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RS
RS
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May 19th, 2017 at 1:15:44 AM permalink
MaxPen don't do it.

1. Think about it logically, what do you think Axel's guess would be, if he were to play optimally?
2. He wasn't out having cocktails, he was spending all day with a computer photo forensic scientist who analyzed the picture and determined exactly how much is in the jug, to within 1%.
3. Saying he was out having cocktails and "don't take too much advantage of me" etc. is just word play to make you think he f***ed up when he offered the bet. Was really a well thought out snakey plan.
"should of played 'Go Fish' today ya peasant" -typoontrav
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 19th, 2017 at 1:51:11 AM permalink
Quote: RS

MaxPen don't do it.

1. Think about it logically, what do you think Axel's guess would be, if he were to play optimally?
2. He wasn't out having cocktails, he was spending all day with a computer photo forensic scientist who analyzed the picture and determined exactly how much is in the jug, to within 1%.
3. Saying he was out having cocktails and "don't take too much advantage of me" etc. is just word play to make you think he f***ed up when he offered the bet. Was really a well thought out snakey plan.

It's not that easy to actually be right even if you know the approximate volume. You can put $900 in a two liter all dimes I was told as fact. Nobody really knows the dollar value per gallon. If it were known for a fact, his guess was that bad, 100/1 wouldn't even be much risk besides really not be 100% confident you are in fact the one way off. Even being told not that many pennies, there seems to be a lot visible and nobody really knows if someone else was disposing of just pennies in the household. If I had to guess, id think axel would go lower, but I am not sure.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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RS
May 19th, 2017 at 1:52:25 AM permalink
Quote: RS

MaxPen don't do it.

1. Think about it logically, what do you think Axel's guess would be, if he were to play optimally?
2. He wasn't out having cocktails, he was spending all day with a computer photo forensic scientist who analyzed the picture and determined exactly how much is in the jug, to within 1%.
3. Saying he was out having cocktails and "don't take too much advantage of me" etc. is just word play to make you think he f***ed up when he offered the bet. Was really a well thought out snakey plan.

Cocktails was probably a typo.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
MaxPen
MaxPen
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:04:47 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Dam cocktails, oh well, I will honor what I said.

Let's be clear

If your guess is and remains $833, then I will give you 2 to 1 that my guess will be closer to the correct amount than yours. ( It doesn't matter if someone guesses over the correct amount)
My guess must be $733 or less, or $933 or more, that way I can't guess $834 or $832(that would be really dumb at 2 to 1 anyways.)

I'll add a no weasel clause, meaning no word play BS or tricks on my wording or whatever.

If you agree to all that.... the bets on.

How much were you thinking? Don't take too much advantage of me on this one. Perhaps we make it fun and the bet will be whatever is in the jug?



Ok, my 100.00 to your 200.00.
My guess was 833.20
You can guess any amount 733.20 or below or any amount 933.20 or above. You get one choice.
Whoever is closest to the amount of change in Wizard's jug wins the bet.

I will also offer you an even money bet that I have guessed within $75.00 the amount in Wizard's jug. The total would have to be anywhere between 758.20 and 908.20. The amount of this bet would be $50.00.

Let me know via the forum what you want to do.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:21:33 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Ok, my 100.00 to your 200.00.
My guess was 833.20
You can guess any amount 733.20 or below or any amount 933.20 or above. You get one choice.
Whoever is closest to the amount of change in Wizard's jug wins the bet.

I will also offer you an even money bet that I have guessed within $75.00 the amount in Wizard's jug. The total would have to be anywhere between 758.20 and 908.20. The amount of this bet would be $50.00.

Let me know via the forum what you want to do.

$100 is a little light, but ok, I accept that bet.

I will skip the other bet for now.

Since I think it's much lower(I told a few people what I thought it was already) I will go with the $733.20 for the best chance to win. Prior to the count, I'll even let you back out after further conversation here for $55.

Again 733.20 is what I'm picking for this bet.

I reserve the right to have a different guess for the contest if they go with that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MaxPen
MaxPen
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:31:39 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

$100 is a little light, but ok, I accept that bet.

I will skip the other bet for now.

Since I think it's much lower(I told a few people what I thought it was already) I will go with the $733.20 for the best chance to win. Prior to the count, I'll even let you back out after further conversation here for $55.

Again 733.20 is what I'm picking for this bet.

I reserve the right to have a different guess for the contest if they go with that.



If you think it is much lower then you should have jumped on my even money bet.
Bets on ............my 100 to your 200
There is no amount of conversation that would get me to buyout before an official count. ;-)
Sounds like you have a lock. Good luck with your under.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:35:56 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Ok, my 100.00 to your 200.00.
My guess was 833.20
You can guess any amount 733.20 or below or any amount 933.20 or above. You get one choice.
Whoever is closest to the amount of change in Wizard's jug wins the bet.

I will also offer you an even money bet that I have guessed within $75.00 the amount in Wizard's jug. The total would have to be anywhere between 758.20 and 908.20. The amount of this bet would be $50.00.

Let me know via the forum what you want to do.



Since Axel doesn't want the 2nd bet, I would take the other side of.it for $50 (even money you're not within $75). However, if you're only offering it to him, that's OK too.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:55:44 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

If you think it is much lower then you should have jumped on my even money bet.
Bets on ............my 100 to your 200
There is no amount of conversation that would get me to buyout before an official count. ;-)
Sounds like you have a lock. Good luck with your under.

I glossed over the even money part. I will split the action with Barbra if she wants too.

What if I could show you evidence(not saying I can) that a half full jug of .25 was not even $833? Wouldn't you buy out for $55?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MaxPen
MaxPen
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:56:07 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Since Axel doesn't want the 2nd bet, I would take the other side of.it for $50 (even money you're not within $75). However, if you're only offering it to him, that's OK too.



I was only offering it to him.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:57:12 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I was only offering it to him.

I'll take it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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