prozema
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:01:23 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.



Great. Now, thanks to PBS I have to think about how genghis khan works into this mess.

I don't want to sound cocky... But I suppose the most you could say is that they framed the question better than I did. I don't see an answer to the probably analysis. The guy did mention spatial relationships for almost a half second... :-)
prozema
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:12:26 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mnYSMhR3jCI

I hear you about feeling original hoping you are the first after a google search. I did a google search one time with no suggestions but can't remember what it was.



Hold on a sec... He's getting 2^40 (40 generations ago) at 450 B.C. (2500 years ago). I'm getting 2^50 (50 generations ago) at 500 A.D.

I've had a few burbons tonight... What math did I do wrong?

If he's assuming 62 years between generations, I have concerns with that assumption.
prozema
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:19:38 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


Another flaw in your theory is generations back then were more like 15 years apart, not 30. Women had children as soon as they were able to. By thirty, they were grandmothers.



I picked 30 years to be conservative. I have kids, so I would like to think it's less probable my wife and I are related. :-)

Changing the assumption to 15 years would increase probably if I'm thinking about this right.

I'm trying to get a grip on how I would determine how much of a difference a change in that assumption would make.

Does that make sense?
prozema
prozema
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June 16th, 2017 at 9:22:02 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

KISS!!!



Please do not take offense, but if I kept it simple I'd just sit down at any random slot machine and spin hoping for the best. That's not what I do.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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June 17th, 2017 at 2:51:31 AM permalink
I don't think this is a math problem. It's an evolution problem. My guess is that people evolved in different areas of Earth. If that's the case, then everyone in the world is probably not related.
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 17th, 2017 at 9:59:01 AM permalink
I think this was asked about in a Straight Dope column once. I think the way the question was phrased is how many generations back would you maximize the number of distinct ancestors.

In my opinion, any two people are related if you go back far enough.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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June 17th, 2017 at 11:36:06 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



In my opinion, any two people are related if you go back far enough.

Or you can just travel to West Virginia.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MaxPen
MaxPen
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June 18th, 2017 at 12:21:34 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Or you can just travel to West Virginia.



I heard there is 1 in 1.1 chance that people in WV are related. Sounds about right. How many last names are there in WV?

billryan
billryan 
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June 18th, 2017 at 1:18:46 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

Please do not take offense, but if I kept it simple I'd just sit down at any random slot machine and spin hoping for the best. That's not what I do.




Think about this. In the British Isles, it was very rare for people to leave their villages, except to make the big journey to America. Things barely changed, lifestyle wise, for hundreds of years. A man born in a village of a few hundred would marry, have children and die. His children would marry someone from that village, have children and die. How long before everyone in the village is related to everyone else. These people had no transportation. How far can a man go, after working in a field or a mine to court a woman? Even if he walked two hours in each direction, that's about a seven mile radius. Poor people didn't have horses or carriages. They walked, until bicycles came along. With a bike, a man could venture maybe as far as 10 or 15 miles to find a wife.
My family comes from a rural area in Ireland. Same rules applied. Start going through geneology and you'll find my Fathers Uncle Mike is my Mothers cousin and that Aunt Mary on my moms side married Uncle Andrew on my Dads side and sometimes Aunt Ann on my moms side seems to have married Uncle Bill, who also is on my moms side of the family.
This is what happens when people produce large families in relatively small areas.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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June 18th, 2017 at 2:03:32 AM permalink
I saw in West Virginia a guy drive his riding mower to the gas station to get gas, filled up at the pump.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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