lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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June 12th, 2017 at 12:26:41 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

It always bugs me not knowing anything about how much you might win.


that is definitely one of the main things that makes you question your sanity when betting horses. there are quite a few others. to be fair, there are some good days when your payout is more then you anticipated.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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June 12th, 2017 at 4:38:21 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Is there a way to see how much a trifecta or superfecta will pay before a race, or even after if not before? For that matter, place or show too.



Trifecta - Superfecta - No.

Place and Show you would need to develop your own formula and plug in the pools. Then you could show what each combination would pay out. The only practical use for that formula would be in contests. Or if you're a huge bettor, and those extra $.20 are really $200.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 15th, 2017 at 2:31:21 AM permalink
if you see a 3/5 or lower fave and you think he's a bum if you bet place or show on another horse and this bet scores and the fave is out of place or show you often get an inflated payout
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 15, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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June 15th, 2017 at 5:00:09 AM permalink
^True enough. "Inflated payout" in that case can mean that place or show wagers may pay more than win bets, and sometimes a lot more. Done that, been there, and plan to win the "Chalk Stomping" t-shirt for that again when I think the opportunity arises. And for a more boring use of show pools in the opposite direction, by becoming a totally shameless chalk eating weasel...

If someone pays careful attention to such things and knows exactly what they're looking for, because of some peculiarities in the precise way pools are distributed in North American racing, there are actually some circumstances involving a heavy favorite in a field of a certain specific size, in which it becomes possible to make show wagers on multiple horses in the same race in such a way that one can be absolutely positively mathematically certain of a guaranteed profit (for a small percentage of total amounts wagered) on show bets, regardless of the outcome of that race. That circumstance isn't common enough to exist every day, but it does come up a lot more often than every month. And no, I will not go into more detail here beyond that intentionally vague description.
Nevermind.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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June 17th, 2017 at 2:45:15 AM permalink
DD - Yes, it happens. But you need to find the 100K in cash quick to make your guaranteed 1K. It's usually not more than 1-2%.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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June 17th, 2017 at 3:56:41 AM permalink
david sklansky the poker writer wrote something i liked quite a bit about horse and sports betting. he said you find an edge by finding a mistake in the pricing (i.e.: you believe the bettors overestimated the class angle.) but only get interested if you understand why the mistake was made. if the line looks off and you don't know why, leave it alone. maybe somebody knows something you don't know.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiraclebeachbumbabs
June 18th, 2017 at 7:10:34 PM permalink
I'm a winner! My other horse won her debut race at Arlington today in the 8th. 10-1 and ran a fast time! Yeah, I only own a tiny bit of her, but it sure was an amazing experience. I'm still smiling.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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July 23rd, 2017 at 6:51:17 PM permalink
Sonneteer finally broke his maiden by a nose on the turf tonight. Is he still considered eligible in maiden races on the dirt?
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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July 29th, 2017 at 3:11:15 PM permalink
Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing racing soon in rave 10 Saratoga.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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July 29th, 2017 at 3:23:28 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing racing soon in rave 10 Saratoga.

Good Samaritan, a dirt maiden beats then by 5 lengths closing. Looks like Cloud Computing last, Always Dreaming show with five horses in the race. This race puts the reputation of Classic Empire way up.

Added: Neck sweats were visible on Always Dreaming looking hot before the race.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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