Middling Season Win Bets

Is there a way to determine when it’s plus EV to middle a bet like season win totals?

Example:

Bulls over 34.5 wins -120
Bulls under 38.5 wins -120

If this existed, how do you know if you should bet it?

Quote: FinsRule

Is there a way to determine when it’s plus EV to middle a bet like season win totals?

Example:

Bulls over 34.5 wins -120
Bulls under 38.5 wins -120

If this existed, how do you know if you should bet it?
link to original post

Great question. There are 3 possible results.
Under 35
35-38
Over 38

Let’s say you bet $12 on both props.
Under 35 you lose $2
35-38 you win $20
Over 38 you lose $2.

You would need to know the relative likelihood of all 3 possibilities. Then it’s easy to figure out. If you can find out historical win/loss totals on teams with an O/U preseason of 36.5 you can get a good estimate on the EV.

Your hypothetical I would think is pretty strongly +EV.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: FinsRule

Is there a way to determine when it’s plus EV to middle a bet like season win totals?

Example:

Bulls over 34.5 wins -120
Bulls under 38.5 wins -120

If this existed, how do you know if you should bet it?
link to original post

Great question. There are 3 possible results.
Under 35
35-38
Over 38

Let’s say you bet $12 on both props.
Under 35 you lose $2
35-38 you win $20
Over 38 you lose $2.

You would need to know the relative likelihood of all 3 possibilities. Then it’s easy to figure out. If you can find out historical win/loss totals on teams with an O/U preseason of 36.5 you can get a good estimate on the EV.

Your hypothetical I would think is pretty strongly +EV.
link to original post

Thanks. I figured out how to use a normal distribution calculator to get the answer.

It turns out the actual play I had - WNBA win totals - Was about 13% + EV. Of course it’s gone now. But now I know how to figure it out faster so I can pull the trigger faster.

Sky were over 10.5 and under 13.5. In a 40 game season that’s a giant middle. Oh well…