WPT 3x All-in Hold 'Em -- Bad Variance
July 1st, 2011 at 11:21:05 AM
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Allow me to whine for a bit.
In AZ casinos, they have WPT 3x All-in Hold 'Em. As you can see on the Wizard's page, this is quite a favorable game for the player with odds very close to true poker. The house edge is 0.74% on the base bet, with a 0.15% element of risk. In fact, according to discount gambling.net, if you can see other players' cards you can get a small edge.
I play $10 on the ante with $30 behind, so $40 on every bet. I use the collusion strategy. My expected loss (win) should be around ($1.53) an hour.
I am down $1,500 after four losing sessions.
Okay, so it is just (really) bad variance, but why do I always have to start out on the downslope? Can't I ever get ahead first?
In AZ casinos, they have WPT 3x All-in Hold 'Em. As you can see on the Wizard's page, this is quite a favorable game for the player with odds very close to true poker. The house edge is 0.74% on the base bet, with a 0.15% element of risk. In fact, according to discount gambling.net, if you can see other players' cards you can get a small edge.
I play $10 on the ante with $30 behind, so $40 on every bet. I use the collusion strategy. My expected loss (win) should be around ($1.53) an hour.
I am down $1,500 after four losing sessions.
Okay, so it is just (really) bad variance, but why do I always have to start out on the downslope? Can't I ever get ahead first?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 1st, 2011 at 11:59:10 AM
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I don't know the game, so my response is only regarding your last statement/questions.
When I play BJ on here or Bodog(practice mode) it seems that I always go down before going up, which I don't understand. Sometimes after starting with $1k I'll get down to about $920 or so before I can pull myself back up to even or maybe a little ahead(I guess that's the variance thing happening). Rarely do I go up a hundred or whatever number then fall back down to even or below.
When I play BJ on here or Bodog(practice mode) it seems that I always go down before going up, which I don't understand. Sometimes after starting with $1k I'll get down to about $920 or so before I can pull myself back up to even or maybe a little ahead(I guess that's the variance thing happening). Rarely do I go up a hundred or whatever number then fall back down to even or below.
July 1st, 2011 at 12:04:11 PM
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Ouch. Do you see others winning? Two friends and I poured a fair amount of cash down the throat of an Ultimate Texas Hold'Em machine/table (the one with Blackjack on the other side), before it seemed clear that we were getting outdrawn on every board. The only wins were coming from the bonus bets. It makes me suspicious that the hands are programmed to be distributed in favor of the dealer.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 1st, 2011 at 1:43:53 PM
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" I am down $1,500 after four losing sessions."
How many hands over those 4 sessions ??
How many hands over those 4 sessions ??
July 1st, 2011 at 2:01:29 PM
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Oh, maybe 15 hours of play total, and since I play at full table mostly, say 675 hands.
Just bad cards, nothing big and when I do get big cards dealer pairs his hole cards, or makes a flush, or ... There was a lot of dealer head-shaking and sympathetic tsk-ing. Oy, was it ugly. Other people seemed to do alright. I felt like Doyle Brunson he when contemplated retirement.
Just bad cards, nothing big and when I do get big cards dealer pairs his hole cards, or makes a flush, or ... There was a lot of dealer head-shaking and sympathetic tsk-ing. Oy, was it ugly. Other people seemed to do alright. I felt like Doyle Brunson he when contemplated retirement.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 1st, 2011 at 2:12:15 PM
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.....
July 1st, 2011 at 5:59:27 PM
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Quote: gofaster87I cant really be sympathetic on this one. I dont trust digital dealers dealing a computerized game. What are gaming commission rules on these electronic tables? Other jurisdictions outside Vegas seem to treat these as slots so I would think that chipping changes percentages or perhaps they have to be as random as a real dealt game?
It's supposed to be that way, but man, it always seems the dealer catches an over pair on the river, when I had the top pair on the flop, or catches the high end of the straight while I have the low end, etc.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 1st, 2011 at 8:42:09 PM
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What do you mean by$30 behind the line ??
July 14th, 2011 at 7:16:10 AM
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Ugh. Made a slight recovery, then dropped $900 in an hour-and-a-half session. This is weird to have all these huge losses. I feel like I am on the ultra-tail end here.
So disheartening.
So disheartening.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
February 4th, 2013 at 12:37:39 PM
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Where in Vegas is this game offered. I'm going to be back out in March and want to give it a go for fun.
February 4th, 2013 at 1:07:42 PM
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Nowhere. Bellagio used to have the only one in town but they got rid of it.Quote: kmumfWhere in Vegas is this game offered. I'm going to be back out in March and want to give it a go for fun.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
February 4th, 2013 at 1:39:27 PM
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Ohh well thanks for replying.
February 4th, 2013 at 4:50:05 PM
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Deleted.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
February 4th, 2013 at 4:50:55 PM
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Deleted.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
