Weird replacement card results for VP?

I've been playing a lot of 25cent FPDW in LV and 25 cent/1$ 9/6 JOB in AC recently (and yay, I just got my first 2 royal flushes ever after two marathon 8 hour nonstop playing sessions in 25c JOB respectively with $500 starting bankrolls) and I've been noticing a weird trend happening recently in these games- getting the same card again after you discard it!

For example, let's say you have four spades initially and a 3 of diamonds. I discard that 3 of diamonds to shoot for the flush, and the replacement card is- you guessed it - the 3 of diamonds again. (and yes, I am sure that I discarded the card!)

It *appears* , especially whenever I keep 4 and discard 1, the probability of me getting the same card that I discarded initially is higher than expected (for example, I had a 10 hand sequence where I had 3 scenarios where I held 4 to a flush, and each time I got the SAME discard card back after the draw.), but it could be all a "fluke" where I simply remembered those hands out of frustration/selective memory.

So, I have 3 questions
a) is it accepted rules/knowledge in the VP world that the discarded cards (up to all 5 as applicable) are NOT removed and all become available as replacement cards?
I have read some strategy comments on the wizardofodds site that seem to indicate that the replacement cards typically do not overlap with the initial 1st five cards dealt?

b) anyone notice any similar trends of this happening in a NON-RANDOM nature? Possible RNG feature? The VP poker machines looked legit (not paytabs, otherwise played normally, in well established casinos in Vegas and AC)

c) (related to (a)) - are all the expected analysis/strategies based on (a) being true (i.e. discard cards are not removed and can come back as replacements)?

Thanks for any insights. I'm not sure I notice this happening as much when I discard 2,3,4 or 5 cards, but again, it could be selective memory as one is not as inclined to remember non winning replacement cards in those scenarios.

Discards should NOT return on the draw. If that's happening, the machine is paying out at a much lower rate than it would appear to be.

Was this a standard IGT or Bally video poker machine? If so, I'm skeptical that you received the exact same card on the draw that you discarded. The most likely explanations are that you either received the card of the same rank and color, but different suit (for example, you discarded the 3 of diamonds and received the 3 of hearts), or you accidentally held the card before hitting the Draw button.

Were you consuming alcohol (or anything else) during your 8-hour sessions, and/or were you physically tired?

I would recommend trying to catch it on camera or video if possible.

Marathon eight hour session?
Even those little white mice pressing a lever to gain a pellet of food or a puff of cigarette smoke need a rest now and then. Sheer repetitive button pressing for that long would eventually lead to fatigue induced errors. Yet, it just might in fact be happening. Keep that video camera rolling!

Maybe he means the same card in rank only. If so, this sounds like the Rob Singer theory.

thanks for the replies! I'm confident that it was same rank and the same suit, although obviously I don't have proof at this time. The reason I'm sure is because many of those were flushes (some were 4 to the straight flush) and I kept reminding myself the card I discarded every time I push the button. If it was same rank but diff suit, or same suit and diff rank, I would have noticed and not been so angry!

I practice for a few hours at a time on the Wizard of Odds JOB free play JAVA game , so yes I'm a pro! ;->


I believe it's happened on both the IGT or Ballys type machines, but I will try to make a note/photo next time to try to 'prove' it happened. I obviously would have been tired towards the end of these sessions, but no alcohol was involved and I have no health issues.

So let's say hypothetically this is true (discards come back). How much worse are playing those machines? Is this ethically something they need to divulge?

I am not sure if it's cool to say what casinos/machine locations these were in... If these are 'rogue' machines different from the others, I might not go back to those casinos in question, even though I got 2 royals in a relatively short period of time!

Cryptologic Internet casinos have such a game, called Bonus' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>https://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/tables/bonusvideopoker.html]Bonus Video Poker. The 40-20-9-6 Jacks or Better pay table in that game returns 95.2642%. In conventional video poker it would return 98.2534%. So putting the discards back in the deck costs the player 2.9892% in this example.

I'm extremely skeptical that an IGT or Bally's machine would do this. This is crying out for a video as evidence.

Quote: Wizard

Cryptologic Internet casinos have such a game, called . The 40-20-9-6 Jacks or Better pay table in that game returns 95.2642%. In conventional video poker it would return 98.2534%. So putting the discards back in the deck costs the player 2.9892% in this example.

I'm extremely skeptical that an IGT or Bally's machine would do this. This is crying out for a video as evidence.

I'll try to document this next time if I can (especially if someone else has noticed the same thing), although most of AC where I usually play frowns upon using any video cameras in my experience. I don't want to be backed off from VP or barred from the casino (especially one that I am winning at).

Ummm, I wonder hypothetically if the Gaming commissions needs to know about the discard policy.
Any slot/ VP > 99% return has gotten rare that I'm surprised they even offer 9/6 JOB at any denom without some drawbacks. A game with discard play like this could easily be 'snuck' in without suspicion, in my view, since most players only play maybe 30-60 minutes and give up if they don't hit a major hand).
I probably wouldn't have noticed the play/win difference if I didn't practice so much on the JAVA game at home.

Quote: Wizard

Maybe he means the same card in rank only. If so, this sounds like the Rob Singer theory.

I was thinking the same thing Wizard. However, the poster here is much more articulate than our boy. Here are my opinions of what is possibly occurring here:

1 - The machine(s) being played here are not class III machines, but class II or video lottery terminals. In the case of VLT's, the result is pre-determined at the time of the deal, so the results after the draw are just window dressing and can display anything to match the pre-determined result, even if it means displaying an identical card. Although, I believe this would be a poor way of displaying the result especially because the same result could be displayed without reusing any cards. For instance, if when the deal button is hit the pre-determined result is that of a royal flush, no matter what the player holds, the end result will display a royal flush. Even if the player is dealt 4 to a royal and discards 1 of the family, when the draw button is hit the card will return with the 5th card of the royal in some manner. Even if a cowgirl has to appear on the screen with a six shooter to blow holes in some cards to replace them with a royal flush (really! this does happen on some class II machines). However, I don't know where and why there would be any class II machines in Vegas or AC.

2 - The original poster of the thread is "full of you know what" and is just looking to start corruption rumors. We've seen this all before, with 4 card flipovers and the like. I am a very acute player that probably plays most games with 99.7% accuracy. I usually don't pay much attention to the exact cards that I discard at times except maybe when mulling over a penalty card scenario for half a second. However, if I observed, with the slightest incling that a card I discarded may have returned after a draw, I sure as heck would be paying extremely close attention on every draw there after. And if this occurred to me in a regulated region such as in Vegas or AC, I sure as all heck would have called the gaming commission at that point in time and demanded the machine be examined immediately.

3 - The poster was playing an oddball game such as the Wizard identified that re-shuffles discards in the draw. I've never seen a game like this in any casino ever. Or the poster was simply fabricating the story about being in Vegas or AC and was playing on Pogo or a cellphone with no type of proven program behind it. Or the poster was drunk, has poor eyesight, was over-tired and hallucinating, anyone's guess what else here, etc, etc.

With my extensive experience in video poker play over the years combined with video poker forum particpation the last several years, my odds are on opinion #2.

Wow, I get some great info but it is now starting to come with nasty accusations. I don't appreciate the aspersions that I am a pathological liar or am looking to troll, as you don't know me. Everyone has to start somewhere on these boards, and I apologize if I sound like a troll. It is not my intent.

There are a lot of legit reasons that most people would NOT have "called the gaming commission" after noticing this, including the lack of desire to start a battle over what I would consider a mostly academic issue.

If it provides any more clues to anyone, I did hit both royals in AC with holding 4 to a royal and getting the needed jack. It could have been class II but I'm sure people would have noticed since they are high visib full pay machines listed in VPFree2 (one is a progressive 9/6 JOB, one is not). So I'm fully able to admit that maybe I was imagining it. I am not so arrogant as to believe that my senses are perfect after 8 hours of play. Edward

Quote: edhou1

Wow, I get some great info but it is now starting to come with nasty accusations. I don't appreciate the aspersions that I am a pathological liar or am looking to troll, as you don't know me. Everyone has to start somewhere on these boards, and I apologize if I sound like a troll. It is not my intent.

There are a lot of legit reasons that most people would NOT have "called the gaming commission" after noticing this, including the lack of desire to start a battle over what I would consider a mostly academic issue.

If it provides any more clues to anyone, I did hit both royals in AC with holding 4 to a royal and getting the needed jack. It could have been class II but I'm sure people would have noticed since they are high visib full pay machines listed in VPFree2 (one is a progressive 9/6 JOB, one is not). So I'm fully able to admit that maybe I was imagining it. I am not so arrogant as to believe that my senses are perfect after 8 hours of play. Edward

Sorry you feel that I'm accusing you of being a troll. You write with good articulation and seem to be direct with your thoughts. I'm happy for your royal flushes. However, I can only think of a few "legit" reasons someone would not call the gaming commission: the player has a warrant for his arrest, the player has been suspected of cheating casinos, or the player doesn't understand how significant a find it would be that the casinos are cheating. Also, I don't see how this is only an academic issue, when the entire pay table displayed on the machine is a fallacy and we, the customers, are playing the game based on the information supplied by the casino. If this were actually happening, the whole casino industry could be brought to it's knees, let alone the one casino you were playing at. I guess if this were the 70's or 80's if you were the whistle blower, there could be some future concerns for you safety. But this is 2010, where corporations run casinos and viral videos capture everything. If I were in your shoes, I'd record the actual occurance, contact the gaming commission and the media and find a way to get rich off of the discovery.

If, as it seems with your last post, you're not looking to start corruption rumors, I would say go play there again when you're well rested and play slowly. Keep a log of cards dealt and drawn and see if this actually does occur. It would be tedious work but would answer all the questions. Also find out for certain if the machines you are playing on are class II or III. Class II machines have a little "bingo card" on the front display panel. I seriously doubt they would be class II in AC or Vegas. If the casino has an issue with you recording information on paper, that should definitely be a sign of a problem. If this is a smaller, off the beaten path casino I would leave and call the gaming commission anonymously. I think if you're legitimate, as you say you are, you'll find that the identical card flipover did not occur and you were just tired.

I've had sticky buttons and machines turn off competely on me, but never that. So far. Oh, and touch screens that are severely out of calibration.

Quote: rxwine

I've had sticky buttons and machines turn off competely on me, but never that. So far. Oh, and touch screens that are severely out of calibration.

Me too RX. And it's always advised not to play on machines that have mechanical or electrical issues and bring the concern up to a casino employee. However, those type of issues are external, not programming or RNG issues which would affect the expected play of the program.

I'd wonder if there is some sort of cognitive explanation for the "same card replacement effect." Oftentimes I discard a card, and when the new one pops up think "that's the same card." But I know that's not possible. It's probable that the image of the previous card is imprinted on your brain, and when a new, similar card appears (same number of pips, layout, color, etc.), you impose the old card upon the new one. If someone really did experience same card replacement, I'd want to see records on paper and an accounting of how many times it took place. I'm not saying it's not possible.

I'm throwing this out: Why is it that whenever anyone brings up an odd issue with the vp machines, they're accused of being a troll, being Singer, being drunk, or being plain confused? Damule espouses calling the Gaming Commission. Now there's a good one. Why do people believe that such an agency would want to create a fuss with the casino over something that would take a pretty good slice of time to research?

I've played video poker for about 20 or so years, and while I bought into the "legit" and "everything's on the up&up 100% of the time" (or at least the way we think things should be from what we read on the Internet) the more I played the more I realized there's so many oddities that it's not just coincidence any more. It's also enlightening how this issue has grown in size since the economy's been in trouble.

Teddy: Anything's possible in this world, and anyone can argue anything. I don't really care if there's some hanky-panky or even pre-programmed sh*t going on within the machines that none of us would ever be aware of. I play, I enjoy it, I usually lose, at times I hit it big, and I look forward to my next visit. Each year I lose some, but it turns out to be an overall far cheaper form of entertainment than a lot of other things I'd like to do. It is interesting looking over the stats and asserted oddities of the machines, but if that's really the case wouldn't someone outside of the gaming industry be doing sample testing or running multi-million hand tests? All we do is argue about it with no facts or even quasi-scientific studies. Makes for good entertainment though.

My 2 cents.

Quote: JerryLogan

I'm throwing this out: Why is it that whenever anyone brings up an odd issue with the vp machines, they're accused of being a troll, being Singer, being drunk, or being plain confused? Damule espouses calling the Gaming Commission. Now there's a good one. Why do people believe that such an agency would want to create a fuss with the casino over something that would take a pretty good slice of time to research?

My 2 cents.

Jerry, that's about all your 1st paragraph is worth as a reply here, 2 cents. Do you know anything about computer data management? The gaming commission can plug into a machine's prom and read the card sequences, dealt and drawn, for the history of the prom. It can also read the date and time of all these events. These proms are used in everything today from your home computer to the computer in your car and obviously in gaming machines. So, no, it wouldn't take much time to research at all. May take some time to find out who's responsible and who's committed a crime, but the data can be read very quickly.

Also, why do I accuse posters of being Singer's trolls? Because many of them are. I've been at war with Singer for years, he's a moron. He claims to have won almost 1 million dollars in the past several years of playng his pathetic strategy. Even the best video poker players in the world, and he's not one of them, playing with limitless bankrolls on the highest returning machines don't win that kind of money. How did he? When one of his strategies are proven to be hogwash, he invents another. The guy's a snake oil salesman, and no one is buying.

Lastly, why would the gaming commission want to create a fuss if a casino(s) is cheating? Because it's their job to do so! If the gaming commission was hiding illegal activites, don't you think by now someone would have ratted them out? Besides the casino employees and gaming manufacturing employees that would be in cahoots too. These conspiracy theories are out of control. The Wizard has a picture on his most recent "Ask the Wizard" column on the sister site from a reader of a ten play video poker machine. In the picture shown, dealt are 3 cards to a straight flush and on 3 of the hands the same cards were drawn in the same positions to complete the hand. This is a truely remarkable event. Some people would say that this proves the machines aren't random and that programming is pre-determined. I say, as do most math/stat guys, that this just proves how incredibly random these machines are. As far as 5th card flipovers and the same card returning on the draw, it just ain't happening. The proms in these machines are simple random programs and if they were tampered with or altered the gaming commission would be most interested in knowing about it.

Like most, I am not a computer expert but I rely on real life experiences to guide my philosophy. Your reply seems to be fixated on a world that does not exist. In my 20 years of play I or anyone who I know have never seen any of these Gaming Commission reps supposedly test or look at any machine anywhere. On the flip side I've complained multiple times to the GC and casino bosses about machines I believed to be gaffed. Nothing ever comes of it, nothing's ever tested, I end up being threatened in one way or another, and it ALWAYS ends up getting swept under the rug. There is a reason for that. So just proclaiming you know something about computers and it's all the way you want it to be is unconvincing. I believe they just want to keep us players thinking.

I'm not much into Singer's strategy so again, all I can rely on is what I glean from reading. With all due respect, you sound jealous. He's "a moron"? He hasn't won? How do you know that? Where's he selling strategy or where's it been "proven to be hogwash". I don't see that. In fact, what I DO remember seeing about this person is that he put up a huge cash bet against some local APs that he could prove he DID win what he claimed, it was front page news on a local paper, the AP/AP's talked his/their way out of it, and then THAT made the front page. Captivating reading at the time. This so-called snakeoil moron who is "not a good player" definitely humiliated some and made a lot of people mad. The guy may be arrogant, may have a good-sized bankroll, and may be very abrasive yes. So what, that's gamblers for ya. BTW are you that local AP? (because you said you were at "war" with him.)

I can't even get ONE SF lol! I just believe the cahoots in gaming is between the commission, the manufacturers and the casinos. I don't really expect anything illegal's going on, just stuff we don't know about. But if there were illegal activity then what's the big surprise? There's more slimeballs in the casino industry than in Fortune 500 companies, and money talks. It also pressures. Your friend has an interesting take on all this. We can't do anything about it anyway so I don't know why anyone bothers with it.

Quote: JerryLogan

But if there were illegal activity then what's the big surprise? There's more slimeballs in the casino industry than in Fortune 500 companies, and money talks. It also pressures. Your friend has an interesting take on all this. We can't do anything about it anyway so I don't know why anyone bothers with it.

I also agree 100%.
Who remembers Larry Volk and the American Coin Machine Company?
Google that one.
here is a link
We live in a perfect world... don't we all?
Casinos have always been 100% honest, just like the US Government and Wall Street.

enjoy

Because if the casinos were cheating on VP, all they'd have to do is rig the RNG on the draw, so winning hands won't appear as often. They woulnd't be stupid enough to let the players see them cheating.

Quote: Nareed

Because if the casinos were cheating on VP, all they'd have to do is rig the RNG on the draw, so winning hands won't appear as often. They woulnd't be stupid enough to let the players see them cheating.

There is no "IF"
"Because the casinos were cheating on VP..."

The only place where I've seen the same cards come back in VP is in New York State which has Class II machines. For example if you were dealt four of a kind and you were dumb enough to throw away one of the four it would return the same card to you.

I find it difficult to believe that the same card would come back after a discard, but the only way to convince gaming is photo or video evidence. I would keep notes on paper or use your cell phone camera to videotape your action.

Jerry, if casinos were indeed cheating, they would be offering much better games to us and then using the cheat to take our money:

- In blackjack, all games would be the 0.16% HE, except the casino would remove a couple of 10s from the shoe.
- In roulette, get rid of the 00, but set the ball up to land on the single zero more often.
- In Craps, weigh the dice for more seven outs then offer a free promotion for the Fire Bet.
- In Video Poker, why not offer full pay tables for all games, but simply vary the RNG to cheat or return the same losing card.

People are dumb enough to play non-full pay tables, even when there is a better game at the next machine. Slots are easier to program to cheat.

Quote: boymimbo

Jerry, if casinos were indeed cheating, they would be offering much better games to us and then using the cheat to take our money:

- In blackjack, all games would be the 0.16% HE, except the casino would remove a couple of 10s from the shoe.
- In roulette, get rid of the 00, but set the ball up to land on the single zero more often.
- In Craps, weigh the dice for more seven outs then offer a free promotion for the Fire Bet.
- In Video Poker, why not offer full pay tables for all games, but simply vary the RNG to cheat or return the same losing card.

People are dumb enough to play non-full pay tables, even when there is a better game at the next machine. Slots are easier to program to cheat.

I'll only address vp machines because that's mainly what I play. Like I mentioned, I'm not sure there's gaffing going on or if what's happening is according to internal memos between the regulatory authority/casinos/gaming manufacturers. All I can say is if I were to bet with a doubter that SOMETHING other than what we gamblers believe is common knowledge is going on, I believe I'd win that bet. As you probably know, it would take a very miniscule programming command in the code to make a 100% random selection of cards a <100% overall event. Is it legal? Based on what the state shows us, no. But is it within some allowable margin of error that we do not see? Heaven only knows. But whatever it is it's enough to keep me playing (:

I remember when there were many many full pay vp games in the 90's. They've been going away of course and still continue to do so. I've played enough to know that no one can really beat those things at any pay table, especially the ones that are touted as being over 100% by a very insignificant amount. So why are they going the route of the dinosaurs when they shouldn't be? I believe it's greedy management, which is stupid management. These dummies can't see that more players mean more profit, and better pay tables get more players.