OnceDear's Blog

Actually, though the above post is absolutely true and reflects a modest profit over a few days, this is a prime example of selective reporting. Work your way through my blog to read about all the times I had losing sessions and lost an aggregate amount of many MANY thousands.... You might struggle to find those posts. That's how session players can appear to have the Golden Fleece, the Holy Grail, the Arc of the Covenant and the Philosopher's Stone.

I play for amusement.

I lose money.

I originally won a few grand. I later won a few more grand, I have a few grand of all that left, so technically, I'm ahead lifetime so far, thanks to luck. It's all trivial compared to my real world 'current account'

Here's the chart of my 'Lifetime Bankroll' I'll update it from time to time. Look at the latter part where I was messing about with Hit and Run.



Win some: Lose some: Enjoy the game: Stay safe.

I too have noticed that when I increase my wagering, that is when I get clobbered.



Only I do not gamble online - so that means I have noticed this in circumstances where most of us trust the game not to be rigged .



One thing springs to mind, though: the proportion of my betting that is flat betting must be over 95% of my action. Thus, I am making an observation about a small proportion of my gambling vis a vis my perception of the vast proportion of it . It isn't hard to see how I get a skewed view - of course I can only speak for myself.

Ok, confession time, just to prove I'm not completely selective in my reporting:



I continued into the night, low rolling and took my £305 down to £42 before going on tilt. While on tilt, I ground that £42 up to £401, without any intervening buy in. In a slightly rash continuation, I attempted to tilt my way up to £500. Failed and lost the lot.



Still, it was a bit of fun and cost me £100 investment on the day. This was shamelessly recreational play.

Member Odiousgambit has been invited to a proposition bet and discussions are underway:-

I've said that I will play up to 10 sessions of RNG blackjack, each time starting with £50 bankroll. I'll play each session until I either double that bankroll, or I lose it down to 50p. After each session, I'll reset my account balance by withdrawal or topping up.

If I fail in 6 or more sessions, I lose the prop bet. and the bet is resolved with no need to continue.

If I succeed in 6 or more sessions, I win the prop bet and the bet is resolved with no need to continue.

If I succeed 5 times and fail 5 times, it's a push.



OdiousGambit would have a slight advantage because of the house edge, but with variance, it could go either way with almost equal probability.



Why am I doing this?

As a mildly amusing talking point

To illustrate that it is possible to have fun playing a low stakes progressive system, without too much jeopardy

To collect some 'typical' real life game data which will be charted for illustration.

To possibly show that online Blackjack is not conspicuously rigged and can reasonably be trusted at low betting levels..



Maybe later, I will repeat the exercise with higher wagers to possibly indicate that the game behaves differently in a rigged way.

This exercise will not be statistically sound analysis.

Unrelated ps

I had a good session yesterday and doubled my £250 bankroll at Live online Blackjack. That included £50 of bonus vulturing.

Wager with OdiousGambit has been agreed in principle. Just need his final acceptance of the amount and terms.



Session 1 will commence at 23:00 GMT tonight.



I just await him confirming that he is happy to proceed with the 'terms' above and to finally confirm the amount of our wager.



I propose to start each session at 23:00 GMT each day and to post the results soon afterwards. I won't post any results, of course, until ODG has finalised the terms. :o)



[edit] ODG has now agreed the value of the wager between us and has raised no concerns about its terms. So, game on !

I think I have him worried $:o) [/edit]

WOW!

Session 1 is complete. Commenced 23:00 GMT 09 Oct.

Outcome is outside my expectations by a long way.

Show Session 1 Outcome

Remarkably, my session bankroll never went below its starting level of £50

Session Duration	32 Minutes
Games Played	137
Games Won	76
Games Lost	51
Games Pushed	10

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£50
Bankroll Highest	£100
Ending Bankroll	£100

I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. No card counting. Basic Strategy from memory.

Note the characteristic sawtooth shape to the chart that results from progressive wagering.



So, This is one point to OnceDear.

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 2 Outcome

This session just ran and ran. After 3am, I had to go to bed, to resume next day! Almost 5 hours of play.

Session Duration	4 Hours 53 Minutes
Games Played	1192
Games Won	536
Games Lost	563
Games Pushed	93

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£13
Bankroll Highest	£100
Ending Bankroll	£100

Again, I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. No card counting. Basic Strategy from memory.



So, This is another point to OnceDear. Current score 2:0

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 3 Outcome

I'd changed the betting pattern to introduce variance and speed up the session. To that extent it succeeded. The most remarkable feature is the crushing defeat by a few bad streaks in succession. Typical demise to a progressive system.

Session Duration	2 Hours 2 Minutes
Games Played	560
Games Won	240
Games Lost	272
Games Pushed	48

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£0
Bankroll Highest	£86
Ending Bankroll	£0

This session, I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,4,4,4 progressive. As anticipated, that brought the duration of the session down significantly.



So, This is a point to OdiousGambit. Current score 2:1

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 4 Outcome

I reverted to mostly 1,2,3,3,3 progressive, with just a few wagers of 4. Slightly remarkable that I won more games than I lost.

Session Duration	1 Hour 6 Minutes
Games Played	244
Games Won	115
Games Lost	107
Games Pushed	22

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£42
Bankroll Highest	£100.5
Ending Bankroll	£100.5

This session, I generally stuck to a 1,2,3,3,3 progressive. Fortunately I did not ebb and flow into a very long session.

This chart is typical of a Martingale style progression, albeit I was capping my max wager to 4 units.



So, This is another point to Oncedear. Current score 3:1

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 5 Outcome

For amusement, I applied a capped Martingale 1,2,4,4,4 progression. This helped to keep the session short,Nothing remarkable, except that I had a few decent climb backs from very low ebbs.

Session Duration	1 Hour 52 Minutes
Games Played	482
Games Won	203
Games Lost	230
Games Pushed	49

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£0
Bankroll Highest	£81
Ending Bankroll	£0

This chart is typical of a capped Martingale style progression, with its steady up-ramps punctuated by massive vertical plunges. I was capping my max wager to 4 units. except when doubling or splitting. Marty did make the session more fun. My nemesis was a losing streak of 17 games!



So, This is another point to OdiousGambit. Current score 3:2

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 6 Outcome

For amusement, I again applied a capped Martingale 1,2,4,4,4 progression. I almost crashed and burned early on with two streaks of 8 losses each. Climbed back to £64 until I was eventually wiped out by a number of small losing streaks in succession.

Session Duration	2 Hours 12 Minutes
Games Played	578
Games Won	253
Games Lost	290
Games Pushed	35

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£0.50
Bankroll Highest	£71
Ending Bankroll	£0.50

This chart is again typical of a capped Martingale style progression, with its steady up-ramps punctuated by massive vertical plunges. I was capping my max wager to 4 units. except when doubling or splitting. Marty did make the session more fun.



So, This is another point to OdiousGambit. Current score 3:3

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 7 Outcome

Total change to betting pattern tonight.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing a few £8 hands.



WOW! Shortest session for a long time. Just look at the ratio of games won to games lost, and some of those were doubles and BlackJacks!

Bankroll NEVER dipped below the starting £50!

Session Duration	14 Minutes
Games Played	38
Games Won	22
Games Lost	12
Games Pushed	4

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£50
Bankroll Highest	£100
Ending Bankroll	£100

This chart is typical random walk, with typical OnceDear luck.



So, This is another point to OnceDear. Current score 4:3

Video capture of the transaction log is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 8 Outcome

Same betting pattern as last night.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing and dramatically losing one £12 round.



WOW! an even shorter session. Bankroll was slaughtered by a run of 7 consecutive losing hands, one of which split and had both new hands doubled. I never recovered from that streak, and indeed had several more short losing streaks in succession. Again look at the ratio of games won to games lost.

Session Duration	7 Minutes
Games Played	35
Games Won	9
Games Lost	25
Games Pushed	1

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£0
Bankroll Highest	£54
Ending Bankroll	£0

This chart is typical random walk, down to oblivion but without typical OnceDear luck.



So, This is another point to OdiousGambit. Current score 4:4

Video capture of the transaction log is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 9 Outcome

Same betting pattern as last night.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing a few rounds at stakes higher than £4.



Nice: Roller coaster of a random walk. I was lucky to have reduced my wager size as bankroll diminished and I felt almost sure to lose the session quite quickly. The only two really remarkable things about this session were

1)I had a generous bunch of 18 winning blackjacks in 239 wagers.

2)I carelessly allowed myself to win in excess of the target as a Blackjack powered me across the line.

Session Duration	52 Minutes
Games Played	239
Games Won	108
Games Lost	112
Games Pushed	19

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£17
Bankroll Highest	£101.50
Ending Bankroll	£101.50

This chart is typical random walk, down almost to oblivion but with typical OnceDear good luck.



So, This is another point to OnceDear. Current score 5:4

ODG cannot now win our wager, but he has a pretty much 50% chance of a 5:5 tie. OnceDear cannot lose $:o)

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

Show Session 10 Outcome

Same betting pattern as last night.

I decided that at bankroll up to £25, I'd flat bet £2

at bankroll from £26 to £49, I'd flat bet £3

at bankroll from £50 to £90, I'd flat bet £4

at bankroll from £90 to £99, I'd bet up to £4 but not so much as to risk overshooting £100.

I did double or split as required, thus playing a few rounds at stakes higher than £4.



Roller coaster of a random walk - Downhill fast! Really nothing remarkable about this short session.

Session Duration	15 Minutes
Games Played	72
Games Won	26
Games Lost	43
Games Pushed	3

Starting Bankroll	£50
Bankroll Lowest	£0
Bankroll Highest	£61
Ending Bankroll	£0

This chart is typical random walk, down to oblivion and with typical OnceDear bad luck.



So, This is a final point to OdiousGambit taking us to a final score 5:5.

Our substantial wager has resolved to a push.

Video capture of the session is available to Wizard and OdiousGambit, but not shown here because it captured personal details.

>Current score 3:1



OnceDear assures me I have not made a bad bet, erstwhile urging me to increase my wager . Suspicious!



In case it gets lost, the original discussion hinged on testing whether or not the BJ is gaffed, in that it is set to allow bankroll growth at low wagers but will make sure large wagering loses for the player. A 'suck you in' strategy by the house. Clearly the problem is that to test that fully, the player must risk those large wagers and in enough quantity to get sufficient data. That would be an 'ouch' for me and evidently for O.D. as well.



So we are only testing the low wager end of the spectrum. I won't say it is a waste of time in concept, since if it could be shown that low wagering produces a +EV situation, it would suggest the gaffed theory is correct. But it appears tedium can be the problem instead .



Perhaps I should increase my wager to increase the interest? Not at this point of course!

Cheers ODG,

It's too soon to attribute any conclusion to this little experiment: There are a few interim observations behind the spoilers in my earlier comment*. Meanwhile I'm happily throwing many hours at this and collecting a substantial chunk of data. One could say that I'm wasting my time, but what the heck, I would only have been sleeping if I weren't doing this :o) Call it 'taking one for the team.'

It did occur to me that at the resolution of my substantial wager with ODG, that I may not have needed to go the full 10 sessions**. However, for the benefit of any backward looking probability calculations that I might do, I'll assert, now, that the test will be seen through to 10 sessions, win or lose any or all of them.

As ODG points out, we've already figured that whether the game is gaffed or not, it would pretty obviously be -EV to test the behavior at high stakes. I'll review that whole experiment for another time.



* My previous blog comment is where I'm appending session outcomes

** and before anyone says it. I know sessions mean nothing and that life is just one session.

I also know that my progressive betting patterns are not overturning the house edge, which on the underlying game is a tiny 0.41%, + a bit for my odd strategy error.

Underlying game rules.

3 wins to 2 losses now



maybe I won't have to use my backup plan to raise the funds for a losing bet now!

Why would anyone 'conspicuously rig' a game? Every time I've been cheated it has ALWAYS been done inconspicuously.

So, did you lose your entire bankroll and now it is 1689? Or 1689 + 3360?



What is bankroll? When it is not your total savings, which it is not for me, then sometimes I am not sure. A few years ago, I arbitrarily decided it was $10k - but since I didn't just withdraw that and stick it under the mattress, what does that mean? I mused it should mean how much I am willing to lose gambling period, lifetime, from the point in time I declared that, but that I would add approx. 0.1% of my total assets per year to the figure.



I still ponder whether or not I really am willing to lose that $10,000 if it ever came to that. As for now, I am running too good to worry about it. Your story, though, reminds me there could be a day of reckoning.

No, I didn't lose it back. I maintain a 200 float in the online account and what I skimmed off I still have in my current account along with some of the rest of my personal fortune :) I maintain a spreadsheet of 'lifetime bankroll' which started on the day of my big win in Jan 2014 at just over 6k. I track each buy in and cash-out whether it's online or B&M. It makes an interesting graph, which is offline at the moment, but will be posted here soon.



Incidentally I've edited between your replying and this reply. I did have one losing session last night where my 200 float was lost, so I popped 300 back in and ran that up to 700 before creaming off 500.



My profit over these few sessions was 1980 : That's 10 winning sessions and one losing session! Not that sessions mean anything. The last session was a short one with larger wagers.



Because these sessions were all online, I actually have a spreadsheet and chart at the level of individual wagers for this month. It's a very nice steady upward trend.



Though I ebb and flow funds back and forth into my online casino account, and equally I buy in and cash out chips in a B&M casino, I consider my bankroll to be the residue of my £6,000 initial winnings from when I started playing Blackjack in Jan 2014. I still have about 5k of that having had it far higher. If I lose all of that, I might very well create a new 'float' of maybe 10k out of my other funds. But at that time, I'll reassess my gambling motivation and possible addiction.



I'm fortunate that these sums of money are insignificant in the grand scheme of things and will not impact my life in any meaningful way.

Eventually, all online gamblers will learn their lesson. The lure is just too strong. There the computer sits, silently calling out to you as you try to sleep. You can win. You can kick ass, little fella. Just log on and you'll see. lol Brick and mortar. The punishment of the drive home flat broke will cure you of any of your dalliances with sub-par play.

I continue to enjoy all your blog entries, OD! Keep 'em coming!