BAD SIGNS

Quote: Nareed

The recovery is being held back by the Keynesian policies enacted by Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress. Oil prices have little or nothing to do with it.

It's hard to me to even list how many ways I find that statement flawed.

Oil is actually one of the few single prices that DO have substantial impact. When the market is distorted by speculation or the political policies of the exporting countries it does have a make a real difference to the global economy.

Democrats haven't controlled Congress since the 2012 elections.

Try to remember what a 'Keynesian" policy is. It is to run deficits during recession (to stimulate the economy) and surpluses during expansion (to tamp inflation and pay off the deficit). We did that in the 1990's, thanks to George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. It worked perfectly.

Then came George W. with his tax cuts that intentionally unbalanced the budget, a war in Iraq we didn't need and didn't even pretend to pay for, and a recession in 2007 that was allowed to balloon into a banking crises in 2008.

Obama did one Keynesian thing when he took office: The stimulus. Our drift back towards a double-dip recession is probably caused by its end. The current economy of the USA is replaying mistakes from 1936-1938.

Mark Abe

PS: I find your comments on gambling to be quite astute.

I think part of the answer to the oil problem is natural gas. I like parts of the Pickens Plan (but I don't really think wind is a long term answer). We have an abundance of natural gas in this country and the only auto manufacturer that mass produces a natural gas vehicle for the consumer is Honda (Civic GX).

Out in California, we have natural gas piped to just about every household. You can fill up your car at your home overnight via a low pressure home filling station. They also have natural gas fillng stations, but not really enough to make it an inconvenience. If I had a significant commute (mine is only 9 miles round trip) I would get seriously look at a natural gas vehicle.

Right now natural gas is $2.45 by me for a gasoline gallon equivalent. Regular Gasoline in Southern California is currently $3.90!

Civic GX's City/Highway combined mpg is 31. Now I know that is not up to the Prius's 40+, but since you can buy 1.6 gallons of natural gas for every gallon of gasoline, the Prius only wins once its combined city/highway mileage gets above 51 mpg. I am also guessing the battery replacement is a lot more expensive on a Prius than a new CNG tank for the Civic and more environmentally friendly.

If we figured out how to get natural gas as a real transportation energy source (besides just fleet use by buses, etc.), you would see a big drop in the cost of oil.

That and drill baby drill!

Quote: MarkAbe

It's hard to me to even list how many ways I find that statement flawed.

[..]

Quote:

Democrats haven't controlled Congress since the 2012 elections.

You're one to talk....

In any case Obama's been in office since January of 09. he had democratic controlled Congress until January 2011. That's nearly two years in which he imposed all his policies his way. If they haven't helped it's because they can't.

As to the Bush tax cuts, they generated more revenue, not less. Had Bush possessed an ounce of fiscal responsibility, he wouldn't have driven up the deficit, aided and abetted by the Republican-controlled Congress.

Quote:

Obama did one Keynesian thing when he took office: The stimulus. Our drift back towards a double-dip recession is probably caused by its end. The current economy of the USA is replaying mistakes from 1936-1938.

Well, we agree on one thing. But the stimulus did nothing to help. We're heading to a double-dip recession because of it, not because it ended. Unemployment has remained high despite some recovery because the uncertainty introduced to the markets by Obama's policies.

As for bad signs, I watch the layoff announcements. Headlines like BofA laying off 35,000 is not a good thing. That is getting back to the times when we saw announcements of 1000's of layoffs each week and things got worse and worse until the layoffs stopped happening and businesses were "right sized" in managements minds.

Fed & State Governments are going to need to get smaller over some period of time as well and those layoffs, while they may be required, are still going to affect us getting out of this recession. Less people having the ability to buy things as a result of being laid off is going to take time to absorb. It is a worthy goal to decrease government waste & spending, but the process is not without pain along the way. Those "wasteful" wages are being spent in the economy somewhere and taking them out of the economy is going to have an impact.

Same with decreasing the size of the Postal Service. It may be the right answer and I don't want to argue that point, but those layoffs like others will have a negative impact on consumer spending and therefore draw out the current economic situation.

I don't see this economy getting better for a long time. Two plus years for sure, maybe three. I am hoping that we sort of stay at this level and grind forward with a slight upward bias. Like 1-2% GDP growth would be best case. It is going to be OK for those that hang on to their jobs and really ugly for some that have been laid off and can't find a replacement. Not a great time in America right now for sure.

I'm not sure what your comment about George W.'s tax cut was. His cuts caused a drop in revenue. He quite certainly had not an ounce of fiscal responsibility, and did drive up the deficit (actually took us from a surplus to a deficit), aided and abetted by the Republican controlled Congress.

Obama hardly had "imposed all his policies his way," particularly because the Republicans in the Senate remained ready to filibuster whenever they wanted. He did pass a stimulus for the period mid 2009 through mid 2011. During that time the USA economy expanded slowly and unemployment overall declined from about 12% to about 9%. Since it ended we have been sliding back toward a double-dip.

Any uncertainty in the markets was introduced by John Boehner's unprecedented decision to politicize the raising of a deficit cap.

Sorry about the typing error. It was of course the 2010 elections. I do however expect Republicans to win in 2012.

Quote: Paradigm

I think part of the answer to the oil problem is natural gas. I like parts of the Pickens Plan (but I don't really think wind is a long term answer). We have an abundance of natural gas in this country and the only auto manufacturer that mass produces a natural gas vehicle for the consumer is Honda (Civic GX).

I'm not savvy on this Pickens Plan, but gases other than petrol? Why not?

I've seen it in big rigs, where propane is basically used in a similar fashion as nitrous. Obviously it's toned down for utilitarian use, but it results in the same outcome - cool the air to make a more dense oxygen mixture and get more power from the current fuel. I even seen a '57 Belair with a 502 that ran solely on propane. Granted, if I had a hotrod I'd want a pure petrol, thumping, loud machine, but for my daily driver? You betcha, gimme what works on the cheap.

Or just put a bloody turbo on everything already. Seems to work for Ferrari.

Quote: MarkAbe

Any uncertainty in the markets was introduced by John Boehner's unprecedented decision to politicize the raising of a deficit cap.

Please. It's not as if the economy was going along great and then suddenly collapsed.

You should get your facts straight. Obama took over with an unemployment rate of 8.2%. Since then it climbed to a high of 10.1% in October of 09, and has hovered around 9.1% since then. Some stimulus, eh?

Quote: Nareed

Some stimulus, eh?

Stimulus? You mean the Porkulous slush fund to
pay back the Obama cronies who got him elected?
That stimulus?

OK, I see that the name-callers have broken the discussion. Shame on you Bob, and all your kind who fail to understand the ultimate slush fund of an entire unnecessary war to help defense contractors and the oil companies, including that foreign-chartered one the former Vice President headed.

Let me return to topic then: What I notice is that when I mail checks to people like dentists and the maid service they now get cashed the same day they arrive. These people used to go to the bank weekly and now do it daily.

Quote: MarkAbe

What I notice is that when I mail checks to people like dentists and the maid service they now get cashed the same day they arrive. These people used to go to the bank weekly and now do it daily.

Yes, so what. When I write a check at some places
they run it thru the register and hand the check
back to me. The money was instantly deducted
from my account. The days of floating checks are
gone.