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Run in the First Inning Proposition Bet

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April 14th, 2012 at 7:27:38 AM permalink
FinsRule
Member since: Dec 23, 2009
Threads: 90
Posts: 2024
Teams don't change their batting order based on whether or not they are home or away. And you'd think trying to start the game off in the top of the 1st with a run to take the home crowd "out of the game" would be as important as the home team trying to keep the crowd in the game.

Oh well, guess this one is going to have to be unexplainable.
April 14th, 2012 at 7:43:39 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 566
Posts: 10757
Here is the number of runs in the first inning from 2001 to 2011:

Runs in First Inning Away Home
0 19081 18124
1 4219 4477
2 2021 2323
3 932 1144
4 407 510
5 184 206
6 59 97
7 12 21
8 5 7
9 1 6
10 4 7
11 1 2
12 0 1
13 0 0
14 0 1
Total 26926 26926


The standard deviation of the average is 0.0062 on the away team, and 0.0068 on the home team. The perceived shortage of first inning runs by the away team is about 0.005, just eyeballing the graph. So I submit for the consideration of the forum that it is just random variation at play.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
April 14th, 2012 at 7:54:24 AM permalink
boymimbo
Member since: Nov 12, 2009
Threads: 14
Posts: 4315
The home team generally scores more runs in the first inning because their advantage and knowledge of the ball park conditions is a general advantage to them. As well, the visiting pitcher is more predictable as he is not used to the mound and the pitching conditions and is subject to throwing his most familiar pitches first to get used to the conditions, which is scoutable. That pitch is usually a fastball. And of course there is the crowd.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 14th, 2012 at 8:24:33 AM permalink
fremont4ever
Member since: Nov 24, 2009
Threads: 5
Posts: 138
Quote: Wizard
So I submit for the consideration of the forum that it is just random variation at play.


There could be something else at work here. The visitors in the top of the 1st may be more likely to use one-run strategies (e.g. stolen bases, sac hits) to get a lead. It doesn't exactly work (the home team still scores more often in the 1st), but the home team's lead in multiple-run innings and total runs scored is much bigger than their edge in single runs.
April 14th, 2012 at 8:48:30 AM permalink
DanMahowny
Member since: Feb 25, 2012
Threads: 8
Posts: 142
The home team is more likely to be favored to win, so it makes sense that they would score more runs in the first inning.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
April 14th, 2012 at 4:09:23 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 566
Posts: 10757
Quote: DanMahowny
The home team is more likely to be favored to win, so it makes sense that they would score more runs in the first inning.


That isn't the issue.

However, I asked my buddy Jason, who was the guest on my Feb 2 radio show about the topic at hand he said the following.

Quote: Jason
To me logical thinking would have both teams just about exactly even in scoring for the first and second innings. My best guess as to why the home team has an edge would be ballpark conditions. Just being familier with sun angles and lighting could have an affect. Also, it may take a visiting pitcher a bit longer to get used to pitching mound conditions. Lots of pitchers are very picky about the surface when pitching and it would take visiting pitchers longer to adjust. That being said I never expected such a difference in those stats. Very interesting.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
April 14th, 2012 at 4:42:23 PM permalink
WongBo
Member since: Feb 3, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 2126
the home team is favored in virtually EVERY stat.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
April 14th, 2012 at 4:57:13 PM permalink
DeMango
Member since: Feb 2, 2010
Threads: 18
Posts: 941
I went to sleep a little early today. The Rays were up 4 zip (first inning) over Boston. Hellickson had been almost unhittable in his first start. Bucholtz has been terrible to this point with a ERA over 17. Woke up to the final Boston 13 - 5 WTF???
Bring back GR8Player!
April 15th, 2012 at 10:41:16 AM permalink
hhhccc
Member since: Jun 10, 2010
Threads: 11
Posts: 59
Great info! Thanks WOO!

Have you made any bets? Are the sportsbooks pricing it correctly?
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Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard.
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