroll (100 times average bet), standard deviation tells me that
sometime before my bankroll is depleted, I will ahead by 50%. If I quit with a 25% profit. I am a sure winner.

The question is: do the laws of standard deviation continue into my next session where they left off in this one?

If I cash out and go to another table with my original bankroll, do the law of chance rewind and start over with me?

Cal

"Playing session" is an illusion. In reality, you only have one long playing session. What, as a practical matter, is the difference between your next hand being in five seconds, in three days, or in six months?

Thanks for the input. It is what I guessed. But it seems rather hazy to me. If the odds of a coin coming up heads is independent of the results of the last flip, why isn't every set of 100 flips independent of the last set of 100?

Cal.

Unless those sets of flips overlap (or you discover you are using a biased coin), they ARE independent.

Also, in the original post, you are never guaranteed to be ahead. It is quite possible that you lose your first hand, never get ahead for that session, and lose your session bankroll before ever seeing positive results.

People often confuse events and long-term probability.

Each event is independent of eachother, however when calculating probability and standard deviation, the calculations are based on long term string of events.

It seems like the reality is often forgotten when people gamble. The reality is you're flipping a coin over and over again with the casino. When the casino wins, you lose $10. When you win, you receive $9.85. Sometimes you'll win 10x in a row, other times you'll lose 10x in a row, however on average, you can expect that you'll win about as many times as you lose. However, notice that if you flip the coin 1000x and you win 50% of the time, you lose $5000 and you win $4925, with a loss of $75. This is why casino's are open 24/7 and they always make money.

Quote: cals5839

If I play perfect blackjack and have an adequate bankroll (100 times average bet), standard deviation tells me that
sometime before my bankroll is depleted, I will ahead by 50%. If I quit with a 25% profit. I am a sure winner.

This statement is totally untrue.

I can not totally agree. Let's we have a coin and flip it 100.000.000 times.

I no for sure, after 100.000.000 coin flips we don't see exactly 50.000.000 time tail. It will be close to 50.000.000 but because of the standard deviation the outcome is another number.

We can say the same for blackjack... looking at a player flat betting and using basic strategy.. doing 100.000.000 sessions and play.. let's say 1.000.000.000.000 hands.
The chance he has lost money at the end of that 1.000.000.000.000 is bigger then a win but still... because of the standard deviation he can be up and have a small win in the end.

Some people are just a but more lucky.. also in the long, long run.. just a bit more lucky.

But I agree, talking in 'sessions' means nothing.. because when you gamble.. the end of the session is when you die or quitte gambling.

Quote: mkl654321

"Playing session" is an illusion. In reality, you only have one long playing session. What, as a practical matter, is the difference between your next hand being in five seconds, in three days, or in six months?

Even the Internal Revenue Service is unable to respond logically on that one.

Quote: cals5839

The question is: do the laws of standard deviation continue into my next session where they left off in this one?

Think of it as a coin being automatically tossed by a machine with perhaps a dozen bettors all standing around making bets on it. Suddenly you decide to "end your session" and come back later. Would you really call out to the coin to "hold them standard deviations in memory, I'll be right back" What if an additional player walks up? Does he start at the next flip? If he has been watching but not betting, would you really ask if the standard deviation is held in abeyance for awhile?

The house edge is like the law of gravity: it always is applicable. There is no escape. There are expectations. You can get lucky. You can get unlucky. In other words, the emotionally relevant session may start with your making a bet but the statistically relevant session started long ago and will continue for a long time: each flip of the coin, each spin of the wheel, each roll of the dice ... are all alike. You may remember the last coin toss, but the coin does not.

Your next session at Blackjack can start whenever you want. The dealer may remember you, the waitress may remember you, surveillance may remember you, but them cards don't.