Casino Special Offer
1) Baccarat, Min bet = $100, Max bet = $10000
2) Player buy chips worth 60K with cash 60K and casino will give chips worth 30K for FREE. Total chips = 90K.
3) You CAN'T cash out the chips until your chips total amount worth MORE than 90K, the amount you can cash out = current chips amount - 90K. You can cash out as many times as you like. For example, after few rounds of betting, your total chips is worth 125K, you can cash out 35K ONLY, after cashing out, your remaining chips is 90K, and you can continue to play. You will lose all your chips eventually. Please note that you may have chance to cash out many times before lose all 90K.
My betting strategy, bet on BANKER only, cash out once your total chips more than 90K :-
a) Bet 3k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $2970, no of rounds = 853 before lose all.
b) Bet 6k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $14430, no of rounds = 246 before lose all.
c) Bet 10k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $19750, no of rounds = 97 before lose all.
Anyone/Eliot would like to check my figure?
Hands Dealt | Bet Size | Rounds | Winnings | Take Outs | Average | Hands per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 591 812 | $90,000 | 35 964 992 | $3,159,743,899,500 | 36 956 069 | $87,856 | 2.241 |
80 591 679 | $10,000 | 829 362 | $66,264,174,577 | 7 749 302 | $79,898 | 97.173 |
80 594 929 | $5,000 | 234 434 | $16,956,905,770 | 4 047 924 | $72,331 | 343.785 |
80 591 223 | $2,000 | 46 792 | $2,530,502,736 | 1 527 781 | $54,080 | 1722.329 |
80 589 799 | $1,000 | 15 754 | $563,196,512 | 682 328 | $35,749 | 5115.513 |
I don't understand what you've written. Can you cash out *everything* once you are over $90k? or just the surplus? In other words, what is the relevance of the $30k in free chips?Quote: ssho88A casino offers this game to me :-
1) Baccarat, Min bet = $100, Max bet = $10000
2) Player buy chips worth 60K with cash 60K and casino will give chips worth 30K for FREE. Total chips = 90K.
3) You CAN'T cash out the chips until your chips total amount worth MORE than 90K, the amount you can cash out = current chips amount - 90K. You can cash out as many times as you like. For example, after few rounds of betting, your total chips is worth 125K, you can cash out 35K ONLY, after cashing out, your remaining chips is 90K, and you can continue to play. You will lose all your chips eventually. Please note that you may have chance to cash out many times before lose all 90K.
My betting strategy, bet on BANKER only, cash out once your total chips more than 90K :-
a) Bet 3k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $2970, no of rounds = 853 before lose all.
b) Bet 6k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $14430, no of rounds = 246 before lose all.
c) Bet 10k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $19750, no of rounds = 97 before lose all.
Anyone/Eliot would like to check my figure?
Thinking about it, I suppose the $30k just moves the lower boundary further away, giving you extra chances to cash out. Okay. You (or someone on your team) are a strong programmer. You are probably right. I would also do this by simulation. [Edit. see next post.]
I simulated 100M players betting $10k per round. I got 97.16 rounds, on average, and $19,820 in profit, on average.Quote: ssho88A casino offers this game to me :-
c) Bet 10k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $19750, no of rounds = 97 before lose all.
Anyone/Eliot would like to check my figure?
Quote: teliotI don't understand what you've written. Can you cash out *everything* once you are over $90k? or just the surplus? In other words, what is the relevance of the $30k in free chips?
Thinking about it, I suppose the $30k just moves the lower boundary further away, giving you extra chances to cash out. Okay. You (or someone on your team) are a strong programmer. You are probably right. I would also do this by simulation.
You are correct, you only can cash out the surplus and the 30k give you extra chances to cash out.
Quote: teliotI simulated 100M players betting $10k per round. I got 97.16 rounds, on average, and $19,820 in profit, on average.
Thanks for your verification. My team mate did it :=)
Someone will be out of a job soon, I fear. Probably some nice lady with 2 kids, who really needs her job. Or maybe the pressure was on some low-level marketing team to come up with a promotion for their high rollers in a highly competitive market. Who knows, it could even be the director of marketing. But this will be bad news for some nice people, regardless of how incompetent they may be. Just so you know, there is often collateral damage, not just monetary damage.Quote: ssho88Thanks for your verification. My team mate did it :=)
On the other hand, if not you, then someone else.
Quote: teliotSomeone will be out of a job soon, I fear. Probably some nice lady with 2 kids, who really needs her job. Or maybe the pressure was on some low-level marketing team to come up with a promotion for their high rollers in a highly competitive market. Who knows, it could even be the director of marketing. But this will be bad news for some nice people, regardless of how incompetent they may be. Just so you know, there is often collateral damage, not just monetary damage.
Do you think that casinos care about million of gamblers out there ? There are also many gamblers with more than 3 kids .You want us to care about casino staffs ?
We are beating their own game within rules set by them.
You posted here, I answered here, so the information is available and it is public. I have met my personal standard for public visibility for my work on advantage play, so whatever happens is okay by me. Poorly conceived ideas should get their due. The best education is the school of hard knocks.Quote: ssho88You want us to care about casino staffs ?
Whether you care or not, still, too bad for those nice people. There are very few jobs out there where the consequence of one person doing a good job is that another person loses their job. Maybe lawyers.
Quote: teliotYou posted here, I answered here, so the information is available and it is public. I have met my personal standard for public visibility for my work on advantage play, so whatever happens is okay by me. Poorly conceived ideas should get their due. The best education is the school of hard knocks.
Whether you care or not, still, too bad for those nice people. There are very few jobs out there where the consequence of one person doing a good job is that another person loses their job. Maybe lawyers.
Do you think that all those gamblers are not nice people ? Why you don't care about these people and ONLY care about casino staffs ?
I will stop this topic here.
Some APs are very nice people. Some are sociopaths. Some casino employees are very nice people. Some are sociopaths. I have known all sorts on both sides.Quote: ssho88Do you think that all those gamblers are not nice people ? Why you don't care about these people and ONLY care about casino staffs ?
I will stop this topic here.
I obviously care about some APs. You may have forgotten, just last year I was Phil Ivey's expert witness.
That said, I am not sure which side you are on. On the one hand "inviting" me to be on your team. Then, shortly after, saying "very well said, kman" in the lucky 8 thread,
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/22351-lucky-8/5/
Do you honestly think I steal my code from someone else? That nothing I do is original? Just because I won't show this guy my code? That's the type of behavior that APs do that I just don't get. In my case, APS make stuff up and then jump on each other to agree with that made up stuff. It's been going on for a decade and it is still going on.
Ssho88, if you ask me a question, I will answer it because we both are intellectually curious. But, pick one, please. Sociopath or nice guy.
Quote: Do you honestly think I steal my code from someone else? That nothing I do is original? Just because I won't show this guy my code?[/q
I never said that you steal code from someone else. Did I say that ?
You probably care about Phil Ivey but have you care about gamblers who lose all their money to the casinos and not able to feed their kids ? I want to be nice guy and Sociopath, depends on the people who I am dealing with.
Then, tell me, what did you mean when you said "well said?" What part of kman's rant were you referring to? The part about my website not having content (that it did, in fact, have)? I assumed that you were referring to the entire statement, as you didn't restrict your comments to some part of kman's rant.Quote: ssho88I never said that you steal code from someone else. Did I say that ?
Very Zen of you.Quote:I want to be nice guy and Sociopath, depends on the people who I am dealing with.
Quote: teliotThen, tell me, what did you mean when you said "well said?" What part of kman's rant were you referring to? The part about my website not having content (that it did, in fact, have)? I assumed that you were referring to the entire statement, as you didn't restrict your comments to some part of kman's rant.
Very Zen of you.
I am referring to the part about your website not having content and nothing to do with the codes. I believe you can write your own codes. Fair ?
Okay, but I put all the stuff back on my website a full month prior to kman's post. So even then, you don't look very good there.Quote: ssho88I am referring to the part about your website not having content and nothing to do with the codes. I believe you can write your own codes. Fair ?
Quote: teliotOkay, but I put all the stuff back on my website a full month prior to kman's post. So even then, you don't look very good there.
I am not aware you put back all the stuff prior to kman's post.
It took me 3 days to put it all back. I completed the work on May 16. Kman's post was made June 16. There you go.Quote: ssho88I am not aware you put back all the stuff prior to kman's post.
Nothing special about you here. APs do this all the time to me. One AP will make something up or get his facts wrong. Others just assume it's true and pile on in agreement. I'm an easy target. Truth doesn't matter.
Are you going to answer above question in previous post ?
So, you care about the kids of the gamblers(the very small number who have a gambling problem) but not the kids of the casino employees?Quote: ssho88You probably care about Phil Ivey but have you care about gamblers who lose all their money to the casinos and not able to feed their kids ?
Are you going to answer above question in previous post ?
The real question is if you believe in the "Robin Hood" defense to being an AP? That is, do you feel as though you are doing some good for society by beating casinos?
Look, this has been a fun exchange. Don't get me wrong here, I am one of your biggest fans. But, you will forgive me if I don't dive into this question. We need to save some energy for our next math project.
We have some people who are both casino employees and AP's. I think they are the most qualified to weigh in on all this talk and concern about nice people losing casino jobs. Casino employees can be sociopaths as well. What about darksiders who cost nice AP's their jobs? Casino cause far more damaged to people than AP's.Quote: teliotYou posted here, I answered here, so the information is available and it is public. I have met my personal standard for public visibility for my work on advantage play, so whatever happens is okay by me. Poorly conceived ideas should get their due. The best education is the school of hard knocks.
Whether you care or not, still, too bad for those nice people. There are very few jobs out there where the consequence of one person doing a good job is that another person loses their job. Maybe lawyers.
Quote: teliotSo, you care about the kids of the gamblers(the very small number who have a gambling problem) but not the kids of the casino employees?
I care kids of gamblers more than casino employees
Quote: The real question is if you believe in the "Robin Hood" defense to being an AP? That is, do you feel as though you are doing some good for society by beating casinos?
Look, this has been a fun exchange. Don't get me wrong here, I am one of your biggest fans. But, you will forgive me if I don't dive into this question. We need to save some energy for our next math project.[/q
Just to inform that "Robin Hood" is my hero since my childhood. I don't want to spend too much time on this topic.
Heads may or may not roll, so I think you would actually have to determine the probable number of heads rolling, assign a dollar value to those heads and then compare that dollar value to the dollar value that the APs are most likely to make.
One also has to consider that some of the income from the heads that roll will be replaced by the, probably slightly lesser, income earned by the new heads. Unless, of course, we want to believe that the casino would not replace those positions.
If you are a Keynesian, like myself, then you believe that active money is good money. While APs certainly reinvest their money in other AP pursuits, at the same time, some of the money that they win (read: earn) must also go towards base goods. Even more so if they have kids, but again, we don't really know for sure who does or does not have more kids amongst these two groups.
Either way, AP is undoubtedly a form of employment, even if it is self-employment, and if nobody were to AP this promotion, then nobody gains.
That having been said, given that most, if not all, jobs left vacant because of the rolling heads would be replaced...arguably...with people just as likely to have kids as the previous job holders, AP is an Economic good.
Quote: teliotIt took me 3 days to put it all back. I completed the work on May 16. Kman's post was made June 16. There you go.
Nothing special about you here. APs do this all the time to me. One AP will make something up or get his facts wrong. Others just assume it's true and pile on in agreement. I'm an easy target. Truth doesn't matter.
I believe in your book thread you stated in no uncertain terms that the information edited from your site would not be restored. If Kman is not a regular visitor to your site he may not have known that everything has been put back.
So, you are defending kman. Curious tactic to defend and make excuses for the indefensible.Quote: SlackJawYokelI believe in your book thread you stated in no uncertain terms that the information edited from your site would not be restored. If Kman is not a regular visitor to your site he may not have known that everything has been put back.
I am looking for that statement in my book. I can't find it (but then, I've been drinking). Care to remind me where it is?
Quote: teliotSo, you are defending kman. Curious tactic to defend and make excuses for the indefensible.
I am looking for that statement in my book. I can't find it (but then, I've been drinking). Care to remind me where it is?
No, SlackJawYokel means in the thread on this site promoting the book.
On Pages 1 & 2 of that thread, you stated that the information had been removed from APHeat.
On Page 7 of that thread:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/21568-book-announcement-advanced-advantage-play/7/#post446957
You replied to Axelwolf that you would not be putting the removed information back on APHeat. Specifically, you said, "I can't imagine doing that in any Universe."
There's obviously nothing binding you to that statement, but that's what SJY is referring to.
Obviously you do get attacked sometimes and I would agree that often it's unfairly. Sometimes I've joined in, sometimes I've defended you to an extent. Certainly the opinions are often biased or exaggerated claims based on what side of the industry one works on, it's difficult not to to an extent.
Quote: mcallister3200It's an industry where often enough people get/lose jobs based on who they're friends with more than most other fields, at least it worked that way in Vegas the brief time I worked for a casino. In cases like this at least if heads roll they deserve it and should be in another occupation if they're that arithmetically challenged.
I've always been able to get jobs based on doing good work, even here in Vegas. And I agree, if someone can't do their job well, they really should find something they are better at. No one likes to have a coworker bring the team down with incompetence.
And I like AP's since they keep me busy but there are plenty of other things for me to watch so... Casino employees lives matter!
Really, kman, followed by kman apologist SJY, followed by SJY apologist M146. There is no doubt that kman knew exactly what he was saying -- I re-read his original emails to me. Sometimes APs write polite emails to me, and we have what I consider to be a professional, or even friendly, exchange. Rarely do I get blindsided by someone using these exchanges to attack me. That is the case here.Quote: Mission146No, SlackJawYokel means in the thread on this site promoting the book.
Quote: MissEye
And I like AP's since they keep me busy but there are plenty of other things for me to watch so... Casino employees lives matter!
Brilliant!!!
There's another excellent perspective that plays into my Microeconomics point:
Let us consider a world where there are no beatable promotions, beatable table games and probably to a lesser extent, beatable slots. I believe that Teliot may well go back to being a professor in such a world. I also think that, with no AP's to speak of, there are likely going to be fewer jobs in surveillance, as well. Also, if there are no AP's, and if we assume that many AP's would not frequent casinos if there is nothing to AP, then there are less people in the casino which might create less of a need for cocktail waitresses, slot attendants and the like.
Let's take it a step further and we'll also eliminate cheaters and thieves, who have nothing to do with AP, but there are casino positions that exist to combat them. At this point, you're going to have, what, maybe one person whose job it is to watch the Tables on the camera just for honest-to-goodness payout mistakes? I'm not saying that thieves and cheaters are necessarily an Economic positive, but on the other hand, employing the people that have to deal with thieves and cheaters do result in such people getting checks and buying Base Goods.
Also, without all of the above people, if one owned a casino, one would likely not seek out the most advanced surveillance equipment because a simple setup would likely be sufficient if all one is really watching for is legitimate dealer mistakes.
Thus, it could be argued that, in spite of Marketing people whose heads may roll (and will likely be replaced) that Advantage Players create jobs in casinos simply by attempting to win money at the casino. It is also arguable that cheaters and thieves create jobs because someone has to be employed to try to stop them from doing what they are doing.
Quote: Mission146Brilliant!!!
There's another excellent perspective that plays into my Microeconomics point:
Let us consider a world where there are no beatable promotions, beatable table games and probably to a lesser extent, beatable slots. I believe that Teliot may well go back to being a professor in such a world. I also think that, with no AP's to speak of, there are likely going to be fewer jobs in surveillance, as well. Also, if there are no AP's, and if we assume that many AP's would not frequent casinos if there is nothing to AP, then there are less people in the casino which might create less of a need for cocktail waitresses, slot attendants and the like.
Let's take it a step further and we'll also eliminate cheaters and thieves, who have nothing to do with AP, but there are casino positions that exist to combat them. At this point, you're going to have, what, maybe one person whose job it is to watch the Tables on the camera just for honest-to-goodness payout mistakes? I'm not saying that thieves and cheaters are necessarily an Economic positive, but on the other hand, employing the people that have to deal with thieves and cheaters do result in such people getting checks and buying Base Goods.
Also, without all of the above people, if one owned a casino, one would likely not seek out the most advanced surveillance equipment because a simple setup would likely be sufficient if all one is really watching for is legitimate dealer mistakes.
Thus, it could be argued that, in spite of Marketing people whose heads may roll (and will likely be replaced) that Advantage Players create jobs in casinos simply by attempting to win money at the casino. It is also arguable that cheaters and thieves create jobs because someone has to be employed to try to stop them from doing what they are doing.
Yep, half my job is due to cheaters and thieves. I'm grateful for them :) And also bad dealers who make mistakes and have to be reviewed. My bread and butter!
Quote: teliotHow do you know what he means? How do you know what kman used as his resource?
I don't know jack about Kman, but SlackJawYokel said, "In your book thread..." Please excuse me if that (correctly) led me to believe he was referring to the thread about your book. I usually go with a literal interpretation first, so that's the way I took it.
Furthermore, he clarified in a later post that he meant in your thread announcing the book.
There are only so many ways I can take, "Your book thread."
Given my assumption that I was correct in what he meant, I actually happened to recall the specific conversation which he may have been referring. Therefore, I Searched for your book thread, found it, and made references to it that I felt pertained to the subject matter.
Quote:What both kman and SJY said was very clear and unambigious.
SJY said, "In your book thread." It couldn't have been that unclear, I knew precisely what conversation was being referred to.
Quite frankly, I don't know how you thought he was referring to in the book, itself, when he said, "In your book thread."
Quote:So now you are trying to defend SJY who stated something that is patently false. That's just how it goes, isn't it. Someone says things about me that are false, then someone else coming to his rescue, saying, no, what he meant was ... then someone comes to that guy's rescue ...
The only thing I am defending is he referenced something you said, "In your book thread," and you did, in fact, say it.
Quote:Really, kman, followed by kman apologist SJY, followed by SJY apologist M146.
Just amazing.
Again, I don't know jack about KMan other than something about you not doing your own programming, or some bull like that. If KMan says that you did not write your own programs, then that accusation is baseless and without merit. If SJY believes KMan's bold assertions, then he believes bold assertions that are baseless and without merit.
I'm not defending KMan, and I don't have a, "Side." I'm referring to a conversation that really, objectively, happened and that I could find easily as I recalled it taking place in your book thread.
Sorry, after drinking some more wine and re-reading what you wrote, I edited my original post since I misunderstood you (and other stuff). Now, it is all how it should be.Quote: Mission146
Quote: teliotSorry, after drinking some more wine and re-reading what you wrote, I edited my original post since I misunderstood you (and other stuff). Now, it is all how it should be.
Oh, that's good then, apology accepted.
Quote: ajemeisternot only do you need to win 60k to break even.. but you must consistently win or else be stuck in eternal limbo.. doesn't this affect the HE of online casinos, or at least the RoR because if you don't bet fairly large.. it could take a year or more to get all your money back?
At first I thought it was an online casino. Then I thought I was wrong and it's a brick and mortar. If online this is a bad deal in my opinion. If brick and mortar the theoretical value is awesome but the conditional stipulations make it not worth trying to get that value.
Other than counting. Just what would you be looking for concerning AP's? Including slots, VP, keno, sports etc etc. I'm not talking cheating or ticket vultures ( that you proudly mentioned). Just AP, all kinds. Also how can you tell the difference?Quote: MissEyeI've always been able to get jobs based on doing good work, even here in Vegas. And I agree, if someone can't do their job well, they really should find something they are better at. No one likes to have a coworker bring the team down with incompetence.
And I like AP's since they keep me busy but there are plenty of other things for me to watch so... Casino employees lives matter!
I actually think AP's are more honest and giving than the average person. I think APs spend more and pay more taxes than the average person. Most APs don't get a tax refund.Quote: Mission146Brilliant!!!
There's another excellent perspective that plays into my Microeconomics point:
Let us consider a world where there are no beatable promotions, beatable table games and probably to a lesser extent, beatable slots. I believe that Teliot may well go back to being a professor in such a world. I also think that, with no AP's to speak of, there are likely going to be fewer jobs in surveillance, as well. Also, if there are no AP's, and if we assume that many AP's would not frequent casinos if there is nothing to AP, then there are less people in the casino which might create less of a need for cocktail waitresses, slot attendants and the like.
Let's take it a step further and we'll also eliminate cheaters and thieves, who have nothing to do with AP, but there are casino positions that exist to combat them. At this point, you're going to have, what, maybe one person whose job it is to watch the Tables on the camera just for honest-to-goodness payout mistakes? I'm not saying that thieves and cheaters are necessarily an Economic positive, but on the other hand, employing the people that have to deal with thieves and cheaters do result in such people getting checks and buying Base Goods.
Also, without all of the above people, if one owned a casino, one would likely not seek out the most advanced surveillance equipment because a simple setup would likely be sufficient if all one is really watching for is legitimate dealer mistakes.
Thus, it could be argued that, in spite of Marketing people whose heads may roll (and will likely be replaced) that Advantage Players create jobs in casinos simply by attempting to win money at the casino. It is also arguable that cheaters and thieves create jobs because someone has to be employed to try to stop them from doing what they are doing.
Also some AP's give jobs to people. Sometimes people who couldn't find work elsewhere. Some people don't work well in a normal job environment. There's been people incredibly down on their luck who started by working for someone else. Wasn't Mickey Crimm homeless at one time?
There were quite a few people, especially in the 90's that made a good living and career out of working for teams. Example Frankie Kneeland and his mother worked for a team.
They supported families bought houses cars and whatever you can imagine working for individuals or teams.
Quote: AxelWolfOther than counting. Just what would you be looking for concerning AP's? Including slots, VP, keno, sports etc etc. I'm not talking cheating or ticket vultures ( that you proudly mentioned). Just AP, all kinds. Also how can you tell the difference?
Mostly just counters, hole card cheats, not slot AP. And yes, I am proud when I do my job well as anyone should be. I believe in doing well at something I'm paid to do. Guess I'm crazy like that :)
Quote: MissEyeMostly just counters, hole card cheats, not slot AP. And yes, I am proud when I do my job well as anyone should be. I believe in doing well at something I'm paid to do. Guess I'm crazy like that :)
Hole carding is usually not cheating you know better than that. Offense taken.
Quote: mcallister3200Hole carding is usually not cheating you know better than that. Offense taken.
It's a grey area :) No offense meant. They help us notice dealers who need a little instruction.
Very interesting that, that's all your casino really looks for. Good to know. What casino is it?Quote: MissEyeMostly just counters, hole card cheats, not slot AP. And yes, I am proud when I do my job well as anyone should be. I believe in doing well at something I'm paid to do. Guess I'm crazy like that :)
Quote: AxelWolfVery interesting that, that's all your casino really looks for. Good to know. What casino is it?
There's more than that but we just don't look for slot AP was what I was pointing out. I don't know of any place that does. I can't say where I work.
