Poll

16 votes (94.11%)
1 vote (5.88%)

17 members have voted

AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:52:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You're welcome. I'm still going to get a bigger sample size.



Of course!! More data is always better!

I have unbent tickets currently sitting in a drum. I feel dumb.
chrisr
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:53:23 PM permalink
95% CI (0.482115, 0.739293). did i do that right?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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June 1st, 2014 at 10:52:50 AM permalink
The results are in!

I had six volunteers each draw 40 to 60 tickets for a total sample size of 300.

Folded: 175
Unfolded: 125

Remember that there were 50% folded and 50% unfolded tickets in the bag.

So, 58.3% of the tickets drawn were folded. The probability of drawing this many or more folded tickets, assuming a true 50% probability is 1 in 514.

I might add that the volunteers who drew tickets hastily were the most likely to draw folded ones. Those who seemed to put a lot of thought into it were close or at 50/50.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
GWAE
GWAE 
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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June 1st, 2014 at 11:09:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The results are in!

I had six volunteers each draw 40 to 60 tickets for a total sample size of 300.

Folded: 175
Unfolded: 125

Remember that there were 50% folded and 50% unfolded tickets in the bag.

So, 58.3% of the tickets drawn were folded. The probability of drawing this many or more folded tickets, assuming a true 50% probability is 1 in 514.

I might add that the volunteers who drew tickets hastily were the most likely to draw folded ones. Those who seemed to put a lot of thought into it were close or at 50/50.



But does this really answer the question about drawing tickets?

Last weekend there were probably 10,000 tickets in the barrel. If there are only 100 folded tickets then would it be more likely to be drawn in this instance?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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June 1st, 2014 at 11:19:24 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Last weekend there were probably 10,000 tickets in the barrel. If there are only 100 folded tickets then would it be more likely to be drawn in this instance?



I think it is safe to assume that your odds are better folding your own tickets than not folding them. In your example, I would suggest a folded ticket has a 1 in 8,571 chance, instead of 1 in 10,000.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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June 1st, 2014 at 4:24:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The results are in!

I had six volunteers each draw 40 to 60 tickets for a total sample size of 300.

Folded: 175
Unfolded: 125

Remember that there were 50% folded and 50% unfolded tickets in the bag.

So, 58.3% of the tickets drawn were folded. The probability of drawing this many or more folded tickets, assuming a true 50% probability is 1 in 514.

I might add that the volunteers who drew tickets hastily were the most likely to draw folded ones. Those who seemed to put a lot of thought into it were close or at 50/50.



Thanks for doing this! Definitely good to know.
ChampagneFireball
ChampagneFireball
Joined: May 2, 2010
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June 3rd, 2014 at 10:58:41 AM permalink
I was at a corporate event where they gave out prizes via a business card drawing, and they excluded any business card that was bent, even announcing "So-and-so, you would have won if you hadn't bent your business card in an attempt to game the system."
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:13:40 AM permalink
Quote: ChampagneFireball

I was at a corporate event where they gave out prizes via a business card drawing, and they excluded any business card that was bent, even announcing "So-and-so, you would have won if you hadn't bent your business card in an attempt to game the system."



That's stupid. They should just encourage everyone to bend their cards.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:21:57 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That's stupid. They should just encourage everyone to bend their cards.


If it was clearly stated before you submitted the card, it's not stupid. They can have whatever rules they want for their drawing. But if they didn't specify that rule upfront, then it's stupid and unfair.

Has anyone heard of a casino drawing making this rule? I have never entered one.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:54:09 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

If it was clearly stated before you submitted the card, it's not stupid. They can have whatever rules they want for their drawing. But if they didn't specify that rule upfront, then it's stupid and unfair.

Has anyone heard of a casino drawing making this rule? I have never entered one.

Always read the fine print for anything from sweepstakes to these drawings. I read a book on the subject once and it recommended to not even put a return address on your mailed entries' envelopes because some companies void them to make the pool lower to draw from.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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