JoelDeze
Posted by JoelDeze
May 18, 2016

Rushing Efficiency Rating Difference

Before I dive into the numbers I would like to start with a few concepts so that you can better absorb the material.

By now, everyone knows that the NFL is primarily a passing league with a 7 on 7 game format. You have probably seen or heard of discussions taking place regarding PER (Pass Efficiency Ratings) or even PERD (Pass Efficiency Rating Difference). There are even terms like Pass Efficiency Rating Offense and Pass Efficiency Rating Defense.

Breaking it down into the simplest form, every team has a passing efficiency rating while on offense. The greater the number the more efficient the offensive passing game is performing. Likewise, every team has a passing efficiency rating while on defense. The lower the number the more efficient the passing defense is performing. If you take a team's passing efficiency rating on offense and subtract the passing efficiency rating on defense you achieve a passing efficiency rating difference. Generally speaking, a team that has a greater difference between the two is playing extremely well on both sides of the ball for and against the passing game. NFL Teams with high passing efficiency rating difference numbers tend to become playoff caliber teams at the end of the season.

When performing regression analysis on many different aspects of football it is important to understand how things work when comparing NFL to College. For instance, would you believe that rushing is far more impactful on probability in college than it is in the NFL? Sure, you probably could figure that one out by watching the games. But, would you believe that rushing is more impactful on probability in college than passing is in college? Whoa! Let's take a step back a second. Am I saying that Rushing is much more important than passing in college? Yes I am, but by only a slim margin.

Most stats related to football have been around a long time. Unfortunately, Rushing Efficiency Rating is not something that is easy to define. It takes a lot of work and a lot of sampling to understand. Many years ago I worked very hard to create a formula for rushing efficiency rating, which is used for College and NFL. It contained the same principles as pass efficiency ratings and was measured and refined over years of sampling and study.

The formula for college (NFL is not shown):



ab (adjusted base)
atf (adjusted touchdowns/fumbles)
rer (rushing efficiency rating)
y (yards)
c (carries)
my( min yards)
td (touchdowns)
f (fumbles)
RERD (Rushing Efficiency Rating Difference)

In terms of wins and losses over the last three years, RERD accounts for 63.93% of all wins in college football. PERD accounts for 62.45% of all wins in college football. Rushing is 1.48% more impactful on win contribution in college.

In the NFL, RERD only accounts for 50.37% of all wins compared to PERD accounting for 59.34% of all wins.

In terms of passing and rushing, the college game is balanced whereas the NFL game is not.

Below are the Top 25 RERD based teams for College at the end of 2015:

RnkNameOffenseDefenseDIFF
1Ga Southern101.06841.25459.814
2Ohio State89.01130.79358.218
3Alabama68.53315.99752.536
4LSU97.74846.79650.952
5Houston84.71634.84349.873
6Ole Miss79.00729.53849.469
7Navy93.79445.89147.903
8Florida State81.5436.3745.17
9Toledo74.67733.39141.286
10Baylor82.33341.93140.402
11Boise State74.91537.42137.494
12Iowa72.13135.66436.467
13LA Tech74.60238.95235.65
14North Carolina97.05964.49332.566
15San Diego State66.29133.76132.53
16Oklahoma73.7741.74832.022
17Washington66.87135.39831.473
18W Kentucky76.57446.26930.305
19Boston College45.01115.0529.961
20New Mexico84.00655.83228.174
21Clemson68.63540.64827.987
22Georgia64.8136.95427.856
23Louisville59.59931.7527.849
24Appalachian St68.22840.94227.286
25Southern Miss74.6647.52427.136


When looking at the teams that stand out on this list I have to take a little pride (being from the Boston area) seeing Boston College at #19 on the list. They played phenomenal defense last year but their offensive play resembled that of an average high school football team.

Georgia Southern is a powerhouse running team. If you've never watched them play you need to watch them closely. If you watched them play versus Georgia last year it was a great game to watch. They almost pulled it out in overtime and ran for more than 230 yards against an SEC defense.

While Alabama had a powerhouse running game all year and became the National Champions, it was Houston that stood out the most for me on this list. They systematically dismantled FSU in the Peach Bowl last year 38-24. They rushed for 187 yards and limited FSU to 16 net rushing yards.

Also, in case you were wondering who the worst RERD team was in College last year. It was (drum roll please):

-- 128. Kansas (Off of 26.773) (Def of 89.49) for a net RERD of -62.717.

So, the moral of this story is don't negate the strength of Rushing Efficiency Rating Difference when watching College Football next year. It is slightly higher than scoring offense and passing efficiency rating difference when measuring wins.

Take care.

Joel D.

JoelDeze
Posted by JoelDeze
May 11, 2016

Sports Wagering with Nevada Senate Bill 443

Out of State Gambling

I wanted to talk about Nevada Senate Bill 443 which was passed last year and met with a warm reception.

The purpose of the Bill is to allow Entity betting. Before I get into why this is so beneficial, let me explain how things normally work (from an out of state betting perspective).

If you are into sports wagering and you have 5 friends that are all into the same thing, you would think it would be as easy as sending a rotation of people to Vegas and have them wager on your favorite sports contests. Unfortunately, it's never that easy. In Nevada it is illegal to participate in messenger betting where person(s) send others to wager on behalf of themselves or a group. When our group decided to go to Vegas a few years ago we had to form an LLC and assign everyone involved with a percentage interest in order to legally wager as a group. This allowed anyone to trek to Vegas and it also allowed the LLC to take on the bulk of the end of year taxes from gambling. However, we also had to work with every book and provide introductions as well as open accounts formally with all of them.

One of the other issues with out of state gambling is that you cannot communicate electronically with anyone in Vegas (for purposes of wagering) without violating the electronic communications act. This is only true if you are attempting to communicate from out of state. So, the person that goes to Vegas needs to have intimate knowledge of many facets, including real time MLs and ATSs at all of the nearby books, limit settings and even placement timings. This is a huge hassle for out of state gamers.

So, how does Bill 443 help with some of this?

Here's what is mentioned in the law:

  • Each sports betting entity must register with Nevada’s Secretary of State.
  • The entity must disclose what is being wagered on to its investors, which will happen after each wagered-on event begins.
  • Each investor must submit their name, address, proof of identity by a government-issued ID, and tax information to the betting entity. The entity is then required to disclose that information to Nevada regulators.
  • Bettors have no say as to what is being bet on.
  • Investors must be age 21 or or older.
  • It is up to each Nevada sports books discretion to accept or not accept wagers from betting entities.


If you are out of state, this requires you to initially travel to Vegas and open a bank account for the Entity. You need to pay $1,000 for the registration fee and the annual renewal fee is $500. Each of the Entity's equity ownership has to provide identification as well.

Enter Investment Groups

As an entity you can now form sports investment pools and have investors. CG Technology, formerly known as Cantor Gaming, allows entity betting. The pools can house members that are not based in the United States. Essentially, if you wanted, you could have a 5,000 member investment pool at $500 minimum per person. This would give you a starting Capital of $2.5 million to wager in Vegas. You could determine payouts on a monthly or quarterly basis, allow buy-in or buy-out on capital gains, and the Entity management would determine how wagers occur.

With a minimum of $50,000 our group first projected $1.2 million in football for our first year. This involved an 40%/50%/60%/70%/80%/80%/80%/etc. capital at risk model beginning in week 4. Entity Investment Groups change the entire landscape for capital at risk. The only major difference is instead of pushing a 200% to 500% ROI as a true independent, you move to a 15% - 30% ROI with limited risk.

This will be a game changer for Nevada and for people that live too far away to make the trek to Vegas in order to place sports wagers.

We currently do not have an Entity Investment Group and probably will not form one for several years. Our stance is if we can achieve greater than a 30% ROI why form a large investment group? We've also spent a lot of time working with many of the core books and don't feel it's necessary for us to move into this area. But, it may be very beneficial to the average gaming group that has 20 or so friends that like to gamble out of state on sports contests.

I hope this information helps.

Comments

ernestmiddle
ernestmiddle May 11, 2016

only 30 % ROI with 93% winners ? ? ?

JoelDeze
JoelDeze May 12, 2016

No. We are between 200% and 500% ROI, depending on how much CAR (Capital at Risk) we want to take. Unfortunately, if we went to an Entity Investment option using this Bill, and depending on how many investors we had, we would have to greatly limit our CAR because at that point we would be managing other peoples' money.

And, why shake your head at a 30% ROI when very few people could ever attain that in the Stock Market.

You also forget that Vegas doesn't like it when anyone achieves even 70-80% of their wager marks. If you do that consistently they set limits per wager. Try wagering $50k a week in football across all major books. You'll understand how difficult it is to do this on a weekly basis. Anyone might get away with it once or twice, but 3 or 4 weeks in and here come the limits.