I've played craps 100's of times and in the rarest of instances have I seen a shooter hit 5 or more points before passing the dice. Typically, the shooter either 7's out before even hitting his number or he hits one pass and then 7's out before hitting his second number.
The more passes he makes the more likely it seems to be that he will eventually 7 out. We all know that he will eventually 7 out. The house has the edge and they know he will eventually 7 out.
The "prime time" only has a degree of certainty to it.Quote: JimmyMac
I like to play the Don't Pass side of the table. As I know the shooter will eventually 7 out and have to pass the dice, my goal is to simply get on the Don't Pass at the prime time before he does so.
If you were betting the don't side of the table and wanted to gain an advantage based on a series of passes, how many passes would you say you should wait until jumping in on the don't pass?
Thanks for all your help.
However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place $100 on the Don't Come.
If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of $10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another $100 on the Don't Pass.
If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my $100 and then place another $100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another $100 on the don't pass.
My loss limit per roller is $300. If I hit a $300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.
|Pass/Miss||relative freq||or less|
As a don't bettor you may like to know how often you can lose before that 7 out makes you a winner per each shooter.
The below table is from a 1 millon shooter WinCraps simulation.
It shows the "score" or result from a shooter.
either a natural winner or a point winner
M=miss a pass line lost on the come out roll or a 7out...
every shooter has at least 1 miss, that being a 7out
The highest result or "score" is 0-1 (0 pass/1 miss) 39.85% of the time. The 0-1 "score" happened twice as often as the next highest result.
2nd highest result or "score" is 1-1 (1 pass/1 miss)and 55% of the time the 1 pass was a point winner
3rd highest result or "score" is 2-1 (2 pass/1 miss)and 49% of the time the 2 pass was 1 point winner and 1 natural winner, 30% the 2 pass was 2 point winners.
So if you really want to "predict" what the current or next shooter will do and when he will 7out...
68.89% (2 out of 3 shooters) will have a "score" of:
Does that mean there is a 9.8% better chance that the shooter will not go 2-1 after they have gone 1-1? (19.4 - 9.6)
These are just probabilities of what can happen. Start writing down the "scores" and rolls of shooters, you will find that the math gets fairly close to actual outcomes the longer you observe them.
How about the table for the don't pass scores?
I would like to see that also if you have it available.
Since the one above is for the pass line.
|.||Score Per Shooter||Don't Pass||.|
|.||Win/Push/Lose||relative freq||or less|