Red White balls
May 1st, 2016 at 2:22:01 AM
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Good day!
We have a casino here in the Philippines and there's a game that is simply called the Red and White ball game. There are 3 ping pong balls that you'll shoot in a funnel. At the bottom, there are boxes that the balls would fall in. Those boxes are either red, white or yellow. There are about 90 or 100 boxes, only 2 are yellow. You will either bet on red or white for a 1 to 1 payout. Yellow would be 15 is to 1 payout. The side bets are, you get either triple white or triple red, that's 7 to 1 payout. The minimum bet during weekdays is 100 pesos and during weekends the minimum bet is 200 pesos. How would you best play this game?
We have a casino here in the Philippines and there's a game that is simply called the Red and White ball game. There are 3 ping pong balls that you'll shoot in a funnel. At the bottom, there are boxes that the balls would fall in. Those boxes are either red, white or yellow. There are about 90 or 100 boxes, only 2 are yellow. You will either bet on red or white for a 1 to 1 payout. Yellow would be 15 is to 1 payout. The side bets are, you get either triple white or triple red, that's 7 to 1 payout. The minimum bet during weekdays is 100 pesos and during weekends the minimum bet is 200 pesos. How would you best play this game?
Last edited by: esedes666 on May 1, 2016
May 1st, 2016 at 5:01:19 AM
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Quote: esedes666Good day!
We have a casino here in the Philippines and there's a game that is simply called the Red and White ball game. There are 3 ping pong balls that you'll shoot in a funnel. At the bottom, there are boxes that the balls would fall in. Those boxes are either red, white or yellow. There are about 90 or 100 boxes, only 2 are yellow. You will either bet on red or white for a 1 to 1 payout. Yellow would be 15 is to 1 payout. The side bets are, you get either triple white or triple red, that's 7 to 1 payout. The minimum bet during weekdays is 100 pesos and during weekends the minimum bet is 200 pesos. How would you best play this game?
By walking away.
Unless you mean that the side bet is just one side bet where all three are red or all three are white and you don't have to predict which colour.
Assuming 100 boxes: 49 White: 49 Red: 2 Yellow. All the same shape and size and randomly dispersed.
Assuming that the side bets are separately 'All Red pays 7:1' and 'All White pays 7:1'
House edge betting White = 1-2*(49/100)=2%
House edge betting Red = 1-2*(49/100)=2%
House edge betting Yellow = 1-16*(2/100)=68%
House edge betting 'All Red' Side bet = 1- 8 * (49/100) * (49/100) * (49/100)=5.88%
House edge betting 'All White' Side bet = 1- 8 * (49/100) * (49/100) * (49/100)=5.88%
If there is just one side bet 'All the same colour' paying 7:1 then fill your boots: You'd have a 88% advantage on that.
1- 8 * 2 * (49/100) * (49/100) * (49/100)=-88%
Sounds a pretty naff game. Possibly not totally random and subject to physical biases, e.g yellow balls over to one edge or directly under the funnel.
Are you sure I didn't just do your maths homework question?
e&oe
$:o)
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 1st, 2016 at 6:00:47 AM
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Thanks!
This is not my Math homework. Hahahaha!
BTW, you can bet on all side bets. So even if i place a 100 peso bet on red, white or yellow, I could still place bets on either or both triple red or triple white side bet. Actually I could place my bets on all of them.
One more condition that I forgot to mention is, if one ball lands on atleast 1 yellow, all other color loses.
I've tried this, I placed 500 peso on red, 100 peso on all red, 100 peso on all white and 100 peso on yellow. If 2 balls landed on 2 red and 1 on white, I'll win 500 pesos, lose 300 pesos. I earn 200 pesos.
Best case scenario, If all 3 balls landed in red then I'll get 500 on the 2 red balls and get 700 on all red. I'd the earn 1000, that's already deducting the 100 each on all white and yellow.
Second best case scenario, if one ball landed on yellow, I'll earn 800 pesos, already deducting 700 that I've lost from 2 red, all red and all white.
If all white wins, I'll get my 800 pesos back.
The only time I'll lose is if only 2 balls landed on white.
What do you think?!
This is not my Math homework. Hahahaha!
BTW, you can bet on all side bets. So even if i place a 100 peso bet on red, white or yellow, I could still place bets on either or both triple red or triple white side bet. Actually I could place my bets on all of them.
One more condition that I forgot to mention is, if one ball lands on atleast 1 yellow, all other color loses.
I've tried this, I placed 500 peso on red, 100 peso on all red, 100 peso on all white and 100 peso on yellow. If 2 balls landed on 2 red and 1 on white, I'll win 500 pesos, lose 300 pesos. I earn 200 pesos.
Best case scenario, If all 3 balls landed in red then I'll get 500 on the 2 red balls and get 700 on all red. I'd the earn 1000, that's already deducting the 100 each on all white and yellow.
Second best case scenario, if one ball landed on yellow, I'll earn 800 pesos, already deducting 700 that I've lost from 2 red, all red and all white.
If all white wins, I'll get my 800 pesos back.
The only time I'll lose is if only 2 balls landed on white.
What do you think?!
Last edited by: esedes666 on May 1, 2016
May 1st, 2016 at 6:04:42 AM
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Quote: esedes666Thanks!
This is not my Math homework. Hahahaha!
BTW, you can bet on all side bets. So even if i place a 100 peso bet on red, white or yellow, I could still place bets on either or both triple red or triple white side bet. Actually I could place my bets on all of them.
One more condition that I forgot to mention is, if one ball lands on atleast 1 yellow, all other color loses.
Addendum:
For the simple red and white bets, I'd considered that you were betting on individual balls not "At least one White and no Yellows"
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 1st, 2016 at 6:20:56 AM
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Nope, not individual. This is how it looks like on the betting board.
2 red balls = 1:1
2 white balls = 1:1
All red = 7:1
All white = 7:1
Atleast 1 yellow = 15:1 (all other color loses, even if 2 balls landed on the same color)
Under the funnel, it looks like a chessboard.
2 red balls = 1:1
2 white balls = 1:1
All red = 7:1
All white = 7:1
Atleast 1 yellow = 15:1 (all other color loses, even if 2 balls landed on the same color)
Under the funnel, it looks like a chessboard.
May 1st, 2016 at 6:32:41 AM
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Resorts World in Manila has the Red and White game. From the video we can see there are 100 squares as follows:
49 Red
49 White
2 Logo
I could only confirm the 7 and 15 to one pays in the post above. There was a bet for 2 Logos but the video doesn't say what it pays.
Update: This forum says two Logos pays 250 to 1.
49 Red
49 White
2 Logo
I could only confirm the 7 and 15 to one pays in the post above. There was a bet for 2 Logos but the video doesn't say what it pays.
Update: This forum says two Logos pays 250 to 1.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 1st, 2016 at 6:46:43 AM
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That is exactly the game I'm talking about. LOL!
May 1st, 2016 at 6:50:38 AM
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Here is my analysis of the game.
Under these rules, the bets for two red/white lose if the third ball lands in yellow. I assume that the bet on one yellow will win on two yellows.
Under these rules, the bets for two red/white lose if the third ball lands in yellow. I assume that the bet on one yellow will win on two yellows.
| Bet | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two+ red | 1 | 76,048 | 0.470303 | -0.059394 |
| Two+ white | 1 | 76,048 | 0.470303 | -0.059394 |
| Three red | 7 | 18,424 | 0.113939 | -0.088485 |
| Three white | 7 | 18,424 | 0.113939 | -0.088485 |
| One yellow | 15 | 9,604 | 0.059394 | -0.049697 |
| Two yellow | 250 | 98 | 0.000606 | -0.847879 |
Last edited by: Wizard on May 1, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 1st, 2016 at 6:56:54 AM
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Quote: esedes666Nope, not individual. This is how it looks like on the betting board.
2 red balls = 1:1
2 white balls = 1:1
All red = 7:1
All white = 7:1
Atleast 1 yellow = 15:1 (all other color loses, even if 2 balls landed on the same color)
Under the funnel, it looks like a chessboard.
Ah....
2red and one white or 3 reds pays 1:1..... lets see....
Probability of 3 reds =(49/100)^3
Probability of 2 reds and one white ( not yellow )= 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100)
Therefore probability of 'at least 2 reds and no yellow = (49/100)^3 + 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100)=0.352947
but it only pays 1:1
So the house edge on that is 1-2x0.352947=29.41%
If I have that right. Don't walk away. Run away screaming.
hmmmm My numbers don't match Mikes...... reviewing...
Quote: WizardHere is my analysis of the game.
Bet Pays Combinations Probability Return One red 1 62,475 0.386364 -0.227273 One white 1 62,475 0.386364 -0.227273 Two red 1 59,976 0.370909 -0.258182 Two white 1 59,976 0.370909 -0.258182 Three red 7 18,424 0.113939 -0.088485 Three white 7 18,424 0.113939 -0.088485 One Logo 15 9,506 0.058788 -0.059394 Two logo 250 98 0.000606 -0.847879
Ah.... Because only one ball can go in one pocket....
P 3 reds=49/100 x 48/99 x 47/98 = .1139394 not the 0.117 that I gave... But then Mike had seen the game video.
Run away!!!! Don't bet on 2 yellow. That's the ultimate sucker bet.
Pretty Dealer: Nice action.
Last edited by: OnceDear on May 1, 2016
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 1st, 2016 at 7:12:12 AM
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So since I've tried this:
I placed 500 peso on red, 100 peso on all red, 100 peso on all white and 100 peso on yellow. If 2 balls landed on 2 red and 1 on white, I'll win 500 pesos, lose 300 pesos. I earn 200 pesos.
Best case scenario, If all 3 balls landed in red then I'll get 500 on the 2 red balls and get 700 on all red. I'd the earn 1000, that's already deducting the 100 each on all white and yellow.
Second best case scenario, if one ball landed on yellow, I'll earn 800 pesos, already deducting 700 that I've lost from 2 red, all red and all white.
If all white wins, I'll get my 800 pesos back.
The only time I'll lose is if only 2 balls landed on white.
Even if i distrubuted the 800 pesos that way, does it mean I'll only have a little less than 50% probability of winning?
I placed 500 peso on red, 100 peso on all red, 100 peso on all white and 100 peso on yellow. If 2 balls landed on 2 red and 1 on white, I'll win 500 pesos, lose 300 pesos. I earn 200 pesos.
Best case scenario, If all 3 balls landed in red then I'll get 500 on the 2 red balls and get 700 on all red. I'd the earn 1000, that's already deducting the 100 each on all white and yellow.
Second best case scenario, if one ball landed on yellow, I'll earn 800 pesos, already deducting 700 that I've lost from 2 red, all red and all white.
If all white wins, I'll get my 800 pesos back.
The only time I'll lose is if only 2 balls landed on white.
Even if i distrubuted the 800 pesos that way, does it mean I'll only have a little less than 50% probability of winning?
May 1st, 2016 at 7:25:44 AM
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Quote: esedes666The only time I'll lose is if only 2 balls landed on white.
Even if i distrubuted the 800 pesos that way, does it mean I'll only have a little less than 50% probability of winning?
Exactly two balls landing on white and NO yellow: You lose.
Probability of that happening is 49/100*48/99*49/98 + 49/100*49/99*48/98 + 49/100*49/99*48/98 = 36%
Probability of that not happening =64% But don't get excited, 'cos some of your non-losing bets only get a little profit.
e&oe
Dude. No single result on the pay table has a positive expectation. Therefore no combination of wagers has a positive expectation. End of.
Enjoy the dealer. Have fun. Don't expect to make money.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 1st, 2016 at 8:31:18 AM
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Quote: OnceDearhmmmm My numbers don't match Mikes...... reviewing...
Our point of departure seems to be whether two or more balls can land in the same square. If you look at the video carefully it seems impossible, or at least very unlikely, to me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 1st, 2016 at 8:46:00 AM
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Quote: OnceDearAh....
2red and one white or 3 reds pays 1:1..... lets see....
Probability of 3 reds =(49/100)^3
Probability of 2 reds and one white ( not yellow )= 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100)
Therefore probability of 'at least 2 reds and no yellow = (49/100)^3 + 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100)=0.352947
but it only pays 1:1
So the house edge on that is 1-2x0.352947=29.41%
If I have that right. Don't walk away. Run away screaming.
hmmmm My numbers don't match Mikes...... reviewing...
Ah.... Because only one ball can go in one pocket....
P 3 reds=49/100 x 48/99 x 47/98 = .1139394 not the 0.117 that I gave... But then Mike had seen the game video.
That wasn't the main problem in your original calculation.
0.352497 = 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100). You didn't add the (49/100)^3 to it.
Also, Mike's version doesn't seem to match the OP's.
Mike's numbers make it look like a bet on "2 White" wins if it includes one logo, but the OP's says that all white and red bets lose on any yellow.
Also, Mike shows different bets for one red, two reds, and three reds, and implies that if one wins, then the other two lose, while the OP says that the bets are "(two or mroe) red" and "all red", and both win if all three balls land in red.
May 1st, 2016 at 8:47:10 AM
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Agreed and fixed in edit. Note to self: For questions that don't feature the radical sign, Mike is mostly always right. $;d)Quote: WizardOur point of departure seems to be whether two or more balls can land in the same square. If you look at the video carefully it seems impossible, or at least very unlikely, to me.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 1st, 2016 at 9:26:40 AM
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Wouldn't it be about a 6% house edge when betting on one Red or one White if a Yellow causes all Red/White bets to lose?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
May 1st, 2016 at 11:21:37 AM
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Quote: OnceDearNote to self: For questions that don't feature the radical sign, Mike is mostly always right. $;d)
Ouch!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 1st, 2016 at 11:33:59 AM
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Tee Hee. Just Kidding Mike. That Radical sign thing was a revelation to most members, certainly to me.Quote: WizardOuch!
As punishment to me, the universe has just reminded me of the original 2 dice thread.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 1st, 2016 at 12:11:50 PM
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Yup, any yellow makes red and white loses. Eg. 1 yellow 2 reds or 1 yellow 2 whites or 1 yellow 1 white and 1 red.
Correct, since I placed a 500 peso bet on 2 reds and 100 peso bet on 3 reds, both of my bets win.
And yes, it has to be 2 or all on the same color (without the yellow, ofcourse).
Thanks guys with the computation and all. Now I know that the way I distrubuted the money on the betting table...I'll have a 36% probability of losing.
Correct, since I placed a 500 peso bet on 2 reds and 100 peso bet on 3 reds, both of my bets win.
And yes, it has to be 2 or all on the same color (without the yellow, ofcourse).
Thanks guys with the computation and all. Now I know that the way I distrubuted the money on the betting table...I'll have a 36% probability of losing.
Last edited by: esedes666 on May 1, 2016
May 1st, 2016 at 1:39:24 PM
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Quote: esedes666Yup, any yellow makes red and white loses. Eg. 1 yellow 2 reds or 1 yellow 2 whites or 1 yellow 1 white and 1 red.
Thanks. I amended my post with the tables to show the math both ways. I also didn't know that three reds would be a winner for two reds, which I fixed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 1st, 2016 at 3:55:28 PM
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Please check out my new page on Red and White. As usual, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 8th, 2016 at 2:03:11 AM
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I think the edges cannot be 100% accurate.
The game is not truly random, there has to be some bias, long-term trials and plotting the landing positions would show this, but would it ever get close enough to be of any value? The distribution of red/white squares seems even. But the yellow squares could offer some sort of bias. If they were directly under the hole I would assume they would land more often, if they were in the far corners they would land less often. Maybe thats why the edge is so high on the yellow bets?
The game is not truly random, there has to be some bias, long-term trials and plotting the landing positions would show this, but would it ever get close enough to be of any value? The distribution of red/white squares seems even. But the yellow squares could offer some sort of bias. If they were directly under the hole I would assume they would land more often, if they were in the far corners they would land less often. Maybe thats why the edge is so high on the yellow bets?
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
