YoDiceRoll11's Blog

Happy Trails, NCAA Round of 64 ReportMarch 15th, 2012 at 3:36:04 pm

This thread is dedicated to the teams that must go back home and start practicing for the fall in the NCAA Men's Tournament. The Big Dance. Post your reactions to the wins and losses here. This is also to keep a record for the future.

03/15/2012

Happy trails to Colorado State. Murray St was just too much for you.

Happy trails to Southern Miss.. You missed 6 consecutive three point attempts in the last couple of minutes. You got out-rebounded by Kansas St.

Happy Trails to Davidson. Louisville was just too much for you offensively. Louisville is used to grinding a win out against tough teams, which you weren't because you couldn't hit a 3 to save your life. You finally hit one at 8:30 left in the 2nd half after not hitting one since early in the first half. Too little. Too late. Good luck Louisville!

Better luck next year to Montana. You made a good showing but couldn't compete with the pedigree of Wisconsin and got blown out.

Goodbye to BYU. Your weird strategy to get behind and make room for a comeback didn't work against Marquette. They were too much of an inside presence. Too physical for you and you just couldn't hit enough from outside the post and outside the 3 point line

Happy Trails to UNC Asheville . The officials were a little one sided on some of the baby bump calls under the basket for the Orange. Probably the only reason they escaped. But they are going to have a tough next game if they can't even handle the pressure of a 16 seed. Syracuse advances even though they got all the freaking help they could've imagined with the worst calls I've ever seen. These officials need to be investigated for gambling on the Orange. OK maybe not. But still very sad to see obvious calls completely ignored. Karma will come back to bite Syracuse.

Time to sit down and watch the rest of the tourney Long Beach State. What a great game to watch!!!! Most evenly matched game so far in my opinion. Good luck to the New Mexico Lobos. You were able to hold off the 49'ers attempt at a good run at the end of the game.

Craps Report: Tulalip Casino 01/13/2012January 15th, 2012 at 11:50:31 am

Tulalip Casino
Marysville, WA

Friday the 13th. Buy in $60. Low spread $35. 10x odds at most tables. Used hardway set entire time. Dealers fairly friendly, stickman(girl) has a sense of humor. Boxman Oscar very professional as usual, even with some newbies at the table. One guy, completely drunk, keeps handling dice with both hands, and at times brings them behind the table. They nicely give him warnings. He throws the dice so hard it rolls down the sidewall, hits the backwall, and almost makes it 3/4 of the way back to the shooter.

Went with a friend, a new player. Love explaining the game to new people. Watched table for 20 minutes. Able to qualify a few shooters who stayed. Bought in stickman left 1. Had a stacker playing left high corner. Had a woman playing SR back wall setting 3V's and intensely looking at other end of the table. Her throws had some yaw in it, but somehow she was hitting with some consistency. Dice got to me. Made 2 points, 7O. Came down to around $35 after a few other shooters with choppy hands. Made sure to tip the dealers every 20 minutes or so. One time when a hardway tip bet lost on the next roll, I just tipped them the same amount they lost on the bet. They were appreciative.

On another shooter. The lady that was with the high roller at SR corner high bet a 6-3 on the hop. She actually got it. Haven't seen a hop bet win in awhile.

Always betting conservatively, P/L with odds. Maybe a come bet here or there, Place 6 and 8 here and there. No field bets. (watched a guy win $80 on a $40 field bet, he lost a few more of those and put $60 on the field, lost that. Cmon people, stop betting the field!)

Dice back to me. Made 5 points. On come out 3 made two 7's in a row. On one roll, another woman bet hard 10. My next roll, hard 10. She was pleased. Come out roll 4 was a 9. Everyone bought odds. One high roller playing SR corner high had $50 P/L with $200 odds and had $1100 of action on the boxes. He was doing well.

Guy to my left was buying high odds during my rolls. Made him at least $100. One of the things I love more than betting on myself is making other people money. Very fun. Lots of high fives.

On my fifth point, 7O after 4 rolls post point.

My fiance had never been a shooter. So she rolled her virgin hand. She made a 9 for the point and had 3 rolls and 7O. She had a lot of fun but we lost $20 on that virgin hand. No worries. Colored up $121. Overall had a very good time here. I like this casino a lot. Tables are consistent, staff are usually friendly if you know what you are doing, even are friendly if you don't. High ceilings, above average ventilation, nice atmosphere.

Disclaimer: I am a dice setter and controlled thrower. Please don't use this space to contest this strategy. Enjoy my stories!

Comments

teddys January 15th, 2012 at 1:06:37 pm	Ooh, sparkly.
odiousgambit January 16th, 2012 at 3:21:56 am	Glad you got to color up ahead. We still need a current 'big win' report from a Craps player around here.
jlnoble2400 January 16th, 2012 at 4:11:30 am	Mr wizard I know I am over doing this but I need someone to answer my question. Because I ran my blackjack simulator 2,000,000,789 hands and I think I came up with a way to beat blackjack without counting. Here is the entire peace please do the math for me and explain to me why this fails my blackjack simulator from ace spade keeps giving me a positive return I dont think this is the right place to post this but I am going to reply anyways. I have my bachelors degree in statistics from emporia state university. I very recently brought stanford wongs casino tournament strategy book. Because I was trying to think if the math for it was right for what I was thinking as far as a blackjack method that did not involve counting but consistently beat the house. I also bought blackjack software and tested it for 2,000,000,789 hands. My results for this came up stunning I developed what I thought is a a variation of deep stack level progression non going broke betting strategy based on the laws of probability over time. This produces a positive gain for the player and let me explain how it works by explaining what it is not. We know the math behind martingale doesnt work because you eventually go broke and you are betting to get one unit. What if you took a betting progression strategy and gave yourself aq bankroll of 200 times that betting progression and never went beyond that level you would then becoming up with something that beats the math behind most games because you never progress beyond that barrier of that which you have 200 times the total amount of the progresssion. In even money games like blackjack the odds of winning one hand without doubling and splittling is close to 48% the odds of winning one out of two hands in blackjack without doubling or splittling is 73% and the odds of winning one out of three hands without doing the same is 86%. So here are the progressions I ran in my computer giving each player 200 X the total amount of each progression to see if we could yield a positive gain running each trial a minimum of 2,000,000,789 hands to account for the proper adjustments, I did 6 progression levels of each 200 deep for the total amount of progression so the players would not go broke if they lost one progression each player resorts back to the minimum bet after winning one progression bet For the 1x then 5 X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth of 12.7% percent over the long term For the 1X 3X 15X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 11.3% over the long term in simulation For the 1X 2X 6X 18X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 10.4% over the long term For the 1x2X 6x 18X 72X progression 200 deep my profit resutls yielded a constant growth rate 9.6% over the long term For the 1x 2x 6X 18x 54X 216X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 8.7% For the 1x 2x 6x 18x 54x 162X 1000X 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 6.5% These trial progressions were ran 2,000,000,789 hands for each progression again the only reason this worked was because each player was sitting 200 deep of the total progression that way if a progression lost the player did not go broke. Cost is broken down as the following this is assuming a 5 dollar min wager Bankroll for player A 5 + 25 = 30 * 200 = 6000 dollars Bankroll for player b 5 + 15 + 75 * 200 = 19000 dollars Bankroll for player c 5 + 10+ 30 + 90 * 200 = 27000 dollars Bankroll for Player d 5 + 10 + 30 + 90 + 360 * 200 = 99000 dollars Bankroll for Player e 5 + 10 + 30 + 90 + 270 + 1080 * 200 297000 dollars Bankroll for Player F 5 = 10 + 30 + 90 + 270 + 810 + 5000 * 200 1,245,000 dollars The whole premise behind this is to make sure you have 200 X of the total progression. Then the math does it self. Without the 200 X the strategy is no different then a glamoured up martingale. Without the 200 x the math says that this strategy will fail eventually. I would like someone else to do the math for me on this as well because maybe I have overlooked something, or maybe 2,000,000,789 is not enough hands. Yes that is right over 2 billion hands. Anyways get back to me on this please thank u Jeremy Noble
NowTheSerpent January 16th, 2012 at 6:34:27 am	Quote: YoDice11 My fiance had never been a shooter. So she rolled her virgin hand. She made a 9 for the point and had 3 rolls and 7O. She had a lot of fun but we lost $20 on that virgin hand. No worries. So much for that myth!
YoDiceRoll11 January 16th, 2012 at 10:59:37 am	Yeah No kidding. The guy next to us was like, cmon sweetheart, let's get that virgin roll down. (Maybe that is why it didn't work). And Yes, it is very sparkly in there, high ceilings. Looks pretty cool actually. Is there a way to delete spam blog comments?
AcesAndEights January 16th, 2012 at 2:46:43 pm	Cool, I am interested in controlled shooting. I've read Scoblete's Golden Touch book and Wong on Dice. I went as far as buying 2 sets of dice but never got any practice rigs or anything before I decided to learn card counting first and come back to controlled dice throwing later (perhaps after more research has been done, since blackjack is provably beatable with mathematical analysis alone). That said I'm curious if you have any book or training recommendations. Have you taken any of the paid dice setting classes that some of the authors offer?
YoDiceRoll11 January 16th, 2012 at 5:26:30 pm	The classes can be expensive and hard to get to. If you have the self control to understand the basic physics of the dice, and have good self control, you can do well learning on your own. The key is using dice setting, with a conservative betting strategy. The best book to read is, Casino Craps: Shoot to Win. by Scoblete, Even for people not interested in controlled shooting, this book is a must read. Some people will poo poo it, but it is ultimately up to you decide, but you get in, what you get out. Some people give up after only understanding the basics and not really delving into it with an open mind. For me, it is just a really fun hobby, and at the best, you can increase your edge by a percent or two (maybe more), and at the worst....well it can't be worse than just slinging the dice down the table. I see a lot of dice setters, who set the dice, and don't even do a controlled throw, blows my mind. The hardest part of dice setting is establishing and maintaining a correct grip with a natural throw and release. Let me know if you have any other questions. YoDR11
AcesAndEights January 17th, 2012 at 1:34:07 pm	Quote: The best book to read is, Casino Craps: Shoot to Win. by Scoblete, Yes! That is the one I have read, I just couldn't for the life of me remember the title. I enjoyed it and the free DVD was a nice throw-in as well. Quote: For me, it is just a really fun hobby, and at the best, you can increase your edge by a percent or two (maybe more), and at the worst....well it can't be worse than just slinging the dice down the table. This is exactly how I feel as well - best case, I have a slight edge over the house, just like card counting but without the heat (so far, at least). Worst case I'm getting the same odds as everyone else (and with the way I bet at craps, I minimize the house edge as much as possible) and have wasted my time practicing. The wasted time is a bummer, but my gut tells me it is possible for some people. The problem for me is that I am not physically gifted in terms of coordination, etc. I am marginally athletic (I played football in high school, play Ultimate now), but even if controlled shooting is possible, I fear that I don't have the physically gifts to accomplish it. Anyway, if I ever get back to it I will ask you for advice. Actually I already have a simple question, what kind of record-keeping do you do to see if (over time) your shots are being effective?
YoDiceRoll11 January 17th, 2012 at 3:34:00 pm	The best record to keep is to do session throws in multiples of 360, and record your SRR ratio, or Seven to rolls ratio. Probability says standard (variance aside) SRR should be 1:6, or 1 seven for every 6 rolls. Scoblete, and others, have said that if you can increase your SRR to just 1:6.1 you have an edge (depending on your betting strategy). So recording your rolls with just one set, say the hardway set, and just count the total amount of rolls, and amount of sevens. You can always record point numbers, and point win numbers if you like too. So if you can get just below 52 sevens showing up in 360 rolls, you just turned your SRR to 1:7. Practice should be done on a fairly replicated practice rig, with the diamond back wall, and a wood and felt combination. Gotta get that back wall. The most important thing to do is to get your grip right, and as long as that is marginal, make sure the dice are parallel to the back wall when you release them. Gauge the path of your release like you would that of a golf club. Some people throw the dice with a inside back swing, to square, to inside forward swing. Some prefer a straight back, straight through method, like putting in golf. That biggest thing is being comfortable, and letting the dice out of your hands, not forcing them out. Cheers.
YoDiceRoll11 January 17th, 2012 at 5:36:26 pm	Also since you are a staunch darksider, dice control could be a lucrative idea for you, lowering the chance of seeing a 7 on the comeout, and trying to get it to peek out more during the point cycle. Very interesting way to play. Kinda dirty. I like it.
clamchowder January 18th, 2012 at 3:48:53 am	Nice review. As a table minimum player, I have received virtually nothing in value from Tulalip, not even mailers. The exception is a couple of small offers in conjunction with filling out a survey, but I do not believe that was directly gambling-based. I did receive a comp after losing money at roulette probably in 2005. I like the atmosphere of the place, but drinks aren't cheap and Tulalip doesn't really give me any reason to make a special trip up there.
TIMSPEED January 18th, 2012 at 8:01:35 am	Looks like a nice place, and in Reno, you NEVER find a dice table that crowded! Looks like a helluva lot of fun! I am a "controlled thrower" too (best record of 104 rolls in 2½ hours), lately, I have been setting 6/3 on top with 5/1 looking at me and having good results.
YoDiceRoll11 January 18th, 2012 at 11:43:32 pm	Reno doesn't even get busy on Friday nights??? 6/3 on top and 5/1 facing, that's using an axis of 4,3-,5,2 from L to R. It is a slight variation from the crossed six set I think. Crossed Six axis is 4,3-2,5 (reverse axis of your right die), with face totals of 12,9,2,5.... Your 6/3-5/1 has face totals of 9,6,5,8. Cool!

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