Buzzard's Horse System

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if a 5/2 fave finishes 3rd in a 12 horse field the show payouts would be very, very different if 2 longshots came in 1st and 2nd compared to when the next 2 lowest odds horses came in 1st and 2nd

with 2 longshots in 1st and 2nd - maybe even money - in which case the tote board might show $4.00

with 2 of the next lowest odds in 1st and 2nd - probably less than 1/2 - in which case the tote board might show $2.60

why_____?_________much less money is usually bet on the shots across the board which means there is more money from the lower odds horses to go to the show payout when the longshots come in 1st and 2nd

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I ran across this result and it is so skewed on a long shot winner. If I bet $100 Win and $200 Place on the winner it would have paid
(50 X $111 = $5,550) + (100 X $35 = $3,500) for a total of $9,050, which would require a 24% tax withholding of $2,172, so a take home of $6,878. They might just tax the $5,550 at $1,332 and I'd have a take home of $4,218 for the Win bet, if they count as separate tickets.





Wizard Of Id cartoon out here being suspicious.

Quote: lilredrooster

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if a 5/2 fave finishes 3rd in a 12 horse field the show payouts would be very, very different if 2 longshots came in 1st and 2nd compared to when the next 2 lowest odds horses came in 1st and 2nd

with 2 longshots in 1st and 2nd - maybe even money - in which case the tote board might show $4.00

with 2 of the next lowest odds in 1st and 2nd - probably less than 1/2 - in which case the tote board might show $2.60

why_____?_________much less money is usually bet on the shots across the board which means there is more money from the lower odds horses to go to the show payout when the longshots come in 1st and 2nd

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link to original post

That is because the total amount of money paid to the tickets that bet the favorite to show is the amount bet on that horse to show plus 1/3 of (the total amount bet on all other horses to show, minus the cut, minus the amounts bet on the horses that finished first and second). If the horses that finished first and second had a lot of show money bet on them, that leaves less to pay back on the third place horse's show tickets. If they just paid out the show bets from the show pool without splitting it three ways, then all three show payouts would be the same.

I am assuming that the reason they set aside the amounts bet on the three show horses first, and then divide the rest equally three ways, is, if they divided the show pool three ways without setting that amount aside, there would be a lot of minus pools (situations where they do not have enough money to pay off the $2.10 minimum for a $2 bet) on favorites finishing in the top three.

Here's an example:

Assume there are 6 horses
The show bets are:
1 - 60,000
2 - 50,000
3 - 40,000
4 - 30,000
5 - 20,000
6 - 10,000
The total show pool is 210,000; if the cut is 15%, this leaves 178,500 in the pool

If the horses finish 2, 3, 1:
Setting aside the 150,000 bet on these three horses, this leaves 28,500 in the pool
The amount paid back on show bets on #1 is 60,000 + (28,500 / 3) = 69,500
A $2 show bet on #1 pays 69,500 / 60,000 x 2 = 2.3167, rounded down to 2.30 with 10-cent breakage

On the other hand, if the horses finish 4, 5, 1:
Setting aside the 90,000 bet on these three horses, this leaves 88,500 in the pool
The amount paid back on show bets on #1 is 60,000 + (46,500 / 3) = 89,500
A $2 show bet on #1 pays 89,500 / 60,000 x 2 = 2.9833, rounded down to 2.90 with 10-cent breakage

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very excellent calculations from Don above

breakage - the final nail in the horseplayers coffin - in Don's example the player's profit is cut a little more than 8% because of breakage - almost laughable

actually takeout on win, place and show bets I believe averages out to be about 17% - and can get up close to 30% on the extreme exotic bets such as Superfectas at some tracks - how utterly ridiculous

horseplayers that bet a huge amount on "sure thing" faves to show are cynically nicknamed "bridge jumpers"

an example would be faves whose win odds are 2/5 in a five horse field - tracks will declare no show betting if there are less than 5 runners

they're called "bridge jumpers" because when their horse fails to show they might look for a bridge to jump off of

the "bridge jumpers" gravitate towards a very few tracks which pay a minimum of $2,20 to show

these tracks include Charlestown, Mountaineer, Suffolk, Prairie Meadows and Arapahoe - tiny operations do this to attract the jumpers

at least these tracks used to pay that - maybe things have changed - I haven't followed racing in quite a while

not exactly a gold mine - but if you get a $2,20 payout and just about everybody everywhere else can only get $2.10 on a similar bet, you won double what they won - I guess that can make a person feel kinna shrewd

not my cup of tea at all though - each to his own

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Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: lilredrooster

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link to original post

Here's an example:

Assume there are 6 horses
The show bets are:
1 - 60,000
2 - 50,000
3 - 40,000
4 - 30,000
5 - 20,000
6 - 10,000
The total show pool is 210,000; if the cut is 15%, this leaves 178,500 in the pool

If the horses finish 2, 3, 1:
Setting aside the 150,000 bet on these three horses, this leaves 28,500 in the pool
The amount paid back on show bets on #1 is 60,000 + (28,500 / 3) = 69,500
A $2 show bet on #1 pays 69,500 / 60,000 x 2 = 2.3167, rounded down to 2.30 with 10-cent breakage

On the other hand, if the horses finish 4, 5, 1:
Setting aside the 90,000 bet on these three horses, this leaves 88,500 in the pool
The amount paid back on show bets on #1 is 60,000 + (46,500 / 3) = 89,500
A $2 show bet on #1 pays 89,500 / 60,000 x 2 = 2.9833, rounded down to 2.90 with 10-cent breakage
link to original post

Just a typo on line 3. Changing 46,500 to 88,500

On the other hand, if the horses finish 4, 5, 1:
Setting aside the 90,000 bet on these three horses, this leaves 88,500 in the pool
The amount paid back on show bets on #1 is 60,000 + (88,500 / 3 = 29,500) = 89,500
A $2 show bet on #1 pays 89,500 / 60,000 x 2 = 2.9833, rounded down to 2.90 with 10-cent breakage

Quote: lilredrooster

actually takeout on win, place and show bets I believe averages out to be about 17% - and can get up close to 30% on the extreme exotic bets such as Superfectas at some tracks - how utterly ridiculous

When I first went to the track in California, in the early 1980s, the takeout was exactly 15.75% for some reason.

Quote: lilredrooster

horseplayers that bet a huge amount on "sure thing" faves to show are cynically nicknamed "bridge jumpers"

an example would be faves whose win odds are 2/5 in a five horse field - tracks will declare no show betting if there are less than 5 runners

they're called "bridge jumpers" because when their horse fails to show they might look for a bridge to jump off of

link to original post

And occasionally, when they do lose, there is so much money in the show pool that a horse will pay more to show than it will to place.

Quote: ChumpChange

I was thinking about just going to the Pari-mutuel Window and making bets there, but this is the internet age and something else is happening. Odds change prior to race time and it's a feeding frenzy of bettors out there.

Many European sites offer fixed odds at the time of the bet.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

When I first went to the track in California, in the early 1980s, the takeout was exactly 15.75% for some reason.

And it is now exactly 15.43%*

*For small retail bettors, which will definitely include the OP of this thread & the fellow inquiring with the recent resurrection of it, as well as for the peculiar sort possessed with a burning need to make lots & lots of what they hope are perceived as authoritative sounding 'respected members' posts on WoV forums. But YOU might be interested to know that a large share of the money in those pools is routinely wagered by those paying significantly less through rebate arrangements.

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many tracks such as Santa Anita, in the win, place and show pool take their breakage down to the 20 cent point - see link - except for the $2.10 payouts when that happens

in some of the other pools they do this and in some they don't

so, if a show bet after the takeout would be calculated to pay $2.99 it will actually only pay $2,80

breakage in this instance will take away almost 20% of the profit on the bet - kinna hard to believe but true

they could have easily solved the breakage issue (they claim it was done that way so tracks wouldn't have to handle so much change) by rounding up or down depending where the payout fell to the nearest 20 cent point

that would have been fair - but no - they had to be so very greedy


the Kentucky Derby is this coming Saturday and a winning show bet could pay very well even on the fave with 20 horses in the field

but it's very difficult to predict which horses will like the distance which is at least one eighth of a mile further than any of them have ever run before


https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/SA042724USA-EQB.html


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