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dwheatley's Blog

Hawaii vacation - part 2November 10th, 2011 at 10:58:04 am
Other Activities


Pearl Harbor

Everyone in my family wanted to go to Pearl Harbor, so we stopped in on the way north (I keep typing it as harbour, but I'll respect the American spelling here). The wizard's review is extensive, I will add that a lot of it is free, such as the museum and trip to the USS Arizona. Unfortunately, the navy canceled the boat trip to the Arizona due to inclement weather. It didn't seem so bad, but what can you do...

We got there at 9:30 (on a Tuesday I think) and we were given a 10:45 ticket for the movie, which was just enough time to see the museum. We chatted with some family members of vets, overall a good experience. Don't miss.

Diamond Head

We also climbed Diamond Head. A short but steep climb along somewhat rocky terrain. Fee to park is $5 per car, or $1 per person to walk in. The hike from outside to the parking lot looked boring, I would park, even with a small crowd.

At the summit, there was a park ranger type (maybe not actually a ranger) hawking tours. There were dozens of people, pretty crowded. The hike is not very well shaded, so it got hot. Most people can make it, given enough time. Easy enough to jog if you are in good shape.

Dole Pineapple Pavilion

We did the maze. I likes mazes. No, I love mazes. My sister and I traveled together, almost never splitting up, and got all 8 stations in 50 minutes. The standing record was 8 minutes. What? You would have to know exactly where they all were, and probably run through the holes in the maze. They have tried to repair some, but others are almost too tempting to ignore. 8 minutes... no way.

It helped knowing the expansion only had 2 stations. The maze does cost money ($6) I think, but there was no attendant when we showed up. So... free maze! There's a coupon in a book somewhere for 2 for 1 admission, don't miss that. Or the maze.

Waiamea Valley Park

Opposite Waiamea beach is this gorgeous park we nicknamed Jurassic Park, as I sweat parts of it were shot there. It is an archeological site for an ancient Hawaiian village, transformed into a botanical garden and swimming hole. $15 per person to enter, half price children and seniors (60+).

There is as expansive garden featuring tropical plants from all over the world. Over 1000 type of trees, plants and flowers, mostly leafy plants. It is about 3/4 a mile long, with multiple side paths. Easily could take 2-3 hours to wander the paths alone.

Along the valley there are remnants of the village, with information signs and the occasional guide to teach you more about the ancient way of life and culture. That was pretty interesting, but the huge sprawling plants clearly dominate the place.

At the top is a waterfall + pond you can swim in, no extra charge. Bring your bathing suits! The lifeguard gives you a brief safety warning (the undertow can be strong, don't actually swim in the waterfall for fear of getting bonked on the head by logs, etc.) and off you go. The water was cold and reddish brown. Cold because it's a river (but not cold by Canadian standards, maybe ~70 degrees), reddish-brown because of the iron-oxide present in the ground all along the north shore. It was actually closed for swimming the day before due to heavy rains, so time your trip. On the other hand, I have read that if it doesn't rain for a while, the waterfall turns clear. The current was strong, it would be very difficult to physically get to the waterfall at the rate it was moving water. Overall, fun times.

Food

Nui's Thai food exists! It is in the middle of nowhere, and is as delicious as the wizard made it sound. There are TWO picnic tables, under a tent. Moving on up!

For other food options, I strongly recommend finding some Ahi Poke at a grocery store like Foodland, or some of the chuck wagons. It is Ahi tuna sashimi, mixed with some garlic, or onions, or sauce, to make a sort of sashimi salad. If you like tuna, dare to try the Poke (pronounced pokey, I think it refers to the 'salad' style, because you can get mussel poke).

Track down the Impossibles Pizza wagon on the north shore. The pizza is one size only, and doesn't fit in the box. Wowzers. Try Kalua Pig, it's some kind of super bacon ball on a pizza. I heard that the wagon is only allowed to stay in one place for about ~30 minutes, but I think it cheats. They will also tell you a custom pizza will take a long time, in order to get you to order a pepperoni or cheese pizza. Do not be deceived! We hummed and hawed, ordered a custom anyway, and were told it would be 20 minutes. Secret's out.

Hawaii vacation - part 1November 8th, 2011 at 6:41:02 pm
I went to the island of Oahu in Hawaii (Oct 30 - Nov 7) for a destination wedding. The wizard's review of Oahu was very useful for planning my trip, so I thought I would give my own brief review as an addendum. Hope you find it interesting.

I stayed with my family in Waikiki for two nights, then on the north shore for 5 nights. I stayed further north-east than the wizard did, near Waiamea bay, in a beach house. Great for families.

The weather was unpredictable. Clouds would form out of the blue sky, then rain on us for brief periods (5-20 minutes), then disappear. Others would roll in over the mountains without any morning. When out, the sun was hot. Overall, a great experience.

Beaches & Surfing


The Kamehameha Highway that runs from Haleiwa north-east through Waiamea is a great spot for beaches and surfing. I nicknamed it surfer's highway. The highway was getting very crowded by the end of my stay, as many surfers were coming in to town for a big competition. I was told that a year or two ago 20,000 people crowded the north shore to watch the 30+ foot waves and surfers. When I was there, the surfers were riding ~10 foot waves

Ke Iki

This is where the wedding was. It's just north of Pupukea Beach Park. Bad shorebreak, thus hard to swim or boogie board. Great for a long stroll and watching big waves slam the beach. The people least afraid of shore break are 10 year old Hawaiian girls. Unbelievable.

Shark's Cove

Shark's Cove is not so much a beach as good snorkeling grounds. Conditions were not great when I went. Lots of waves and a little murky. Almost dangerous at times. I'll trust the wizard did indeed have a good time, but I had much better snorkeling at Hanauma Bay Beach Park.

Waiamea Bay

Very pretty horseshoe beach with mountains rising on either side. Better for swimming, but the shorebreak can still be rough. My uncle sprained his hamstring and was carried off the beach in a stretcher. He's ok now. Kids do jump off the rocks at the one end of the beach, that's fun to watch but crazy to try.

Haleiwa

I went surfing at Haleiwa twice. The first was for a lesson with Uncle Bryan's company, called Sunset Surratt Surf School. My sister and I had a semi-private lesson (not specifically requested) that lasted over 2 hours for $80 each. This included the boards & rash guards (special tight shirts you wear to prevent sun burn an board rash). Do NOT go surfing without a rash guard. My cousins are living testament to the owwww.

The surf lesson is great for a number of reasons. They give you beach training so you know what to do when you are there. Then the guy tows you around with his toe on your board (he 'toes' you around?) so you don't have to much paddling. Paddling is hard, and your arms will turn to jelly if you don't have training or breaks. Once you are out there, he tells you which waves to go for, then pushes you into them, then coaches you when to stand up. You will catch waves, and ride them a long way if you get a good lesson. If you don't... good luck!

We went out a second time a few days later with just a board rental (~$20 per person, including rash guard). It was tiring, but the lessons worked. My sister and I both did great without getting pushed. So much fun.

Hanauma Bay Beach Park

Best snorkeling ever. Huge fish (2 - 3 feet), some big schools, ok coral. I found a sea turtle (!) eating the reef near the ledge out to sea. Awesome. Downsides: $7.50 per person, plus rentals. Rentals cost $5 (mask) - $12 (full set with flippers), depending on what you want. Deposit required, so you need a credit card or extra cash ($30 I think). Lockers are $7. And you need to watch a weird, boring at times, amusing at others, information video. That takes 9 minutes, only running every 15. It took us over 30 minutes to get to the beach. Once there: awesome.

Waikiki

Waikiki is crowded. Lots of places to rent stuff. Easiest place to swim that I went to.

Comments
Ayecarumba
November 9th, 2011 at 10:32:05 am
Thanks for this dwheatley. I enjoyed it. Are there lockers at all the beaches? I always wondered what the surfers did with their cell phones and car alarm key bobs while they are out on the water so far from the beach.

Did you get a chance to tour the USS Missouri at Pearl Harbor? I highly recommend it to everyone who is going to Oahu.
1BB
November 9th, 2011 at 1:12:41 pm
Your great report has me thinking about planning a trip. I like Oahu and Waikiki in particular and my wife loves Maui. Whenever we visit we split our time between the two.
Nareed
November 9th, 2011 at 2:05:52 pm
Did you get any coffee?
Wizard
November 9th, 2011 at 8:45:27 pm
I enjoyed your report and thanks for mentioning mine. The conditions were wonderful when I went to Sharks Cove. I never saw any lockers at the state beaches. What surfers probably do is leave all their valuable stuff in their and just carry a car key on them. Next time I go to Oahu I'll follow your advice and rent a surf board. I had a surfing lesson Santa Barbara a couple years ago, hopefully that will help.
dwheatley
November 10th, 2011 at 11:02:42 am
Surfers don't have valuables. They have surf boards, which come with them. I am pretty serious about that.

More seriously... A lot of people come in groups, and leave spotters on the beach. This iss good for taking pictures, guarding valuables, and calling the lifeguards if something goes wrong.

I didn't see any lockers anywhere except for Hanauma (which is pronounced BOTH ways: Ha-na-u-ma or Ha-now-ma, the locals can't seem to decide. Most call it Ha-now-ma)
dwheatley
November 10th, 2011 at 11:06:32 am
About surfing at Haleiwa, this particular cove was very nice for beginner surfing, right at the north end of the beach. There is a jetty on the right side. All surfing areas have places where the waves come in, and riptides where the water goes out. Smart surfers learn these areas, and paddle out on the riptides. This saves energy and gets you out of the way of the surfers. It is much better to paddle on an angle out to the riptide, then turn to the ocean to get back to your spot to catch waves. You know you found it if the waves don't seem to crash and you are moving out without paddling. At haleiwa, it goes to the right along the jetty. Easy to find.

Also, we saw sea turtles there. Taking a break to watch sea turtles from your board is good surfing.

Odds of breaking even or better at Craps - Pass LineAugust 17th, 2011 at 8:12:43 am
Suppose you make a prop/side bet with someone at a craps table that you can finish even or up over a certain # of pass line bets.

[Lifted from a post I made]

For a small # of trials, there is a fair chance of breaking even in a -EV game by flat betting. If you win the side bet by finishing even or ahead, then the side bet is +EV. Your advantage comes from the chance of breaking even.

As the # of trials increases, the chance of breaking even decreases, and eventually your chance of finishing even or ahead drops below 50%.

Consult table below, which shows the probability of finishing even or up after N trials on the pass line (f=244/495). Your bet is +EV up to 70 pass lines.

20 0.563020692
22 0.557764082
24 0.553065187
26 0.548820611
28 0.544952395
30 0.541400455
32 0.538117601
34 0.535066167
36 0.53221565
38 0.529541038
40 0.527021588
42 0.524639929
44 0.522381376
46 0.520233417
48 0.518185311
50 0.516227772
52 0.514352726
54 0.512553111
56 0.510822715
58 0.509156051
60 0.507548246
62 0.505994959
64 0.504492303
66 0.503036786
68 0.501625262
70 0.500254886
72 0.498923075
74 0.497627482
76 0.496365965
78 0.495136565
80 0.493937485

Comments
odiousgambit
August 17th, 2011 at 8:27:55 am
as I mentioned recently, you can quickly prove this to yourself by looking at all the possible the outcomes of 2 bets, then 4 bets, etc, with the assumption that the chance of a win is roughly equal to that of a loss.

Thanks for doing the hard work!
7craps
August 17th, 2011 at 5:19:24 pm
Very nice job.
The side bet is very cool. I am going to use it this weekend.

In my Blog for 30 pass line decisions I also added a table up to 200 rolls.
keep up the good work.
FleaStiff
August 17th, 2011 at 5:22:39 pm
Uh,,, what am I missing?
The bet is that you will go "x" number of line bets and your net result after a pre-determined "x" bets will be either a net gain or "no loss".
Now what are the chances for the shooter? What are the chances for everyone else at the table?

They are all at a negative expectation for each line bet made and the casino books that bet, but if its a player who books your bet, you have either a positive or neutral expectation?
odiousgambit
August 18th, 2011 at 5:13:54 am
Quote:
Uh,,, what am I missing?
Now what are the chances for the shooter? What are the chances for everyone else at the table?


I think you are missing that this is a side bet between players. For the line bet, the shooter or anybody else is looking at negative expectation because when you break even, you don't gain anything by it and your losses in the long run outweigh your wins.

Quote:
if its a player who books your bet, you have either a positive or neutral expectation?


If someone takes your action on the side bet, you have positve expectation as long as he fail to insist on enough trials. Here is the exercise to prove it:

you propose a side bet that you will break even or better with 2 pass line bets. This would be a bad idea as it should highlight how much advantage you have. For this small trial, that the odds of winning one bet is something like 49.5% instead of 50% is not much of a factor. So,
*roughly 25% chance you win both bets, 1 win + 1 win
*roughly 25% win the first, lose the second, 1 win + 1 loss= break even
*roughly 25% lose the first bet, win the second, 1 win + 1 loss= break even
*roughly 25% lose both, 1 loss + 1 loss

roughly 75% chance you win or break even. Get enough action on this and you don't have to work for a living.
increase the number of trials and the advantage wanes. However, another player is likely to either have no intuition that something like 20 trials is not enough, even if his intuition guides him that a sufficient number of trials is what he needs to win.

I believe it was you who mentioned before other players don't want to be bugged by side bets at Craps. I have one idea I might play out, though, stay tuned for my trip report in about 10 days.

 

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