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The Anti-Martingale Strategy
| February 2nd, 2012 at 11:34:37 AM permalink | |
| SanchoPanza Member since: May 10, 2010 Threads: 24 Posts: 735 |
It could have something to do with the number 8 being so lucky in Chinese culture. |
| February 2nd, 2012 at 11:49:57 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5727 | Neither do I. Then again, I don't understand ANYONE's fascination with slots, Big Six, Casino War, or any side bet. But there are plenty of people that play those games. Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| February 2nd, 2012 at 12:38:36 PM permalink | |
| mustangsally Member since: Mar 29, 2011 Threads: 5 Posts: 170 | Chinese Bac players, or Asian Bac players actually, I am one, do not "grind away" in Baccarat. We follow "roads" as a trigger to bet BIG! We bet for streaks to continue. Positive betting progressions. Banker streaks. Most cuss out the dealer if the Player has more and or longer streaks than the Banker during a shoe. You a white Bac player betting for a Player win streak to continue, you will get some evil stares and some non-English words fired at you by us Asians. It is actually very entertaining to watch. But do not tell my Mom about this. I Heart Vi Hart |
| February 2nd, 2012 at 12:57:31 PM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Jun 10, 2010 Threads: 34 Posts: 1215 | Yay!! Wheels on the ground at McCarran. |
| February 8th, 2012 at 3:54:46 AM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Jun 10, 2010 Threads: 34 Posts: 1215 | Boo! wheels on the ground at JFK. |
| February 8th, 2012 at 8:20:52 AM permalink | |
| pacomartin Member since: Jan 14, 2010 Threads: 547 Posts: 6211 |
Well, since you can do the calculations, given that Main Street Station has 20X odds on a minimum of $5 bet in craps, what is the probability that you will double $2000 before going bankrupt? Do it for pass and don't pass. Now do the same thing for baccarat, with a maximum bet of $100 (you can bet on banker and nobody will root for the player). Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear |
| April 4th, 2012 at 7:09:22 PM permalink | |
| mustangsally Member since: Mar 29, 2011 Threads: 5 Posts: 170 |
added: I used 3 methods to find the probability of doubling a $2000 bankroll before ruin. 1. simulation 2. RoR formula (exponential method) RoR formulas 3. even-money equivalents: a concept by Peter Griffin so the simple Gambler's Ruin formula can be used. 50-50 and Even-Money Equivalent Bets Pass Line $5 and 20X Odds avg bet = 71.67 ev = -0.07 ((-7/495)*$5) sd = 104.0 1. Sim Win goal was met . . . = 48.417% of the time ( 484167) 2. RoR formula (Blackjack Attack) Prob of success 49.8693% 3. RoR even-money equivalents: Prob of success 49.3464% Bet: 104.0044191 Prob of winning: 0.499660077 Don't Pass Line $5 and 20X Odds (4&10 $200 to win $100, 5&9 $150 to win $100, 6&8 $120 to win $100) avg bet = $105.00 ev = -0.07 sd = 104.0 1. Sim Win goal was met . . . = 48.696% of the time ( 486958) 2. RoR formula (Blackjack Attack) Prob of success 49.8693% 3. RoR even-money equivalents: Prob of success 49.3464% Bet: 104.0044191 Prob of winning: 0.499660077
Banker Bet in Baccarat avg bet = 100 ev = -$1.17 sd = $97.49 1. Sim Win goal was met . . . = 38.13% of the time 2. RoR formula (Blackjack Attack) Prob of success 37.9415% 3. RoR even-money equivalents: Prob of success 37.9426% Bet: $97.50 Prob of winning: 0.49400436 note: The higher the sd without the ev increasing (line bets with high odds multiples) is what causes the RoR formula results to increase their error rates next to the fact that the formulas do not take into consideration overshooting barriers and high average bets to low win goals. But they are very close within 5 to 10%. I Heart Vi Hart |
| April 5th, 2012 at 8:41:16 AM permalink | |
| teddys Member since: Nov 14, 2009 Threads: 100 Posts: 2725 | Can you summarize what the above results mean? They look interesting but I cannot parse them. "If you can make one heap of all your winnings / And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss / And lose, and start again at your beginnings / And never breathe a word about your loss..." -Rudyard Kipling |
| April 5th, 2012 at 11:35:50 AM permalink | |
| mustangsally Member since: Mar 29, 2011 Threads: 5 Posts: 170 | My BF asked me this question recently, the chances of winning big with small bets, large odds and small bankrolls. At first, I thought almost impossible to win any kind of money. But simulations and RoR formulas show a different, and surprising story, at least to me. Simulation results (100,000 players) parameters: $2000 bankroll $5 pass line bet 100X odss bet Hit Win goal or bust Win goal to quit session= 500 Win goal was met . . . = 71.652% of the time ( 71652) Win goal to quit session= 1,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 59.565% of the time ( 59565) Win goal to quit session= 2,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 44.909% of the time ( 44909) Win goal to quit session= 5,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 26.192% of the time ( 26192) Win goal to quit session= 10,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 15.419% of the time ( 15419) Win goal to quit session= 20,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 8.402% of the time ( 8402) Win goal to quit session= 50,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 3.680% of the time ( 3680) Win goal to quit session= 100,000.00 Win goal was met . . . = 1.729% of the time ( 1729) About 14% of the players busted out by 30 rolls About 47% of the players busted out by 100 rolls My old computer died, so I am setting up my new one. There went my raise $$$. I Heart Vi Hart |
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