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Run in the First Inning Proposition Bet
| April 14th, 2012 at 7:27:38 AM permalink | |
| FinsRule Member since: Dec 23, 2009 Threads: 79 Posts: 1548 | Teams don't change their batting order based on whether or not they are home or away. And you'd think trying to start the game off in the top of the 1st with a run to take the home crowd "out of the game" would be as important as the home team trying to keep the crowd in the game. Oh well, guess this one is going to have to be unexplainable. |
| April 14th, 2012 at 7:43:39 AM permalink | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 436 Posts: 8741 | Here is the number of runs in the first inning from 2001 to 2011:
The standard deviation of the average is 0.0062 on the away team, and 0.0068 on the home team. The perceived shortage of first inning runs by the away team is about 0.005, just eyeballing the graph. So I submit for the consideration of the forum that it is just random variation at play. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| April 14th, 2012 at 7:54:24 AM permalink | |
| boymimbo Member since: Nov 12, 2009 Threads: 13 Posts: 3201 | The home team generally scores more runs in the first inning because their advantage and knowledge of the ball park conditions is a general advantage to them. As well, the visiting pitcher is more predictable as he is not used to the mound and the pitching conditions and is subject to throwing his most familiar pitches first to get used to the conditions, which is scoutable. That pitch is usually a fastball. And of course there is the crowd. -----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth! |
| April 14th, 2012 at 8:24:33 AM permalink | |
| fremont4ever Member since: Nov 24, 2009 Threads: 5 Posts: 137 |
There could be something else at work here. The visitors in the top of the 1st may be more likely to use one-run strategies (e.g. stolen bases, sac hits) to get a lead. It doesn't exactly work (the home team still scores more often in the 1st), but the home team's lead in multiple-run innings and total runs scored is much bigger than their edge in single runs. |
| April 14th, 2012 at 8:48:30 AM permalink | |
| DanMahowny Member since: Feb 25, 2012 Threads: 8 Posts: 142 | The home team is more likely to be favored to win, so it makes sense that they would score more runs in the first inning. "I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem." |
| April 14th, 2012 at 4:09:23 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 436 Posts: 8741 |
That isn't the issue. However, I asked my buddy Jason, who was the guest on my Feb 2 radio show about the topic at hand he said the following.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
| April 14th, 2012 at 4:42:23 PM permalink | |
| WongBo Member since: Feb 3, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 2126 | the home team is favored in virtually EVERY stat. In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb. |
| April 14th, 2012 at 4:57:13 PM permalink | |
| DeMango Member since: Feb 2, 2010 Threads: 16 Posts: 606 | I went to sleep a little early today. The Rays were up 4 zip (first inning) over Boston. Hellickson had been almost unhittable in his first start. Bucholtz has been terrible to this point with a ERA over 17. Woke up to the final Boston 13 - 5 WTF??? |
| April 15th, 2012 at 10:41:16 AM permalink | |
| hhhccc Member since: Jun 10, 2010 Threads: 10 Posts: 59 | Great info! Thanks WOO! Have you made any bets? Are the sportsbooks pricing it correctly? |
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