Wiz said 50 points would give you over a 10% edge. Over 100s of bets your bookie likely won't let you play anymore with that edge. I've never met anyone who won more than 55% of the time and didn't get heat or worse.
However, 50 points doesn't mean much once your talking +250 or more. I think 50 points is big when the implied offs are around 50/50 give or take a few points. It's easy to find +300 vs +250 when line/agent shopping. But near impossible to find -120 vs -170.
**For those that really want to see how some of the MAJOR betting collectives do this and win: They even have to lose at times not to get singled out as an +EV bettor.http://www.sloansportsconference.com/content/diamonds-on-the-line-profits-through-investment-gaming/
So, 100 points is 1/3 advantage
50 points is a 1/9 advantage
125 points is a 1/2 advantage
Let p be the points.
If the p <=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*(100)-(1/3)*(200-p))/(200-p)
If p >=100 then the advantage is ((2/3)*p-(1/3)*100)/100
So say I have a bookie that doesn't know anything about MMA and he offers me -120 on a fighter I look up and know for a fact is -170... that's a 50 "points/odds" difference, where as in the first example it was a 140 "points/odds" difference between the two favorite lines. I'd like to be able to get X "points/odds" difference and know what the advantage is.
You might have answered my question, but for some reason with sports the verbiage seems to confuse me a bit. I apologize for any ambiguity.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 2, 2017