Will Nevada see $13 billion again

On October 2007 Nevada reported a peak running 12 month total of $13 billion. For 30 monthly reports since that time the total has been lower so that it now stands at $10.4 billion.


Macau reported HKD$120.3 billion dollars in revenue last year which is equivalent to US $15.44 billion with the year 2010 looking like it will set record increases. It easily surpasses Nevada and is several times as large as the Vegas strip.

Do you think Nevada will get back to $13 billion ? If you do, Inside or outside of three years?

Reno area of Washoe county has been down now for 45 straight months from it's high of $775 million (down to $579 million). That is down 25% for Reno as compare to 20% for the state of Nevada (from the peak). I am taking it for granted that Reno hit it's peak at the end of June 2006 since that was long before any hit of the recession. It's just overwhelmed by local competition in Sacramento. I am not including Reno in the poll, but if there is anyone who thinks that they will recover someday, I would like to hear their thoughts.


The salvation of the Vegas trip since May of 2009 has been baccarat. The graph shows the jump in revenue from one month to the same month a year later. The blue lines indicate the range of that month back to 2006 which began the latest wave of popularity of baccarat on the strip. If there are no blue lines then the data back to 2006 is within the range of the last jump.

I see a disturbingly small jump for the latest April 2010 numbers. I think that this is because of the new competition in Singapore and the new Wynn Encore in Macau. I have been wrong before, and baccarat may be rejuvenated by the new jet from Paris. But if baccarat starts going down on the strip it will be really bad. The spectacular baccarat returns in Feb 2010 for Chinese New Year's have finally put the strip back in the black for the fiscal year (just barely in the black).

To answer your question, yes Vegas will get back beyond 2007 numbers, but no I don't see it happening within 3 years. That would be somewhere near a 30% increase, and this just isn't going to happen.

This has been discussed before, but there is just too much competition for both the gambling dollar, and the overall recreation/tourism dollar today, and the national economy is still some time away from anything looking like a strong recovery.

The comparisons to Macau aren't really reasonable any longer. Macau is the only place in China where casino gambling is legal; China's economy is growing at 7+%/yr still today; and China has over three times the population of the US. Macau of today is comparable to Vegas in the 1980s....or maybe 1960s. It is the ONLY option for gambling in a huge country that is growing more and more prosperous by the year.

Compare that to Vegas and the US. While Vegas is still a huge draw, no one HAS to go to Vegas if they want to play slots, or blackjack, or Craps. Almost everyone other than those in So. Cal. have options that are much closer to home.

Quote: ruascott

Compare that to Vegas and the US. While Vegas is still a huge draw, no one HAS to go to Vegas if they want to play slots, or blackjack, or Craps. Almost everyone other than those in So. Cal. have options that are much closer to home.

I think Vegas needs to do two things:

1) market itself, to gamblers, as the bets place to gamble. Sure, there are casinos elsewhere, but Vegas has a alot of casinos in a relatively small area. In other words, a great deal more choices.

2) Look for people with fewer gambling alternatives, or at least fewer easy gambling alternatives.

Consider Mexico. There are slots, bingo and a few electronic games, but no real casinos. There are daily direct flights from three major cities to Las Vegas. Other easy destinations (ie with frequent direct flights from major cities) are: Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami, NYC and Chicago. What gambling options in these cities or nearby?

Consider that it's cheaper, less time consuming and overall easier to just go to Vegas.

Gaming in America in $billions
Year - Commercial Casinos - Overall
2007-$34.13-$92.3
2008-$32.54-N/A
2009-$30.74-N/A

I suppose that the Macau numbers should be compared to the overall USA gaming numbers which are still larger.

I would love to see Las Vegas replace or rival Houston as the air hub to Mexico.

Quote: Nareed

I think Vegas needs to do two things:

1) market itself, to gamblers, as the bets place to gamble. Sure, there are casinos elsewhere, but Vegas has a alot of casinos in a relatively small area. In other words, a great deal more choices.

2) Look for people with fewer gambling alternatives, or at least fewer easy gambling alternatives.

Consider Mexico. There are slots, bingo and a few electronic games, but no real casinos. There are daily direct flights from three major cities to Las Vegas. Other easy destinations (ie with frequent direct flights from major cities) are: Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami, NYC and Chicago. What gambling options in these cities or nearby?

Consider that it's cheaper, less time consuming and overall easier to just go to Vegas.

I'm not convinced that it is easier/cheaper. Not sure on all, but if I lived there I might think:

Houston: New Orleans/Biloxi is not that far a drive
Chicago: Casinos are a plenty in Chicagoland already
NYC: Currently they go to A/C. The Penn casino will be even closer.
Miami: Bahamas is very close, and for some people perhaps more appealing than LV as you can get their by boat instead of plane. Oh, and I here they have some pretty nice beaches.

Obviously LA and Phoenix are natural destinations already because of the geographic proximity. They are a 4-5 hour drive and/or a cheap quick flight away. Easy long weekend.


I'm not saying that any or all of these replace LV as a destination city for a bit longer vacation. But lets face it, flying is a hassle, and if you are coming from east of the Mississippi it takes a LONG time and a lot of $$$ to get there, even on a direct flight. A lot easier to scratch that gambling itch closer to home.

I realize I'm repeating what a lot have already said before...but man, its going to be a long, hard slog for LV in general over the coming years.

For a good bet, what does everyone think the over/under on # of years until the Echelon and F-Blue are both open?

Quote: ruascott

I'm not convinced that it is easier/cheaper.

Oh, it is. Other than Chicago, the options you listed require further travel and/or a car rental. Vegas requires neither.

As for Chicago, that's tough competition. I mean, there are other things to do in the city aside from the casinos. But it takes a much longer flight (Mex City to Vegas is around 3.5 hours, Chicago ought to be at least 5), and Vegas has nicer weather.

Quote: Nareed

Oh, it is. Other than Chicago, the options you listed require further travel and/or a car rental. Vegas requires neither.

As for Chicago, that's tough competition. I mean, there are other things to do in the city aside from the casinos. But it takes a much longer flight (Mex City to Vegas is around 3.5 hours, Chicago ought to be at least 5), and Vegas has nicer weather.

Sorry, I misread your initial post. I thought you were talking about marketing Vegas to people that live in those cities. I see now you are saying Vegas should compete with those cities as tourist destinations.

Yes, over three years.


Vegas will continue to get hammered with dropping numbers until casinos stop opening in new US markets. Eventually, people will tire of the local establishment and return to a real gambling mecca as a diverstion.

Or, for no particular reason, the numbers will bottom out, and normal inflation will eventually bring the numbers back to $13 billion.

Either way, it's gonna take more than 3 years.

Quote: ruascott

Sorry, I misread your initial post. I thought you were talking about marketing Vegas to people that live in those cities. I see now you are saying Vegas should compete with those cities as tourist destinations.

More as a gambling destination, but yes.

Of ourse you won't get many high rollers from mexico, but the sheer number of daily flights means a lot of Mexicans travel to Vegas, it would be interesting to find out how much they spend on average per trip.

Quote: ruascott

For a good bet, what does everyone think the over/under on # of years until the Echelon and F-Blue are both open?

I suppose the book makers set the over/under to balance the total bets. If the problem were worded that there is just a single one-on-one wager and you need to set the over/under for your opponent to choose his side on, that strikes me as an interesting issue.

Would you set it at the number of years you think are most likely (or perhaps a "mean" value rather than a "mode") so that you are indifferent as to which side the other party chooses? Suppose you believe (or you think your opponent believes) that the two places won't ever both be open. What is the appropriate over/under? I don't think it would really be infinity -- your opponent would always choose the under, since the over would never be paid. How would you handle that scenario?