Average Number of Points Hit Per Shooter in Craps

Quote: JimmyMac

I've played craps 100's of times and in the rarest of instances have I seen a shooter hit 5 or more points before passing the dice. Typically, the shooter either 7's out before even hitting his number or he hits one pass and then 7's out before hitting his second number.

83.5377% or 5 out of 6 shooters will do just that.
Hit 0 or 1 point then 7 out. New shooter

Quote: JimmyMac

The more passes he makes the more likely it seems to be that he will eventually 7 out. We all know that he will eventually 7 out. The house has the edge and they know he will eventually 7 out.

You are correct.
With every roll the shooter does get closer to a 7 out. We just do not know exactly when.

Well, I certainly can't say this is a good way to play at all. But, it seems to be working as I play the online craps game here on the Wizard's website.

I'm trying to simulate exactly how i would play at a real craps table. I'm not rolling in the dough, so I can't break the bank with my bets. I'm simply trying to have fun and win a little bit of money.

To keep from getting bored, I place $10 on the pass line and then play my odds. I'm only taking single odds, simply to make my bankroll last longer. i know that the house has 0 advantage on my odds bets, but in order to keep my bankroll for a longer session, i choose to only take single odds. My theory behind this is that I have just under a 50% chance of winning. I should be able to play for a while hopefully breaking even just by doing this and keep myself entertained.

However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place $100 on the Don't Come.

If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of $10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another $100 on the Don't Pass.

If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my $100 and then place another $100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another $100 on the don't pass.

My loss limit per roller is $300. If I hit a $300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.

I also have a stop win limit of $300. My goal is to play for a little while, win $300 and then take a break. When in Vegas, it is hard to simply stop gambling. But, my goal is to win multiple sessions and remove my winnings before the house gets their money back.

It seems to be working. I've been playing Wizard's craps game for the last week for a few hours each night and have had very good success. But, i'm wondering if Wizard's game is acurate because I'm actually winning at this strategy. I know that no strategy is supposed to work so I keep playing trying to lose and overall have had still a positive sessions.

Well, I certainly can't say this is a good way to play at all. But, it seems to be working as I play the online craps game here on the Wizard's website.

I'm trying to simulate exactly how i would play at a real craps table. I'm not rolling in the dough, so I can't break the bank with my bets. I'm simply trying to have fun and win a little bit of money.

To keep from getting bored, I place $10 on the pass line and then play my odds. I'm only taking single odds, simply to make my bankroll last longer. i know that the house has 0 advantage on my odds bets, but in order to keep my bankroll for a longer session, i choose to only take single odds. My theory behind this is that I have just under a 50% chance of winning. I should be able to play for a while hopefully breaking even just by doing this and keep myself entertained.

However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place $100 on the Don't Come.

If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of $10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another $100 on the Don't Pass.

If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my $100 and then place another $100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another $100 on the don't pass.

My loss limit per roller is $300. If I hit a $300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.

I also have a stop win limit of $300. My goal is to play for a little while, win $300 and then take a break. When in Vegas, it is hard to simply stop gambling. But, my goal is to win multiple sessions and remove my winnings before the house gets their money back.

It seems to be working. I've been playing Wizard's craps game for the last week for a few hours each night and have had very good success. But, i'm wondering if Wizard's game is acurate because I'm actually winning at this strategy. I know that no strategy is supposed to work so I keep playing trying to lose and overall have had still a positive sessions.

There is no reason why it wouldn't work in the short term. There is no reason why it won't work in the short term. There's MORE chance of it failing in the short term than working.

Quote: JimmyMac

However, after I hit a point, I stop playing the Pass Line and then I switch sides and place $100 on the Don't Come.

If I win, I simply go back to the Pass line bet of $10 and wait for the next point to be hit so I can place another $100 on the Don't Pass.

If on the Don't Pass, a 7 or 11 is rolled, I lose my $100 and then place another $100 bet up hoping to establish a point and then hope the shooter does not hit his point. If the shooter hits another point, I simply put another $100 on the don't pass.

My loss limit per roller is $300. If I hit a $300 loss, I wait for the next shooter.

Interesting style of play. Switching sides?
You should program WinCraps and see how often you "bust" and hit your win goal.

As a don't bettor you may like to know how often you can lose before that 7 out makes you a winner per each shooter.

The below table is from a 1 millon shooter WinCraps simulation.
It shows the "score" or result from a shooter.
P=pass
either a natural winner or a point winner
M=miss a pass line lost on the come out roll or a 7out...
every shooter has at least 1 miss, that being a 7out

The highest result or "score" is 0-1 (0 pass/1 miss) 39.85% of the time. The 0-1 "score" happened twice as often as the next highest result.
2nd highest result or "score" is 1-1 (1 pass/1 miss)and 55% of the time the 1 pass was a point winner
3rd highest result or "score" is 2-1 (2 pass/1 miss)and 49% of the time the 2 pass was 1 point winner and 1 natural winner, 30% the 2 pass was 2 point winners.

So if you really want to "predict" what the current or next shooter will do and when he will 7out...
Try this:

68.89% (2 out of 3 shooters) will have a "score" of:
0-1
1-1
or
2-1

Pass/Miss	relative freq	or less
0-1	0.398592216
1-1	0.194300663	0.592892879
2-1	0.096040798	0.688933677
3-1	0.047781188	0.736714865
1-2	0.043327786	0.780042651
0-2	0.042900259	0.82294291
2-2	0.032634531	0.855577441
4-1	0.023142422	0.878719863
3-2	0.021020058	0.899739921
4-2	0.013044651	0.912784572
5-1	0.011558487	0.92434306
5-2	0.00781254	0.932155599
1-3	0.007329028	0.939484627
2-3	0.007084727	0.946569353
3-3	0.005618921	0.952188275
6-1	0.005568025	0.9577563
0-3	0.004651897	0.962408196
6-2	0.004259997	0.966668194
4-3	0.004168384	0.970836578
5-3	0.002977417	0.973813995

Note:
0-2
0-3 "score" for example does not mean that the don't pass won 3 times. It could have. A 12 craps on the come out roll causes a miss but not a don't pass win. That would be a job for another simulation.
But it means the pass line LOST 3 times for that 1 shooter.
Too bad for the score of 0-5 for pass line bettors.

Quote: guido111

As a don't bettor you may like to know how often you can lose before that 7 out makes you a winner per each shooter.

The below table is from a 1 millon shooter WinCraps simulation.
It shows the "score" or result from a shooter.
P=pass
either a natural winner or a point winner
M=miss a pass line lost on the come out roll or a 7out...
every shooter has at least 1 miss, that being a 7out

The highest result or "score" is 0-1 (0 pass/1 miss) 39.85% of the time. The 0-1 "score" happened twice as often as the next highest result.
2nd highest result or "score" is 1-1 (1 pass/1 miss)and 55% of the time the 1 pass was a point winner
3rd highest result or "score" is 2-1 (2 pass/1 miss)and 49% of the time the 2 pass was 1 point winner and 1 natural winner, 30% the 2 pass was 2 point winners.

So if you really want to "predict" what the current or next shooter will do and when he will 7out...
Try this:

68.89% (2 out of 3 shooters) will have a "score" of:
0-1
1-1
or
2-1

I have never seen statistics like those before.

So I played a few games in WinCraps from actual dice rolls that I have tracked over the years.
Funny how those above 3 results show up for the average shooter.

I had a streak of 13 and another at 17 in a row where the shooters never do anything but those 3 results.
And the final results were within +/-2 after just a few hours of play.

Wow.. thanks so much for running that data for me.

Just to make sure I am reading this correctly, I am interpreting your data correctly?

68.9% of shooters will do 1 of the 3 below:

0-1 39.9%
Shooter will not his pass (either natural winner or hit their point)

1-1 19.4%
Shooter will hit 1 pass (either natural winner or hit their point)

2-1 9.6%
Shooter will hit 2 pass (either natural winner or hit their point)
out of this one 49% of the time the pass was a natural winner and hit thier point.
ouf of this one 30% of the time they hit 2 points.

I'm pretty sure it looks like I just copied our data again, but i want to make sure I am understanding it correctly.

Does that mean there is a 9.8% better chance that the shooter will not go 2-1 after they have gone 1-1? (19.4 - 9.6)

Thanks again!

Quote: JimmyMac

Does that mean there is a 9.8% better chance that the shooter will not go 2-1 after they have gone 1-1? (19.4 - 9.6)

Thanks again!

You have the math right.

But when a shooter goes 1-1:
meaning he made 1 pass and then a 7out. He is done. New Shooter.
anytime you see a 1 for the miss, that is a 7out.
example:1-1
2-1
3-1
4-1
all the above examples mean the shooter 7out after a certain number of pass line wins.

example: 2-2
means the shooter made 2 passes, and 2 misses, 1 being the ending 7out.

These are just probabilities of what can happen. Start writing down the "scores" and rolls of shooters, you will find that the math gets fairly close to actual outcomes the longer you observe them.

Quote: guido111

These are just probabilities of what can happen. Start writing down the "scores" and rolls of shooters, you will find that the math gets fairly close to actual outcomes the longer you observe them.

I have been doing just that while watching the baseball playoffs.

Seems when the first 3, 0-1,1-1 and 2-1 have not occurred within the last 5 shooters - watch out- here they come. You can get aggressive with your don't bets. Of course, bigger bets means larger wins and larger losses.

How about the table for the don't pass scores?
I would like to see that also if you have it available.
Since the one above is for the pass line.
Thank you

Quote: 7winner

How about the table for the don't pass scores?
I would like to see that also if you have it available.
Since the one above is for the pass line.
Thank you

OK, the 2 tables are pretty much the same.
I included the Bar12 for the don't pass.

Enjoy.
I dont know what you can do with it.


The below table is for the don't pass "scores" per shooter.
Pretty much the same as the pass line table.

example: 1-1-0
1 don't pass win for the shooter (7out)
1 Push for the Don't Pass (Bar 12 on the come out roll)
0 for 0 pass line wins

.	Score Per Shooter	Don't Pass	.
.	Win/Push/Lose	relative freq	or less
1	1-0-0	0.395001909	.
2	1-0-1	0.195694109	0.590696017
3	1-0-2	0.097498409	0.688194427
4	1-0-3	0.046708233	0.734902659
5	2-0-0	0.033052551	0.767955211
6	2-0-1	0.032543581	0.800498791
7	1-0-4	0.023789286	0.824288077
8	2-0-2	0.023692582	0.847980659
9	2-0-3	0.015538873	0.863519532
10	1-0-5	0.011507825	0.875027357
11	1-1-0	0.010779997	0.885807355
12	1-1-1	0.010505153	0.896312508
13	2-0-4	0.01004199	0.906354498
14	1-1-2	0.007889044	0.914243542
15	2-0-5	0.005588497	0.91983204
16	1-1-3	0.0055376	0.92536964
17	1-0-6	0.005522331	0.930891971
18	3-0-1	0.004290622	0.935182593
19	3-0-2	0.003695127	0.93887772
20	2-0-6	0.003343937	0.942221657
21	1-1-4	0.00329813	0.945519786
22	3-0-3	0.003201425	0.948721211
23	2-1-2	0.002896043	0.951617254
24	1-0-7	0.002824787	0.954442041
25	3-0-0	0.002794249	0.95723629
26	2-1-1	0.002641557	0.959877847
27	3-0-4	0.00259066	0.962468507
28	2-1-3	0.00224965	0.964718158
29	1-1-5	0.001873012	0.966591169
30	2-1-0	0.001766128	0.968357297