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Rebating losses = Player advantage?

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May 25th, 2011 at 8:21:35 AM permalink
Ike
Member since: Jan 13, 2011
Threads: 0
Posts: 41
Size of bet and length of session are pretty standard in determining table games comps based on theoretical loss at most if not all casinos.

Where things start to vary is the other factor in the comp formula, house edge. It goes without saying that you will receive less comps playing the pass line at most casinos than if you were to play numbers all day long in roulette. That said, the house edge applied to the comp formula may vary greatly from one casino to the next. One casino may rate all poker variations with the same house edge, while others may rate each variation closer to theoretical edge based on perfect play within each specific game. Unless you have people working in each casino, you will have a tough time figuring out how each casino determines table games comps.

Most casinos will only comp based on actual loss if you are a known player that they have a good feeling of how much money you will risk in the future. Joe Schmo will have a tough time strolling into the MGM, getting a player's card, losing $5,000 in an hour and getting anywhere close to 30-40% of his actual loss back. He will may get a room and a meal out of the deal if he's lucky, but that's probably it.
May 25th, 2011 at 8:41:34 AM permalink
dwheatley
Member since: Nov 16, 2009
Threads: 10
Posts: 550
You may be interested in these links over at WOO:

Ask the Wizard about Rebates
Academic Paper
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
May 25th, 2011 at 8:54:53 AM permalink
gofaster87
Member since: Mar 19, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 445
.....
May 25th, 2011 at 10:01:40 AM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Nov 9, 2009
Threads: 174
Posts: 2414
Quote: dwheatley
You may be interested in these links over at WOO:


Ask the Wizard about Rebates
Academic Paper

fixed links, thanks

PS: the WoO makes this statement I see, from the first link:

Quote:
In my opinion this is a very risky offer to make and a sharp player could easily abuse it and gain an advantage.
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." Mark Twain
May 25th, 2011 at 1:26:43 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 313
Posts: 6783
I'm going to make an "ask the wizard" question about of this. For now, I think he was milking the 20% rebate on losses the article mentioned, as odios speculated. A 20% rebate in a low house edge game like blackjack is very powerful, and not difficult to exploit.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
May 25th, 2011 at 4:34:04 PM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 547
Posts: 6210
Quote: Wizard
I'm going to make an "ask the wizard" question about of this. For now, I think he was milking the 20% rebate on losses the article mentioned, as odios speculated. A 20% rebate in a low house edge game like blackjack is very powerful, and not difficult to exploit.


When I read that article, frankly, I just didn't believe him. I think he was just lying. If the casinos were permitting $100K hands, and rebating losses up to 20% I would say they deserved to lose millions.

Under the assumption that Tropicana begin permitting the high stakes blackjack in November of 2010, it looks like the casino is still way ahead for the year. It is also possible that the same player lost several million at the Tropicana in previous months before his 12 hour $6 million winning spree.


Month Blackjack 6 month average
Jan-10 $2,255,091
Feb-10 $1,422,192
Mar-10 $1,442,870
Apr-10 $2,077,529
May-10 $2,038,401
Jun-10 $1,827,979 $1,844,010
Jul-10 $2,567,605 $1,896,096
Aug-10 $3,055,275 $2,168,277
Sep-10 $2,344,475 $2,318,544
Oct-10 $1,333,374 $2,194,518
Nov-10 $6,429,130 $2,926,306
Dec-10 $4,044,500 $3,295,727
Jan-11 $3,848,590 $3,509,224
Feb-11 $2,045,580 $3,340,942
Mar-11 $2,691,070 $3,398,707
Apr-11 -$1,862,827 $2,866,007


If we assume he had a $6 million bankroll, and he was betting $50K per hand. He quits until he either loses $1 million (and takes the 20% rebate) or until he wins $6 million (for that session, not for overall). If he loses he returns another day. The probability of him hitting the $6 million before going bankrupt are fairly high. Remember we don't know how he did overall, just that he won $6 million that one day. The casino had some big wins, especially November to January. Some of that might have been our guy.
Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear
May 25th, 2011 at 5:36:42 PM permalink
Ayecarumba
Member since: Nov 17, 2009
Threads: 113
Posts: 2047
Here is a 2010 article on, "Superhost" Steve Cyr, and the changing environment to get high rollers to his casinos. Note that he mentions giving chips "on the house" to players just for showing up, paying what amounts to an "appearance fee".

There is a mention of rebates, and it is clear that this is based on actual, not theoretical losses.
May 25th, 2011 at 7:42:14 PM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Nov 9, 2009
Threads: 174
Posts: 2414
Quote: Wizard
I'm going to make an "ask the wizard" question about of this. For now, I think he was milking the 20% rebate on losses the article mentioned, as odios speculated. A 20% rebate in a low house edge game like blackjack is very powerful, and not difficult to exploit.


excellent!
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." Mark Twain
May 27th, 2011 at 6:49:02 AM permalink
SanchoPanza
Member since: May 10, 2010
Threads: 24
Posts: 735
Quote: Ayecarumba
Here is a 2010 article on, "Superhost" Steve Cyr, and the changing environment to get high rollers to his casinos. Note that he mentions giving chips "on the house" to players just for showing up, paying what amounts to an "appearance fee". There is a mention of rebates, and it is clear that this is based on actual, not theoretical losses.

In a sense, that is like the cashback or match play or direct bets that the casinos send us ordinary schmendricks. It's just that the scale is different. But then, so are the luxury suites and the fantastic gourmet dinners and wines.
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Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard.
Here are my reasons why and my promise of support.