Fire bet: Calculating the odds.

Excellent work as always Wizard. Thank you for sharing your work.

So much easier to understand all the possible states when one can see them all.

The formula in the new book on page 512(for those that have it):
The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling by Stwart N. Ethier

that the Wizard refers to on his WoO site:http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps//appendix4.html#firebet

Is mind bending to me, but it also solves the answers with one formula.
To me it all shows the cool thing about math.
Most questions can be solved in different ways, while arriving at the exact same answer.

when they put the fire bet in where i deal they told us the house advantage was about 21%......it was put in on a three month trial basis.....the floor had to calculate on paper every win and loss...the three month trial lasted 5 days and the bet became a permanent fixture.

So what are the taxes taken out of a six point hit? That is, bet the fire for $5, hit it, how much do I really collect?

I think if you are a US citizen they wouldn't withhold anything, but you would get a W2G form.

Quote: Wizard

I think if you are a US citizen they wouldn't withhold anything, but you would get a W2G form.

I do know in MS and LA they take something, so I'm assuming a state tax. Just wondering how much on $5000. Anybody??

Quote: DeMango

I do know in MS and LA they take something, so I'm assuming a state tax. Just wondering how much on $5000. Anybody??

I have said this a couple of times, and only speak from personal experience. They start withholding at exactly 5000 and it was 28% federal and sometimes the state takes some too. Because the net win on a fire is actually only 4995, maybe they'd let you slide. But I've had cashiers do different things. For example, I've won 1300 on a 900 pari-mutual ticket, but they still made me sign, because they said that technically I won on a 2 dollar ticket, and lost on 449 other 2 dollar tickets that just happened to be on the same paper. But then they put the price of my bet as $2, and not 900. So I just save all of my losing tickets, and if I get audited, I'll show them all.

We are really getting mixed answers here. One says 28% Federal, Wiz says just a W2G, others, down south, have mentioned state tax only. Still no definitive answer!

And lets make it more complicated. The final point is 4. You lay the 4 for $2000. Your win will be either $3000 or $2200 after vig. No tax on the latter (only a 250 for 1 payout) On the $3000 win do you pay taxes on $3000 or $5000?? Where is a good tax man when you need him??

I will be in Mississippi next week, I'll play some with Loveman's minions and will ask a TGS there for the local poop. Last week I forgot once to bet the sob and you just know I made 5 points. I can't even describe how sick to my stomach I was.....

I think I may have been wrong before. If the gross payout is OVER $5000 and is a 300-1 longshort or more, then I think they withhold 28% in taxes.

When my wife hit a straight flush and won $12,000 at Let It Ride a few years back, she got a W2-G on the bonus bet, but not on the basic bet. Pit boss said it was because the bonus bet paid over X:1, the basic bet was under. But nothing was withheld. That was at Foxwoods. (I forget what the 'X' was.)

It sounds like we're going to have trouble getting a definitive answer. Maybe different casinos, or at least different states, have different rules.

Bottom line: Does it really matter?

Unless you win more than you can legitimately claim as losses, you're not going to pay tax, and will get back anything they withhold. Oh, sure, I'd rather they didn't withhold anything if I'm just gonna get it back, but...

I was playing poker recently at one of the Stations casinos when the "Jumbo Bad Beat" hit. That's a shared bad beat among all Stations properties (I think four-of-a-kind 8888 or higher has to be beaten. The level of the four-of-a-kind drops as the progressive gets higher). The jackpot was about $152k when it hit. Everyone at *every* property had to fill out a form with our name/address/SSN to get a share. My share was about $250.

I don't like that one bit!

--Dorothy