SM777
SM777
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March 15th, 2017 at 10:05:10 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I was quite aware of 'how it works'. I am just surprised at the odds you quote. I would take all non UNC teams in their region laying 12-10 in a heartbeat. And Gonzaga only +160?
You of course know that with the spread built in Kansas plus 215 really equates to a less than 30% chance to win? The lines are not meant to be fair, they have a built in vig. Kind of like when an MMA favorite is -120 and the underdog is -105.



This is copy and pasted from your previous post in here: "They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds."

That's not how it works.

The lines quoted are all 10cents worse than what Pinnacle was offering as the post was made. I'm aware how sports betting works as well, and if you're betting at a book that is using -120 and -105 on the same fight, you need to find a new book.
TomG
TomG
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March 15th, 2017 at 8:50:56 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Which #1 seed is better than 30% chance to make final 4? None to me.....



Villanova and Gonzaga for sure have a better than 30% chance. And I say North Carolina has a better than 40% chance. Care to bet on any of those teams at those odds?
SM777
SM777
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March 15th, 2017 at 9:12:04 PM permalink
Current lines at Westgate as of the moment this post is submitted:

#1 seed Gonzaga to win the West region = +150 = 40% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Villanova to win the East region = +160 = 38.5% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed North Carolina to win the South region = EVEN money = 50% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Kansas to win the Midwest region = +175 = 36% chance to make the Final Four


Literally EVERY #1 seed has a minimum of a 36% chance to make the Final Four.....
TomG
TomG
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March 15th, 2017 at 9:18:55 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Current lines at Westgate as of the moment this post is submitted:

#1 seed Gonzaga to win the West region = +150 = 40% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Villanova to win the East region = +160 = 38.5% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed North Carolina to win the South region = EVEN money = 50% chance to make the Final Four
#1 seed Kansas to win the Midwest region = +175 = 36% chance to make the Final Four



If the odds the sportsbook is offering is the same as the odds of the event happening, that would mean they are making zero revenue (and must be losing quite a bit of money by paying for employees and other expenses). Somehow I doubt that is true
SM777
SM777
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March 15th, 2017 at 9:23:52 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

If the odds the sportsbook is offering is the same as the odds of the event happening, that would mean they are making zero revenue (and must be losing quite a bit of money by paying for employees and other expenses). Somehow I doubt that is true



I get it. I worked behind the counter making numbers and managing risk for over 5 years. There's a built in advantage. Take those numbers, add in 25cents to each number for your juice, and you'll still have all four #1 seeds with a greater than 30% chance to make the Final Four.

Better yet, use Pinnacle's (the most generous accessible offshore) numbers which I quoted earlier, and you'll still have every #1 seed over 30% to make the Final Four.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 16th, 2017 at 3:29:14 AM permalink
Quote: TomG
"If the odds the sportsbook is offering is the same as the odds of the EVENT HAPPENING,, that would mean they are making zero revenue (and must be losing quite a bit of money by paying for employees and other expenses). Somehow I doubt that is true."

Not really. The odds could reflect a perceived or real (actual money bet) bias and they could then be offering worse than fair odds (after considering the juice) on the event NOT HAPPENING.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 16, 2017
"gambling improves the flavor of life" ................... Nick the Greek
Mission146
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Mission146
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March 16th, 2017 at 8:24:08 PM permalink
The easy way to figure that out would be to determine (for each individual bracket) what the implied probabilities are based on the odds and seeing how far under 100% the total ends up being. I'm not going to do it because I don't care at all about basketball, but that's how you could do it.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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